Democracy Arsenal

« October 28, 2007 - November 3, 2007 | Main | November 11, 2007 - November 17, 2007 »

November 09, 2007

Live-Blogging a State Dinner: Color Me Jalouse
Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Via Steve Clemons, we learn that French President Sarkozy took a French live-blogger with him to the state dinner this week, clearly a first.  He didn't get to live-blog the dinner, though, so there's still hope for the rest of us.  ;-)  (I'd bet on Clemons to be the first, myself.)  Heck, if Clarence Thomas' book party was on C-SPAN, as someone told me this week, why not?

Checking more deeply, we learn that the blogger lives in San Francisco but appears to bestride the French blog world AND be a big Sarko guy, in a way we political-blogging pikers might only dream of.  Imagine if Steve Clemons and Markos Moulitsas were the same person and advised a top-rank presidential candidate.  Or maybe it's just hype.

Lecturing the Choir
Posted by Moira Whelan

A Message to everyone: quit luring Democrats into the weeds and start beating the crap out of Republicans who aren’t giving us answers we very much deserve.

In the space of a week, I’ve read emails, blog posts, and news articles comparing Clinton/Edwards/Obama etc on everything from what their feelings on what Peruvian imports of coffee beans and guinea pigs says about their commitment to America, to their detailed plans on training for some Iraqis but not for others, to how much cloud cover would have to be present in order for one of them not to bomb Iran.

I’m seriously sick of it. I do not dispute that it is important to get candidates on the record as much as you can about as much as you can, but this actually goes for ALL candidates, not just half of them.

Take a tour of the websites. Democrats have so much policy on their sites that forests would actually be destroyed if one attempted to print it all. Republicans on the other hand, articulate sound “policies” on how they don’t like terrorists. Democrats provide journalists with pages and pages of advisors who support the candidate. Republicans, on the other hand are considered “well staffed” with two or three crazies (and not a single responsible conservative elder statesman) advising them.

Our loyal choir shouts accusations of Doublespeak! and Flip Flop! at Democratic candidates. We parse and parse again what he or she meant to say about Pakistan or foreign leaders. We compare the HUGE differences among every plan to accomplish the same goal.

In the meantime, the future standard bearers of the Bushies go entire interviews on Sunday shows never once being asked to talk about anything other than their personal lives…let alone our country…let alone anyone else’s.

After all of this, our choir then accuses Democrats of being in the weeds and mealy-mouthed. (My favorite part is when Very Serious People insist that The Candidate needs a policy on the obscure subject they happen to work on, and then weeks later, complains that The Candidate is getting too detailed and the message is muddled. Campaign staff should feel free to kick these people in the head for this act, as well as for thinking they know anything about message.)

Regardless of how you perceive your role in this big bad universe, all of the candidates are not being forced to answer all of the questions. When something doesn’t get done, it’s everyone’s fault. To those who forced the Democrats to go on the record and into the weeds by dogging, watch-dogging, helping or advising, my thanks to you. I now have a clear idea of where every Democrat stands as well as what kind of shoes they’re wearing and the color of their socks.

Please now consider using your talents to make Republicans feel the same heat. 

Freedom’s just another word for Bloody Civil War
Posted by Moira Whelan

I wish it weren't the case, but if I were in Iraq right now, I’d probably be saying “Incoming!” or hoping I wouldn’t get cholera and that my family would survive the night. Sadly I don’t think “Freedom” would be the first thing that springs to mind.

No traces in this video of Freedom and Hope “on the march, ” but the hollow hubris sure does resonate around the world.

Iraq and the Idea of Humanitarian Intervention
Posted by Shadi Hamid

This article on Iran policy by Ezra Klein is excellent. But there’s one graf – not really related to his major point – that got me thinking:

In some ways, the absence of weapons in Iraq have allowed the Democrats an easy out on the subject. Rather than being forced to face up to the consequences of our invasion and reevaluate whether America should really be overrunning tiny countries whose armories offend us, the various candidates have been able to pin their mistake on information, rather than ideology. As the argument goes, if they knew there had been no weapons, they would have never voted for war. Obama, it should be said, opposed war without regard to the weapons. Edwards, when I questioned him on this subject, refused to answer the hypothetical. And Hillary has been quite straightforward in saying that she regretted the flawed intelligence, but saw no reason to apologize -- and thus, signal retroactive disagreement with -- her vote, given the data she was working with.

Since I never thought the presence or absence of WMDs was particularly relevant in the first place, this wasn’t, and isn’t, the way I think about the Iraq war. Former war-supporters say they would have voted against the war if they knew then what they know now. But that’s the problem – you should have voted against the war even if you didn’t know then what you know now. The implicit suggestion here, that if Iraq had WMDs then war would have been justified, is disconcerting. There is a reason why the vast majority of Middle East specialists opposed the war regardless of the WMD question, a question that always struck me as somewhat tangential to the bigger issues being debated.

In my view, there’s only one way the Iraq war could have been justified, and that would have been on the basis of humanitarian intervention. Even though I ultimately disagreed with them, I have a deep respect for the people such as Tom Friedman and Paul Berman who supported the war on those grounds. Their position on Iraq was consistent with their approach to past conflicts like Kosovo and Bosnia, and it reflected what, to me, has always been a laudable strain on the left – a visceral hatred of authoritarianism, and a moral commitment to taking decisive action when millions of people are without hope and living under the most brutal kind of repression. It is easier to have this position when genocide is taking place; but much harder to take this position to its logical conclusion that gross human right abuses – even if not amounting to genocide – necessitate intervention as well. The lesson of Iraq, of course, is that “intervention” to fight autocracy and repression should nearly always be done through non-military means, except perhaps in very rare instances (not entirely decided on what those instances are).

