Another COIN Myth - "We Get COIN" Posted by Michael Cohen

So a few weeks ago I wrote a post titled the Afghanistan Exist Strategy Watch about how I was beginning to believe that the US was turning the corner in Afghanistan - away from trying to win there to preparing to get out. 

Um . . . never mind:

American military officials are building a case to minimize the planned withdrawal of some troops from Afghanistan starting next summer, in an effort to counter growing pressure on President Obama from inside his own party to begin winding the war down quickly.

With the administration unable yet to point to much tangible evidence of progress, Gen. David H. Petraeus, who assumed command in Afghanistan last month from Gen.Stanley A. McChrystal, is taking several steps to emphasize hopeful signs on the ground that, he will argue, would make a rapid withdrawal unwise. Meanwhile, a rising generation of young officers, who have become experts over the past nine years in the art of counterinsurgency, have begun quietly telling administration officials that they need time to get their work done.

“Their argument,” said one senior administration official, who would not speak for attribution about the internal policy discussions, “is that while we’ve been in Afghanistan for nine years, only in the past 12 months or so have we started doing this right, and we need to give it some time and think about what our long-term presence in Afghanistan should look like.”

"Only in the past 12 months or so have we started doing this right" is such a laughable quote that the senior Administration official who recounted should have started guffawing afterward.  

It's one of the essential COIN myths that the military didn't "get" counter-insurgency in Afghanistan until 12 months ago; just as it's an essential COIN myth that we weren't doing counter-insurgency in Iraq before the surge and that once we did, everything turned around there. As a friend said to me last night. "It's the Better War Part 2: Even Betterer!"

But in reality we've been doing some variation of these policies since 2003 and actually after 2007 what we were doing in Iraq looked very little like what is popularly described as COIN today. The turnaround in Iraq had far less to do with the surge and a change in US tactics than it did specific events on the ground (in particular Sunni militias turning on AQI and a general decline in the ethnic slaughter that had defined the country in 2005 and 2006).

The conceptual problem with the "we get COIN" argument is that it presupposes what the American military does from a tactical perspective actually matters - and that the enemy and our allies has little actual agency. For example, let's say that in Iraq every military officer memorized FM 3-24 in 2003 (an impossibility I know but work with me). It wouldn't have made things any easier as far as stabilizing the country then - because the challenge in stabilizing Iraq went far beyond what the US military was possibly able to accomplish on a tactical level. In other words, a COIN-led surge in 2004 would not have succeeded. 

Same goes for Afghanistan today. It doesn't matter if we've started doing COIN right in the last 12 months or the last 12 years. What influences the long-term effectiveness of the mission there has to do with a set of factors completely out of the control of the American military: things like the performance of the Afghan military and police, the inclination of the Afghan government to crack down on corruption, the continued presence of Afghan Taliban safe havens in Pakistan, the level of political and popular support in the United States and yes, even the ability of the Taliban to adapt to US and NATO's tactical changes.

Whether the US gets COIN or doesn't get COIN is not relevant to the much larger question of whether the US mission - as currently formulated - can hope to succeed. And if the last year has taught us anything it is that it cannot. That's the question that the White House needs to be addressing; not the silly proclamations of military officers that they suddenly get counter-insurgency.

Of course, it would help if the President would actually address these issues and make clear to his national security team what he believes the the US commitment to Afghanistan should be and what is his timetable for achieving US goals.

It's something that he continues to fail to do. With such questions seemingly remaining open-ended it's small wonder that military officials are doing what they always try to do - ask for more troops and more time. It's up to the Commander-in-Chief to set limits; so how about it Mr. President?

Comments

[Jeff M.]

Fantastic analysis!

[Herve LegerHerve Leger]

Dunno why I had to make a second wordpress account herve leger to leave a comment to your blog but Herve Leger Skirts anyways xD

Thx for the responses. herve leger bandage dress The “vuvuzela-powered lazer beam” thing herve leger clothing and your last answer made me laugh out loud

I wanted to ask you this for quite some time now. herve leger sale I would herve leger dresses appreciate it if you replied. What’s actually harder, herve leger dress making a record or trying to Herve Leger Strapless name it?

