Restoring America's Honor Posted by Morton H. Halperin

As I write, the current session of the United States Congress is nearing its end. Congress is never at its best when it seeks to draft complicated legislation as it races for the door. Now it is close to banning torture and other cruel and inhuman treatment -- as it should. But at the same time it is close to limiting access to the courts to enforce this rule -- which it should not do.

Of the many issues in play in these last days none is more consequential for our own democracy, and for our ability to influence Iraqi and other behavior, than the debate over the Graham-Levin provisions seeking to limit the right of judicial review for those held in Guantanamo. This provision was written on the Senate floor without benefit of hearings and is now being rewritten in secret by conferees with little knowledge or understanding of what is at stake. This provision would undercut the intent of the McCain amendment banning torture, which this administration has now accepted. As Senate Judiciary Chairman Arlen Specter has urged, the provision should be stripped from the Defense Authorization bill now in conference and sent to the Judiciary Committee for hearings.

The QDR:Dreaming of the USSR Posted by Lorelei Kelly

Big sigh...it looks like any forward thinking hopes for the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) are unwarranted.  This is the every-four-years defense document that supposedly re-orients the US military to think creatively in the face of new threats.  From early press reports, it appears the inspiration for this document is circa 1985--when we just counted the Soviet's toys and then made more for ourselves. The USSR remains-- like a phantom limb that we chase until we collapse-- in the QDR.  All the Cold War platforms were spared--and will supposedly be paid for by cutting personnel.  This, despite the manpower crunch in the military and the need for human intelligence, civil affairs, policy, public health, foreign force training and languages.

I would carp on about the defense industry (who are unaccountable slackers these days in contrast to their role in developing strategy post WWII) but most of the blame for these priorities still lays squarely with Congress. The members, after all, control ALL the money. And when they aren't busy protecting the symbols and traditions of Christmas--they talk a good deal  about China in order to justify the hardware heavy defense priorities that provide the whistle stop for the gravy train in their districts.  Yet the US spends as much on its research and development every year as China does on its entire defense budget. Tom Barnett writing in Esquire nicely demolishes the "China is coming" hype.  Yet --as he points out--there sure are lots of Members of the Armed Services Committee on the new congressional "China Caucus"  hmmmmmm....

"Why the Strong Lose" is a current Parameters article by Army author Jeff Record.  His premise in the article is that all major failed US uses of force since 1945—in Vietnam, Lebanon, and Somalia—have been against materially weaker enemies and also that "the US military’s historical aversion to counterinsurgency is a function of 60 years of preoccupation with high-technology conventional warfare against other states and accelerated substitution of machines for combat manpower, most notably aerial standoff precision firepower for large ground forces. "  Here's the long version for a good overview.

The QDR looks like it will fly in the face of other positive developments--like the recent White House  directive that gives the State Department lead-agency responsibility in post conflict peace building (what they call "transformational" diplomacy)  This directive dovetails nicely with the Defense Department's new directive on Stability Operations--which makes post conflict skills a core military mission.  But none of these ideas will get any traction if Congress does not start leading the charge.

Speaking of defense manpower, here are two hopeful items from West Point: a new project called "Beyond War" and news that the West Point Model United Nations team has finished its most successful year in team history--taking first place at every conference in 2005.

Like Clausewitz said, it's people, stupid.

Odd Man Out in Asia Posted by Suzanne Nossel

This is an interesting but disturbing piece about the consolidation and integration underway in Asia which, for the first time since WWII is creating an alliance that expressly excludes the US.

The first-ever East Asia Summit convenes Wednesday and will involve 16 nations including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Idonesia, Australia and New Zealand.  This is the first regional grouping to include both China and India, who have opted to deliberately leave us out.

Those who have had the mindshare for anything apart from the fight against terror and WMD have been talking about the pressing need for the US to deepen its alliances with India and others in order to secure our foothold in a rapidly changing Asia, and create forums for joint action with those that share our cautiousness about China's rapid rise.  But Bush's most recent visit to the region was a breather from the relentless pressures in Iraq more than anything else.

The perception among some commentators in the region is that the Administration's single-minded focus on terrorism has come at the expense of Asian priorities, leaving a power vaccuum that China has filled.   This seems right to me.   We may look back on the last 5 years as a period in which we dropped the ball, overlooking critical realignments that may leave American power fundamentally weaker for reasons having little to do with terrorism and WMD.   

Chinese military and economic power and its appetite for resouces are growing exponentially.   Our values, our culture, and our political system are potentially formidable factors that should shore up America's global influence.   But the persuasive power of our values, culture, etc. have been fundamentally eroded over the last 5 years, and China has taken advantage of the gap we've left.   If we're not careful, we may look back on the convening of the East Asian Summit as a milestone along the road to diminished US influence in Asia and around the globe.

Global Good News Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Five beacons of hope from around the world, to put you in a holiday mood:

Democracy is on the march at ASEAN.  Famously non-interventionist East Asian leaders have had it with the Burmese junta, and are telling them so.

