Another COIN Myth Exposed - Protecting the Population Posted by Michael Cohen

One of the more pernicious myths of the modern COIN fad is the focus on protecting civilians as an end goal in itself for COIN operations. As the argument goes, by protecting civilians counter-insurgents are able to shift the balance of popular support toward the government and away from the insurgent forces. The more people feel protected, the better chance they will reject the insurgent force and ally themselves with the government. The population is the center of gravity we are told.

For example, last spring here is how General McChrystal defined the fight in Afghanistan: 

“Central to counterinsurgency is protecting the people,” he said. . . Effectiveness is measured in “the number of Afghans shielded from violence.” 

The New York Times endorsed this view, making the argument:

Protecting Afghan civilians, and expanding the secure space in which they can safely go about their lives and livelihoods must now become the central purpose of American military operations in Afghanistan.

According to a new UN report, more than a year later, things are not working out too well:

In its midyear report, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said the number of civilians wounded and killed had increased by nearly a third in the first six months of the year, as coalition forces raised the level of military action against insurgents. In that period, 1,271 civilians were killed and 1,997 wounded, the report said, with more than three-quarters attributable to what it called “antigovernment elements.”

So what we have here is compelling evidence that our COIN strategy has been an dramatic failure; the US has largely been unable to protect Afghan civilians. In fact, their lives are now at greater risk than before we began to carry out a policy specifically geared toward protecting them.

None of this should be a huge surprise. As I noted last year, "By making civilian body counts the top metric you are waging war on the enemy's terms - and you are allowing them to dictate how you judge the success of your operation. If anything, you are actually giving incentive to the Taliban to kill more civilians."

This isn't to say that the Taliban are purposely targeting civilians, but it does suggest that the Taliban can easily undermine US strategy by placing civilians at greater risk. Indeed, violence against civilians has a multiplier effect because it cedes fear and uncertainty among the civilian population and convinces them not to take sides in a conflict.

The simple truth is that we have a fairly good sense - from studying COIN history - how you protect civilians from insurgents: you forcibly separate them. A tactic used to great success in Malaya and Kenya and to a different degree in Iraq. The current US strategy in Afghanistan of using a carrot, rather than a stick is not the path to success. In fact, if anything it seems to be causing more harm than good. 

None of this, of course, is to suggest that protecting the population is a bad thing or should be discouraged. Instead the experience of waging so-called population centric COIN in Afghanistan provides compelling evidence that military escalation, in general, is a poor means of achieving that goal. 

One would hope that the consistent failure of COIN theory when it is put in practice would lead the military to shelve the pseudo-science and unsupported arguments underpinning modern COIN doctrine, as described in FM 3-24. But to be honest, I'm not holding my breath.

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Ivorians went using the polls in November to heal people wounds, but Mr. Gbagbo refused to actions lower shortly after dropping to his rival, Alassane Ouattara, prompting a lengthy standoff using the intercontinental local community and, now, a rebel advance to make an effort to expel Mr. Gbagbo by force. As element of that campaign, basic Michel’s entourage involved trendy youthful grownup men in sunglasses and civilian outfits alongside fighters in fatigues carrying Kalashnikovs. The basic himself wore a neatly pressed uniform, getting a brand tag on his breast, and insisted he was operating below the command of Mr. Ouattara. Liberian and United Nations officials mentioned the basic was right to suspect Liberian mercenaries of crossing into Ivory Coast to help Mr. Gbagbo stay in power. Harrison S. Karnwea Sr., Liberia’s internal minister, pointed using the recovery of the Liberian voter registration card from the combatant within Ivory Coast. “According to what we hear, equally sides are recruiting Liberian mercenaries,” he said. “When grownup men and ladies experienced been utilized to residing on violence, they have obtained no occupation to gain their residing on.” But officials contended the fact that most significant risk to regional destabilization was the exodus steering all through another direction. Liberia is profoundly fragile shortly after getting consumed by civil war for just about any great offer belonging using the 1990s, a conflict that developed warlords and drugged-up child soldiers. Today, eight many years shortly after the accomplish of hostilities, there are nonetheless 8,000 United Nations troops all through the country. in spite of the actuality that Liberia’s whole spending budget is $375 million, the peacekeeping mandate costs $500 million a year, the United Nations said. Ellen Margrethe Loej, the mind belonging using the United Nations mandate in Liberia, is most worried about arms from Ivory Coast crossing the border. “After the civil war, disarmament was pretty — if not really — prosperous in Liberia, but there are nonetheless lots of weapons near to in Côte d’Ivoire,” she said. “The border is really porous.” A era of youthful Liberians knew only war, and on the very minimum some found probability in getting element in it. thinking about that then, superb endeavours experienced been developed to stimulate a numerous method of life. “Liberia’s used the last 7 many years and some weeks to rein all through the guys who experienced been fighting,” mentioned Michael McGovern, a political anthropologist at Yale who scientific lab tests West Africa. Now, he said, there may nicely be considered a risk of grownup men and ladies getting “torn out belonging using the interpersonal material they experienced been woven back again into.” The refugees have presently overwhelmed some villages. At outdated Pohan, a Liberian settlement following using the thickets that extend using the border, refugees significantly outnumbered the local community population, and additional experienced been arriving all the time. “We do not have resting places, as well as the refugees are additional than us; no food,” mentioned a villager, Victor Gaye. The refugees themselves, some placing on Laurent Gbagbo campaign T-shirts that recommended they experienced been opposed using the advancing rebels, spoke of the desperate trek south shortly after an assault inside the Ivorian village of Bloléquin. “We experienced been all through the bush for one week,” mentioned Zoué Bah Suzanne, 52. “Since I arrived, I want foodstuff to eat, I want a resting place to lie down.” With tens of a massive amount of refugees presently in Liberia, United Nations officials mentioned they experienced been struggling to muster an intercontinental response, at a time when numerous other crises experienced been demanding the world’s attention. “If you see the information in any intercontinental television set funnel these times you see Libya, Libya, Libya,” mentioned António Guterres, the United Nations considerable commissioner for refugees, all through a tour of impacted places in Liberia. searching for to proceed the Ivorians besides border settlements, the United Nations has opened a camp about 25 miles within Liberia. Lines of tents develop out in freshly cleared jungle, alone dust-blanched on the accomplish belonging using the dried out season. But only many thousand refugees have come, thinking about that people on the border do not desire to go farther, some presently getting settled for weeks. Refugees are also commencing to cross in considerable quantities into eastern Ghana, which could be much additional stable than Liberia. But Abidjan, which rebel forces reached on Thursday, lies near using the border, potentially sending a surge of refugees into Ghana. Ivory Coast has millions of international laborers, which consists of numerous from Burkina Faso. If they are forced to flee, their home country, which could be desperately poor, may nicely struggle to accommodate them. “If there may nicely be considered a complete collapse belonging using the economy, there will probably be considered a even morecheap louboutin shoes interpersonal result on their nations of origin,” Mr. Guterres said. Konate Sidiki, a past Ivorian minister of tourism, now the secretary of institution using the rebels, argued that in spite of the humanitarian consequences, “there is no other solution” but force in the direction of Mr. Gbagbo. “For three weeks we make an effort to discuss, we make an effort to negotiate,” he said.

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