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August 09, 2010

Diplomatic Solution for Iran -- Whoa Nellie
Posted by David Shorr

As you probably heard, last week President Obama briefed journalists on the new economic sanctions against the Iranian regime. Here's the short version. The White House wants everyone to know that there's more to the sanctions' impact than meets the eye. And while this could help pave the way to a diplomatic resolution, there's less than meets the eye in terms of an immediate pay-off. In other words, the administration is playing a diplomatic long-game, and the latest breathless anticipation about diplomacy misunderstands the strategy.

Two Washington Post columnists took part in the briefing, and offerred contrasting views of the link between progress on sanctions and on diplomacy. Robert Kagan drew a careful distinction between the two, whereas David Ignatius went an extra step or two in anticipating the diplomatic possibilities. Personally, I found Bob's account much more plausible.

Reaching a happy diplomatic ending with Iran is contingent on three things: the regime's willingness to verifiably keep their nuclear program strictly civilian, a substantive deal to that effect, and deft diplomacy to reach a deal satisfactory to both sides. Much of the debate over policy toward Iran stresses the first, Iranian leaders' bottom-line decision about acquiring nuclear weapons or capability. No, the real problem is that Tehran's ultimate calculation is unknowable until put to the test, and the entire enterprise is basically a process of peeling the onion of their intentions. In this sense, I agree with the critique Peter Feaver of Shadow Government makes against the "it's useless to negotiate with these people" school of Iran policy. Feaver argues that whether you end up bombing Iran or learning to live with their bomb, either way you have to exhaust your diplomatic options.

What we have to overcome in the meantime is Iranian foot-dragging. Iran's default diplomatic approach will always be to try to run out the clock. This doesn't mean they've decided to build the bomb, it only means that only under duress will they submit to constraints. That's why the international community has to insist on meaningful commitments and actions rather than vague declarations -- and why the solid international front behind the sanctions is crucial in ensuring Tehran has no interlocutors to give them cover and help deflect pressure. [Even with all the attention paid to the role of Russia, I don't think the main point comes through; President Obama didn't merely secure Russia's vote in the Security Council, he drove a big wedge between them and Iran and a instilled a genuine sense of ownership by Moscow.]

Perhaps paradoxically, this diplomatic dynamic ensures the process will be a steeplechase rather than a sprint. I think Cliff Kupchan gets ahead of himself when he argues that the window is open for a final deal on Iran's nuclear progam. It's not that we have the luxury of time for diplomacy to work; the clock of Iranian technological progress is indeed ticking -- the only question is how fast. We'll need interim measures and deals to allow enough time to reach the final deal.

Which brings us to sad tale of the agreement reached last October in Geneva by which Iran would have shipped its enriched uranium out of the country to be turned into fuel rods for civilian nuclear energy. The essential point of the agreement was to alleviate internaional concerns about how close Iran was coming to having a nuclear weapon capability -- to add to the clock by putting their nuclear material in international custody and constraining their enrichment activities.

I'm guessing a similar deal will be the key to any further progress, rather than a dramatic sprint toward a final resolution. Having renegged on that earlier bargain, the ball is in Tehran's court. While the US and others must be genuine in their desire for a peaceful outcome, to ardently pursue Iran is to play their game. I think Blake Hounshell makes an excellent point in highlighting how new the sanctions are. This is probably the main underlying message from the Administration, including Secretary Clinton's interview with David Sanger.

The Geneva agreement and the sanctions have everything to do with one another -- i.e. the administration would not have been able to get the sanctions without Iran having been put to the test. And here is where I disagree with Peter Feaver's analysis. Feaver laments the lapse of time before the international pressure on the Iranian leadership was ratcheted up and attributes it to Obama's belated recognition that carrots won't work. His administration can perhaps be faulted for not being clearer in declaring the Geneva terms null and void, but I see no epihany on their part. In a sense, they were following a similar logic to Feaver's own argument about the necessity of trying diplomacy first. In order to get to sanctions -- and the international supported needed to enact them -- they had to test Iran's sincerity first.

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Ellen Margrethe Loej, the mind belonging using the United Nations mandate in Liberia, is most worried about arms from Ivory Coast crossing the border. “After the civil war, disarmament was pretty — if not really — prosperous in Liberia, but there are nonetheless lots of weapons near to in Côte d’Ivoire,” she said. “The border is really porous.” A era of youthful Liberians knew only war, and on the very minimum some found probability in getting element in it. thinking about that then, superb endeavours experienced been developed to stimulate a numerous method of life. “Liberia’s used the last 7 many years and some weeks to rein all through the guys who experienced been fighting,” mentioned Michael McGovern, a political anthropologist at Yale who scientific lab tests West Africa. Now, he said, there may nicely be considered a risk of grownup men and ladies getting “torn out belonging using the interpersonal material they experienced been woven back again into.” The refugees have presently overwhelmed some villages. At outdated Pohan, a Liberian settlement following using the thickets that extend using the border, refugees significantly outnumbered the local community population, and additional experienced been arriving all the time. “We do not have resting places, as well as the refugees are additional than us; no food,” mentioned a villager, Victor Gaye. The refugees themselves, some placing on Laurent Gbagbo campaign T-shirts that recommended they experienced been opposed using the advancing rebels, spoke of the desperate trek south shortly after an assault inside the Ivorian village of Bloléquin. “We experienced been all through the bush for one week,” mentioned Zoué Bah Suzanne, 52. “Since I arrived, I want foodstuff to eat, I want a resting place to lie down.” With tens of a massive amount of refugees presently in Liberia, United Nations officials mentioned they experienced been struggling to muster an intercontinental response, at a time when numerous other crises experienced been demanding the world’s attention. “If you see the information in any intercontinental television set funnel these times you see Libya, Libya, Libya,” mentioned António Guterres, the United Nations considerable commissioner for refugees, all through a tour of impacted places in Liberia. searching for to proceed the Ivorians besides border settlements, the United Nations has opened a camp about 25 miles within Liberia. Lines of tents develop out in freshly cleared jungle, alone dust-blanched on the accomplish belonging using the dried out season. But only many thousand refugees have come, thinking about that people on the border do not desire to go farther, some presently getting settled for weeks. Refugees are also commencing to cross in considerable quantities into eastern Ghana, which could be much additional stable than Liberia. But Abidjan, which rebel forces reached on Thursday, lies near using the border, potentially sending a surge of refugees into Ghana. Ivory Coast has millions of international laborers, which consists of numerous from Burkina Faso. If they are forced to flee, their home country, which could be desperately poor, may nicely struggle to accommodate them. “If there may nicely be considered a complete collapse belonging using the economy, there will probably be considered a even more interpersonal result on their nations of origin,” Mr. Guterres said. Konate Sidiki, a past Ivorian minister of tourism, now the secretary of institution using the rebels, argued that in spite of the humanitarian consequences, “there is no other solution” but force in the direction of Mr. Gbagbo. “For three weeks we make an effort to discuss, we make an effort to negotiate,” he said.

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Stoltenberg would not comment on the investigation or the possibility of another attack, though he noted that there would come a time to look into how police responded to the violence.

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