[küçük sırlar son bölüm izle]

Merhaba arkadaşlar size bir takım sitelerdne bahsetmek istiyorum bu siteler şöyle sıralanıyor.Metro Turizm Bilet Fiyatları ve yada daha Avcılar Devlet Hastanesi Randevu Alma ve yada daha  Bodrum Otelleri ve yada daha 9.sınıf dil ve anlatım kitabı cevapları ve yada daha 9.sınıf coğrafya kitabı cevapları ve yada daha 9.sınıf edebiyat kitabı cevapları ve yada daha 10.sınıf edebiyat kitabı cevapları ve yada daha 10.sınıf dil ve anlatım kitabının cevapları işte bitti

[iPhone Cases]

In 2008 iPhone 3G mobile released, and iPhone OS 2.0 App Store came into being. IPhone OS 2.0 improved to support iWork, Office.doc, and the previous undesirable situation that it could not receive picture in E-mail also gets improved, besides, it also appends the the iPhone Cases
function to save mail picture and to search the contacts. Of course, the participation of App Store is the most important improvement, which not only prolongs the life cycle of iPhone, but also changes the playing rules of the mobile industry to some extent. Apple iPhone 2.0.1 were mainly repaired some questions which has appeared before 2.0 editions, including the easy to make a mistake program run, keyboard entry detention and so on. In addition, to combat parallel import, Apple also updated iPhone 3G's baseband in iPhone 2.0.1 edition's firmware for previously users of cracking iPhone 3G would be locked once they updated.Blackberry Accessories Dominate in Autumn

In 2009, iPhone 3GS released, and iPhone OS 3.0 began to support copy and paste. In contrast to 2.0, iPhone OS 3.0 changes a lot: only the newly added functions have reached over 100 items, among which copy, paste, overall search and so on are most expected by all users. The new software development kit (SDK), which includes more than 1000 kinds of new application programming interfaces (APIs) has also provided convenience for program developers, creating sufficient conditions for developers to create more outstanding applications.Primitive Tricks to Shop ipad plastic case

[Enamelware]

First of all,Thanks for nice article. Its very important to use your targeted keyword frequently in Article. Lets say above 3% keyword density is very good. Use some anchor text links for your keyword as well to make it more effective.
Aluminum Casting

Metal Halide Lamp

Coach Bags

[Juicy Gogo]

ere I recommend the best JC for you! Hope you like it. If you really love it, please contact with me!
Juicy Couture

[FFXIV GIL]

Are you fighting in Final Fantasy XIV for FFXIV Gil or Final Fantasy XIV Gil?
Can you suffer yourself being called newbie in FFXIV Gil game?
Are you seeking unofficial Buy FFXIV Gil cheats or Final Fantasy XIV guides in order to make Final Fantasy XIV Gil faster?
Can you get millions of Cheap FFXIV Gil in one day?
Even if you know how to farm Buy Final Fantasy XIV Gil you have to prepare enough Final Fantasy XIV Power Leveling first to buy height class Final Fantasy XIV Items, to upgrade your Final Fantasy XIV characters.
Buy aika gold
Then why not Buy FFXIV Gil from us?
In Final Fantasy XIV it's the fastest way FF14 Gil,for you to get rich. We are online 24 hours a day ready and 7 days one week to power up your FFXIV Gil accounts with FFXIV Gil. Here is the best place for the Final Fantasy XIV Online players to buy your Final Fantasy XIV Gil.
We are the professional website in FFXIV GIL sale.FFXIV GIL here,We are professional FFXIV Power Leveling online. We update price every single day to make sure we are the lowest in the market.(we don't compare price with scam sites which uses unbelievable low price to deceive.)
Our slogan:Cheapest price, Fastest delivery, Best service!