Peace Process in Aceh, Indonesia on track.  So says the International Crisis Group:

The Aceh peace process is working beyond all expectations. Guerrillas of the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) have turned in the required number of weapons. The Indonesian military (Tentara Nasional Indonesia, TNI) has withdrawn troops on schedule. The threat of militia violence has not materialised. Amnestied prisoners have returned home without incident. The international Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM), led by the European Union's Peter Feith, has quickly and professionally resolved the few violent incidents between GAM and the TNI.

Wheels of Justice, vol. 1:  Balkan war crime progress on multiple fronts.  Not only was number three most-wanted suspect (and Croatian general) Ante Gotovina caught last week and put on trial in the Hague this week (for atrocities committed against Croatia's Serb minority during the Balkans wars, but a court in Serbia convicted 14 former militiamen for their part in the infamous massacre of Croatian prisoners at Vukovar during that same conflict.  Seeing national trials produce conviction is key, many have argued, to national and regional coming-to-terms with what happened -- as much so, perhaps, as Hague trials of big shots like Gotovina.

South America's Switzerland.  Not much good news out of Latin America these days -- but check out Chile's presidential election, to be followed by a run-off between a woman ex-defense minister and Pinochet era torture victim, Michele Bachelet, and rightist millionaire businessman  Sebastian Pinera.  So routine it's gotten hardly any media coverage here -- as good as could have been hoped when Pinochet stepped down in 1990. 

Wheels of Justice, vol. 2:  Pinochet himself is facing new attempts to bring him to court, this time for tax evasion.)

Feel better now?

Diplomacy's Back Posted by Derek Chollet

We spend a lot of space here at DA beating up the current Administration on this or that – because, well, they deserve it, and because that’s what being in the loyal opposition is all about.

But I think what distinguishes constructive criticism from mere carping is giving the Bush team credit when they do something right (especially when it’s along the lines of what we recommended!)

For example, Secretary of State Rice’s trip to Europe last week was rightfully consumed by the controversy over CIA “black sites” and questions about what to do next in Iraq.

But these bitter debates obscure a surprising -- and for some, hard to swallow -- fact: the U.S. approach toward many of the world’s toughest challenges has undergone a dramatic, if quiet, transformation.  After five years in office, the Bush team has belatedly discovered what it once derided -- the art of diplomacy (a version of what follows appeared in yesterday’s Baltimore Sun).

Hi, I'm the Progressive Movement and I'm an Addict. Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Hi, I'm the progressive movement and I'm an addict.  Rather, I'm lots of addicts co-dependent on the other addicts whose ideas I say I want to defeat in the name of a better progressive movement.

Yes, that means you, Code Pink, who can't think of anyone more to blame for the mess in Iraq than Hillary Clinton.

But it also means you, Anonymous Sources, whose first reaction to hearing a fellow Dem voice an Iraq strategy you don't like is... rush to the media (anonymously) and make sure it gets even more attention!  You know who you are.

** update -- EJ Dionne wrote this same point very eloquently on the 13.  What he said.

Now, everybody, look up from your twelve-step handbooks and consider the conservative movement.  They, too, are split on Iraq.  John McCain wants to put in more troops; Congressman Walter Jones wants a faster timetable for a pullout.

Iraqi Elections: 10 Key Things to Look Out for During and After Posted by Suzanne Nossel

We all know this week's elections for a permanent Iraqi parliament are important, but what tea leaves are worth focusing on to determine whether this will be a watershed for democracy, another halting and ambivalent step in Iraq's tortured transition, or the beginning of the end of Iraq as a unitary state.    Here are 10 things to watch for after the election to see whether the balloting winds up being as transformative as the Bush Administration hopes.

1.  Performance and Cohesion of the United Iraqi Alliance - This coalition of 18 conservative religious Shiite parties nominated current Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari.  If it prevails in its strongholds of Iraq's 8 southern provinces and Baghdad, this means increasing Iranian influence in Iraq.   If the alliance falls short of the 45-50% of seats projected or fragments during post-vote horsetrading, that may bode well for the emergence of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi or another secular moderate, and for the US's continued strong sway.  See here for more.

2.  Performance of the Iraqi National List - This is Allawi's party, and represents the US's best bet for a friendly Iraqi leadership that will cooperate with our efforts to engineer a smooth exit and sustain our influence long-term.   Allawi got 14% of the vote in January running as a sitting Prime Minister.  If that number rises, it may suggest that secularism in Iraq has legs.

3.  Speed with Which a New Government is Formed Post-Vote - This took three months after the January elections for an interim Iraqi Parliament.  Petty infighting ruled the day, and momentum toward political reform and integration stalled.   Now, the incoming Parliament faces a four-month deadline to fill in the most contentious blanks in the constitution adopted in October.  The more time they lose, the remoter the chances that a grand and sustainable bargain on issues like federalism and apportionment of oil proceeds emerges.