Medvedev's Speech: A Warning or a Sign of Weakness? Posted by James Lamond

Did Russian President Medvedev throw down a gauntlet to President-elect Obama yesterday, while the rest of the world (including Medvedev’s fellow-citizens) was celebrating in the streets?  Did he really intend to be less gracious than Iranian President Ahmedinejad by neglecting to congratulate Obama?

Medvedev announced that Russia would place new ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad if the US deploys its planned missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.  Kaliningrad is Russian territory located on the Baltic between Poland and Lithuania, two NATO and European Union member states.  President Medvedev said that the Iskander missile system will be deployed “to neutralize -- if necessary -- the anti-missile system,” that president Bush controversially pushed for, despite the objections of many NATO allies.

Many reports are declaring this a “warning,” a “threat,” or even a “gauntlet being thrown.”  But Rose Gottemoeller, long-time non-proliferation specialist just back from three years running the Carnegie Endowment’s Moscow Center, says hold on: Medvedev's speech may actually be more telling of internal problems within Russia than a power move to test the new American leader.

Gottemoeller offered Democracy Arsenal several deep-breathing perspectives on Medvedev’s speech:

“Medvedev’s failure to congratulate Obama during the speech was a missed opportunity typical of the shambolic decision-making situation in Moscow at the moment.  There is no need to overreact to it.

“The anti-missile defense measures in Europe are a waste of scarce Russian resources (grown even scarcer thanks to the financial crisis and the fall in oil prices) and have the flavor of ‘preemptive concessions’:  They are measures the Russian Federation could bargain away to gain U.S. concessions on the missile defense deployments.

“This is a dangerous game to be playing, when the first order of Russian business should be to gain the goodwill of the incoming Administration.  However, it is symptomatic once again of the situation in Moscow, where the ‘tandem leaders’ Putin and Medvedev are trying to outdo each other on being tough toward the outside world. 

In sum:  there are enough real and potential gauntlets awaiting our new president – including ones emanating from Moscow -- that we don't have to pre-figure them.

Comments

[Peace]

There must be some consideration about scrapping the proposed anit-missile system in Poland by the Obama administration because we need Russia's help with nuclear proliferation and Iran. It seems to me an easy decision to make since missile defense is basically useless.

[s2]

Is it too perverse to suggest that waiting to make this announcement after the election was already decided can be seen as a kind of backhanded "congratulations"? (Assuming that a Russian threat really would have favored McCain.)

[Kim W.]

Peace,

Do you really think that Russia is really willing to help us? If you check Russia's track record for the past decade, Russia and the US have been in contrast on almost everything. Russia is beginning to show its face as a foe instead of a friend and ally.

[Zathras]

Commentary that takes seriously the idea of Vladimir Putin's hand-picked President trying to outdo his benefactor in anything must be viewed with great skepticism. More likely, Medvedev is reading from a script approved by Putin personally.

Having said that, I actually agree with those who believe it unwise to push toward a confrontation with Russia over missile defense, a technology that has already been enough of a money pit for the Pentagon. Its effectiveness against the threat it purports to deter is highly doubtful, the threat itself will not materialize for years if it ever does, and the quarrels with Russia pressing missile defense will encourage do not serve American interests at this time. I've been hearing that missile defense was just over the horizon since I was in college during the Carter administration. Maybe someday, which is fine, but we've already dumped enough money into this area. We ought to explore what we can get from Russia in exchange for liquidating another commitment we cannot afford.