Cheap aika gold
In the 2 years we are in this field , AIKA Goldbuilt many business with tens of thousands of customers. They are very satisfied with our service.So if you want to get a log of Cheap FFXIV Gil ,no doubt ,come to our website to buy. Our customer service is ready for you on line now!(GM MMO)

[christian louboutin]

Christian Louboutin children of their parents' friends, next-door neighbors. Any playmate is better than no playmate Christian Louboutin Boots That's what Homewood, AL, mom Wendy Price Murch learned when her Christian Louboutin Pumps but you've always loved going to the play place Christian Louboutin Sandals Simple Strategies to Help Your Child Make FriendsChristian Louboutin Shoes Sale

[jilingyu]

Inch by inch had laboured along, not alone and lonely, links of london let your life there is a goal and direction, links of london and we expect, we have good prospects. loneliness and solitude, that we have often derived from the world, and the human and despair and hopelessness. many words, links of london jewellery words, evil, from bad to the great evil, the reality of human nature, too much, who is not said, Who after all is said. links of london charms sale let your life each day was fresh, everyone, links london have some shortcomings and inadequacies nature,

[replicas-relojes]

Well.I like it, Its a really nice article I've saw :) , now, please allow me introduce a site made by my friend. you can click the link to view his site and find yours favourite

www.replicas-relojes.net

REPLICAS RELOJES

REPLICAS DE RELOJES ROLEX

IMITACIONES DE RELOJES SUIZOS LUJO

[ED Hardy]

nice article. girl gamers are just as fun as male gamers, if not MORE:)

[uggsofaufanfan]

welcome to china

[denny]

Pharrell and moncler The luxury brand Moncler has joined forces with the Grammy Award-winning musician, fashion designer and all-round king of cool Pharrell Williams to create a collection of Moncler Branson Navy Jacket Black_for Men . Each one is made using futuristic fabrics by Bionic Yarn, an American company owned by Williams that makes all its materials out of recycled plastic bottles, and linings featuring 'dark forest’ photographs by the Japanese artist Keita Sugiura. Puff jacket by Pharrell Williams for moncler, ￡995 (020-7235 0857).

[ugg classic tall]

why the teas in my eyes,becuse i love it so deeply.

[Louis Vuitton Handbags]

Thank you for your post, I look for such article along time,today i find it finally.this postgive me lots of advise it is very useful for me .i will pay more attention to you ,i hope you can go on posting more such post, i will support you all the time.

[new jordan]

i agree with your view
nice post
thanks for sharing
look forward new posts

[Best Replica Watches]

Good blog, where it taught me a lot! Thank you! The hope of improving the content!

[rolex submariner]

thanks for you share ,i like so much,It is so lucky to read your blog,it is full of useful message

[charlene]

We produce Replica Jerseys for many years.

[watchstore]

I'm sorry, but it's not good enough to say "do over." The pundits' second thoughts should carry the cargo of their previous assumptions, heady projections and salient selling points.I'm a businessman, but also about this thing.nike air max .

[Led Display]

We are a professional manufacturer that produce the led display, led panel light ,led tube and other led components.

[Replica Rolex]

Very good blog, I got a lot of things! If you need to watch, please click on my name, visit our website, where you need to be able to find watch and look forward to your visit! Thank you!

[moncler]

I provide information that is truly unique and the service they offer too have lived, I love this service so I request please visit the others.

[louis vuiton belts]

support copy and paste. In contrast to 2.0, iPhone OS 3.0 changes a lot: only the newly added functions have reached over 100 items

[syq123]

Money is indeed
Tiffany Bangles important, but Tiffany tassel comb money cannot buy everything. A miser may Tiffany Collection Money Clip think that “money talks,” but if you only give your attention to making money, you may lose many things, such Tiffany Pendants as health, friendship and love. I don't think we should regard money as everything. Money Tiffany Key Rings is just a tool that can help us solve problems or enable us to live a comfortable life. What Tiffany Cuff Link we should do is to use it appropriately and not become misers. This way, all of us can lead a happier lives.

[tiffany and co]

Measure out a good length of wire line or Links of London Letters, if the balls are larger, leather or cotton cord. Should be enough to wrap around your neck than 5 inches. If you are using wire, slide a bead embedded in one end and a part of clasp. Pass the cable through the securing of accounts, adjust, and then flatten the Links of London Sale with crimping pliers. Trim the tail of wire. String accounts. If you want a symmetrical pattern, start with the Links of London Pendants and add segments on each side. Add the second part of the hook or, if you are using a snap hook Should silver jewelry be plated? Silver coating can be done with rhodium, white gold, yellow gold and platinum, even. Another thing you should know when to buy silver Links of London online may no longer be done by hand or machine. Of course, pieces of handmade silver are priced much higher than machine-made counterparts because more value is placed on the works of human hands.

[thy bilet fiyatları]

merhaba arkadaşlar çok güzel bir site yapmışsınız gerçektende şu bizim nacizane linkimizide kabul ederseniz çok müteşekkir olurum.Görüşmek dileğiyle umarım thy bilet fiyatları konusunda istediğimiz başarıya ulaşırız.

[Christian Shoe]

2010/11 qiu dong outfit ladies fashion trend colour: a group of embroidered with oil and amber color tone, establish in blue ink color saturation. If the color Hervelegerbandage will aging, this is the aging process. Inspired by the rust of metals and oil leakage, the destruction of beauty only as time goes by nature. The neutral Herve Leger Skirts gray attune with embroider, copper and gold and purple jade color of warm color contrast. Dark olive green and brown adds the feeling.

[one dollar scarves]

copper and gold and purple jade color of warm color contrast. Dark olive green and brown adds the feeling.

[new laptop battery]

Moncler outlet Body

I'm terribly sorry laptop batteries The best way to make sure that we will feel and look fine is to develop healthy eating habits. Body Dont forget to buy me some ketchup on your way back. Whenever I have free time, I go to the laptop battery store I'm tired of working all day Okey. Thank you. Would you like anything else I always have a big wash to do on Saturdays. Moncler jackets Its near here. Is that so John is tied up at the present time.John Do you have any suggestions Jerseys I just couldn't help it. Wisdom appears in contradiction to itself, which is a trick life plays on philosophy of life. How about yourself However,most of the time people from the two countries do not have any difficulty in understanding each other. laptop batteries really heavy. I'd like a refund on this ticket. A good book is a good friend.

[ugg boot]

A nice green gel sole completes the package. These also came with the silver Air Max premium keychain. Best shoes i've brought for UGG Boots Sale, the grip is unbeleivable can stop and turn on a dime, they fit perfectly and my feet are never sore after playing Nike Air Max in them.I have read some of the bad reviews and I will write again in a few weeks or after my track season to see how they wear.. These premium Air Max Shoes were only available on UGGS in 2006 and were not available in stores. Retail on them was UGG Boots and a matching shirt was released alongside them as well. They feature a nice all patent leather upper with no Cheap UGG Boots on the toe but some stars are pictured in their place.

[dada]

ere I recommend the best JC for you! Hope you like it. If you really love it, please contact with me!

[designer handbags on sale]

With the administration unable yet to point to much tangible evidence of progress, Gen. David H. Petraeus, who assumed command in Afghanistan last month from Gen.Stanley A. McChrystal, is taking several steps to emphasize hopeful signs on the ground that, he will argue, would make a rapid withdrawal unwise. Meanwhile, a rising generation of young officers, who have become experts over the past nine years in the art of counterinsurgency, have begun quietly telling administration officials that they need time to get their work done.

[dada]

ere I recommend the best JC for you! Hope you like it. If you really love it, please contact with me!

[Sale on Ugg Boots]

Nice post.It's all in the eyes and where they are looking~

[pandorabracelets]

It is no use doing what you like; you have got to like what you do.

[silk scarf]

why often the tears in my eyes,i love the things so deeply!

[ugg boots clearance]

Our ugg boots clearance nails aren’t just a convenient place to put colored polish. Nails, on both the fingers and the toes, are made of keratin, the same stuff our hair contains, only denser and harder. Nails are the primate equivalent of hooves and claws on other animals. Animals use their claws or talons to catch prey, climb trees, and defend themselves. Humans have evolved to the point where fingernails are not vital for survival, but there’s no doubt that they’re useful ugg boots clearance. They help when we’re performing fine motor skills, like untying knots and preparing food. They’re also important for scratching (a pleasurable experience most mammals enjoy) and grooming ugg boots clearance.

Toenails are less important than fingernails ugg boots clearance. At this stage of our evolution, they’re little more than remnants. Watching apes and monkeys use their feet to grasp objects reminds us that at one point it was useful to have nails on our toes, but they’re simply not as necessary now. Apes and monkeys also have opposable thumbs on their feet that help their dexterity. Since humans don’t have these, our feet are useful mainly for ambulation ugg boots clearance.

One thing that nails are not for is protection of the nail bed. Contrary to popular belief, they serve no protective purpose ugg boots clearance, and without fingernails or toenails, our digits would not be uncomfortably sensitive; the nail bed would simply become harder and tougher to accommodate the new level of exposure ugg boots outlet.

[ugg boots clearance]

There were rockets like a flight of scintillating birds singing with sweet voices. There were green trees with trunks of dark smoke: their leaves opened like a whole spring unfolding in a moment,and their shining branches dropped glowing flowers down upon the astonished hobbits, disappearing with a sweet scent ugg boots clearance just before they touched their upturned faces.There were fountains of butterflies that flew glittering into the trees;there were pillars of coloured fires that rose and turned into eagles,or sailing ships, or a phalanx of flying swans; there was a red thunderstorm and a shower of yellow rain; there was a forest of silver spears that sprang suddenly into the air with a yell like an embattled army,and came down again into the Water with a hiss like a hundred hot ugg boots clearancesnakes.And there was also one last surprise, in honour of Bilbo, and it startled the hobbits exceedingly, as Gandalf intended. The lights went out.A great smoke went up.It shaped itself like a mountain seen in the distance,and began to glow at the summit. It spouted green and scarlet flames.Out flew a red-golden dragon?not life-size,but terribly life-like:fire came from his louis vuitton outlet, his eyes glared down; there was a roar,and he whizzed three times over the heads of the crowd.They all ducked,and many fell flat on their faces.The dragon passed like an express train,turned a somersault,and burst over Bywater with a deafening explosion.

[sesli sohbet]

The conceptual problem with the "we get COIN" argument is that it presupposes what the American military does from a tactical perspective actually matters - and that the enemy and our allies has little actual agency. For example, let's say that in Iraq every military officer memorized FM 3-24 in 2003 (an impossibility I know but work with me). It wouldn't have made things any easier as far as stabilizing the country then - because the challenge in stabilizing Iraq went far beyond what the US military was possibly able to accomplish on a tactical level. In other words, a COIN-led surge in 2004 would not have succeeded.

Same goes for Afghanistan today. It doesn't matter if we've started doing COIN right in the last 12 months or the last 12 years. What influences the long-term effectiveness of the mission there has to do with a set of factors completely out of the control of the American military: things like the performance of the Afghan military and police, the inclination of the Afghan government to crack down on corruption, the continued presence of Afghan Taliban safe havens in Pakistan, the level of political and popular support in the United States and yes, even the ability of the Taliban to adapt to US and NATO's tactical changes
sohbet chat seslisohbet seslichat seslisohbet siteleri seslichat siteleri xat

[led display]

thanks for share~

[white iphone 4]

With the administration unable yet to point to much tangible evidence of progress, Gen. David H. Petraeus, who assumed command in Afghanistan last month from Gen.Stanley A. McChrystal, is taking several steps to emphasize hopeful signs on the ground that, he will argue,

[white iphone 4]

Salut, où avez-vous obtenu cette information peut vous s'il vous pla?t appuyer ce avec une certaine preuve ou vous pouvez dire quelques bonnes références que moi et d'autres apprécieront vraiment. Cette information est vraiment bon et je vais dire sera toujours utile si nous essayer sans risques. Donc, si vous pouvez le sauvegarder. Cela nous aidera vraiment à tous. Et cela pourrait apporter un peu de bonne réputation pour vous.

[wholesale knockoff handbags]

how can I post a comment?

[goumai]

Needle Valve is a soft light that is effective and popular in all of the world .It can use in not only many different place ,such as room , shops , offices ,schools ,super markets ,cinemas but also can be used in LED Lighting the Light box , metro station , subway , night markets etc . Anyway it will be used in anywhere where needed .
It is not so ideal of the traditional fluorecsent’LED Tube power utilization:The power of extra ballast is too high , need high voltage when start , the mercury that built in the fluorescent lamp can’t deal when it stop working and becomes to hazards of environmental pollution . Phosphor fluorescent tube fluorescent tube in the filling into the process, contain higher amounts of mercury LED Display (mercury), so the breakdown of fluorescent tubes, mercury vapor came out great harm to human body. Authoritative sources: mercury vapor up from 0.04 to 3 mg when will people in LED Tube 2 to 3 months of chronic poisoning, up from 1.2 to 8.5 mg will induce acute mercury poisoning, should the the amount of 20 mg, will directly lead to LED Display animal death.

[iphone covers]

Il ya certainement beaucoup de détails comme celui de prendre en considération.

[coach outlet]

Cela nous aidera vraiment à tous. Et cela pourrait apporter un peu de bonne réputation pour vous.

[visvim]

The health department of a high school is equipped most emergencies.They are not designed to actually completely treat medically related emergencies, but rather to support the hospital by doing their best to stabilize the student before they arrive to the hospital. In order to achieve this, they must be equipped with the most up-to-date medical devices available.
Visvim

[nfl premier jerseys]

But in reality we've been doing some variation of these policies since 2003 and actually Washington Redskins premier jerseys after 2007 what we were doing in Iraq looked very little like what is popularly described as COIN today. The turnaround in Iraq had far less to do withTennessee Titans premier jerseys the surge and a change in US tactics than it did specific events on the ground (in particular Sunni militias turning on AQI and a general decline in the ethnic slaughter that had defined the country in 2005 and 2006).

The conceptual problem with the "we get COIN" argument is that it presupposes what the American military does from a tactical perspective actually matters - and that the enemy and our allies has little actual agency.Tampa Bay Buccaneers premier jerseys For example, let's say that in Iraq every military officer memorized FM 3-24 in 2003 (an impossibility I know but work with me). It wouldn't have made things any easier as far as stabilizing the country St.Louis Rams premier jerseys then - because the challenge in stabilizing Iraq went far beyond what the US military was possibly able Seattle Seahawks premier jerseys to accomplish on a tactical level. In other words, a COIN-led surge in 2004 would not have succeeded.

[Nike pas cher]

q every military officer memorized FM 3-24 in 2003 (an impossibility I know but work with me). It wouldn't have made things any easier as far as stabilizing the country St.Louis Rams premier jerseys then - because the challenge in stabilizing Iraq went far beyond what the US military was possibly able Seattle Seahawks premier jerseys to accomplish on a tactical level. In other words, a COI

[Luxury Womens Shoes]

I’m having a small problem I cannot make my reader pick up your feed, I’m using google reader fyi.

[冷夜]

In 2008 iPhone 3G mobile released, and iPhone OS 2.0 App Store came into being. IPhone OS 2.

[Cosplay Wigs]

Very often I go to see this blog. It very much is pleasant to me. Thanks the author

[wholoesale replica handbags]

thanks for share

[pandora charm clips]

Thanks a lot for discussing this information, I do not know about anyone else, but I can totally use it.

[knockoff handbags]

that is right,,,i like your words.

[Nike Free Run Sale]

And so commenced a quest by 612 ABC Radio Brisbane's Mornings program to help Danny Underwood collect what he hoped would be 30, 000 Puma Ferrari Sneakers Sale

[Nike Griffey Shoes]

i agree with your views from here.

[Air Yeezy]

There is no good reason for umps to get paid if they cannot call balls and strikes as defined in the rule book. It is not hard to monitor their performance.

[Asics Tiger]

Thank you for the article, I saw after the enlightened, my idea like you, just not good at expression

[Replica handbags]

How many bags do you have ? now I have GM M40144, speedy 25 M41528, Diraitofuru PM M40352, Diraitofuru MM M40353, Neverful PM M40155, Neverful MM M40156, Neverful GM M40157, keepall 55 M41414, keepall 50 M41416 and my most lovely Artsy MM M40249.

[HIGHE HEELS]

YEAH,You are collaborating with some Huge name. This stuff is very impressive.

[cherry]

http://www.tapso.co.uk

[replica handbags]

What is wrong?

[replica handbags]

I like very you article, it is so right....haha

[mbt schuhe]

Sang ha detto che la paura mbt schuhe di una rottura avrebbe ritardato a lungo, così si può mettere le normative registrato respiro completo è una cosa molto mbt schuhe günstig difficile. Per le normative sulla contenuti, Sunland è diminuito, disse soltanto: "Oggi è di dare mbt schuhe outlet una dichiarazione, la prossima cosa sulla procuratore agli investigatori che avevano".
http://www.mbtschuhe-outlet.com

[Oakley Sunglasses]

Perhaps this is one of the most interesting blogs that I have ever seen. Interesting article, Funny comment. Keep it up!