Idealism aside, reality matters. Even if it seemed war was the only way to end Saddam’s brutality, those acquainted with the history of Western intervention in the Middle East should have been well aware of how such efforts – invariably couched in high-minded but ultimately empty rhetorical flourishes – have consistently failed. We don’t understand the Middle East, its culture, its people, its religious persuasions, its complex, pained history of humiliation. And, as long we have little of the necessary expertise required on the highest levels, then we should refrain from trying to transform the region.

But if, in a perfect world, the Iraq war could have been done correctly, competently, and with the right humanitarian justification – without any reference to weapons of any sort – and marshaling the cooperation and resources of the whole world united in a desire to help the Iraqi people in their longstanding wish to live free lives – then who knows? But such a thing was not possible. If it only it was. This is the tragedy of it. Something here was lost. A belief, an idealism, a hope that humanitarian action could have been used to right wrongs, to marshal together a new international ethic, where the world’s nations came together to support democracy not just in word but, finally, in deed. This was the ideal. But perhaps it simply wasn’t possible. And, perhaps, we were wrong to think it ever could be.   

A region still at risk
Posted by Max Bergmann

The Financial Times has a troubling piece today about rising nationalism in Bosnia. One official commented that, “This has been the most disappointing year post-Dayton" - referring to the 1995 peace agreement that created a decentralized and power sharing government between Serbs, Croats, and Bosnian Muslims. The peace agreement has to this point been widely viewed as a success. But a possible flash-point could occur if Kosovo declares its independence.

Among the greatest risks is that Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority will declare unilateral independence next month from Serbia, prompting Bosnian Serbs to hold a referendum on independence for their half of Bosnia, known as the Serb Republic.

Such a referendum would put the Dayton agreement, and Bosnia itself, at great risk. One side effect of Turkey's application to join the EU is that it has overshadowed the more urgent cases of Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia, and Albania. Now with Russia playing a more assertive and disruptive role internationally, there is a real danger that this region could start sliding backward.

November 08, 2007

Preemptive Pardons
Posted by Shadi Hamid

Preventative measures must be taken, friends, in case of an imminent threat of prosecution. The Democrats, like that crazy UFO-watcher Dennis, are conniving about impeaching Cheney, battle-hardened patriot and lover of freedom. What next? Those liberals are gonna try to impeach Bush for "war crimes." Crazy you say. But even if there's a 1% chance, we should be prepared. So we hereby suggest applying the doctrine of preemption to this matter. Yes, a preemptive pardon.

Smearing Obama
Posted by Shadi Hamid

Via Andrew Sullivan, I see that Obama has clarified that he is, in fact, Christian:

I just want to be very clear and this is obviously in no way an insult to the Muslim community who I respect deeply but I want people to know who I am. I am a Christian. I am a member of Trinity United Church of Christ.  I have been for 15 years. I have never practiced Islam and I think it’s important for people not to buy into these sort of fear tactics that people also often use during political games. People need to know the facts. These are the facts as I presented them and I hope that that at least does not become a reason for people not to want to vote for me."

I understand that Obama wants to set the record straight. He needs to do that. But I have a question. What's so bad about being Muslim? Why does calling someone a Muslim constitute a smear? It says a lot about conservatives that many of them wouldn't be willing to entertain the idea of a Muslim president. Because we're a fifth column, apparently, and we hate America, and all that. Well, to say that you're opposed to the idea of a Muslim president is plain-out racism, and we shouldn't indulge these attitudes or pretend they're legitimate positions to take. Anyway, that's a different issue. In any case, it apparently hasn't occurred to them that someone who has connections to the Muslim world (or whose father was Muslim, god forbid!) might actually do a better job of convincing the world 1.5 billion Muslims - and demonstrating through less antagonistic policies - that America is not diametrically opposed to Islam. But if we won the Uppercase War on Terror - also known as World War IV or, more recently, Cold War II - we'd have nothing left to fight for (or fight against), so never mind.

"We Need to Waterboard More"
Posted by Shadi Hamid

It's one thing to tacitly support torture. It's another thing to actually say outright that we should torture more, and that we should do so "publicly and proudly." I have no explanation for this. I think Ramesh Ponnuru is similarly surprised that his colleague at NR, Deroy Murdock, would say such things, but there you have it:

T]he whole point of my piece is that I AM complaining that we do NOT waterboard enough. Yes, we need to waterboard more. At the moment, waterbaording appears to have been banned by both the CIA and the Pentagon. As I say pretty directly in my piece, Bush should reinstate waterboarding publicly and proudly, and I called him deluded for thinking he would gain anything by going along with the Left and ditching waterboarding. . . .

I hope this clears up any confusion you might have had.

Confusion cleared.

Run and Gun
Posted by Max Bergmann

9781414317304 Another great find from Pat Barry of NSN... Freedom loving linebackers have arrived to save us from Islamofascistjihabistsalafism. 

Jason Elam, the kicker for the Denver Broncos, has teamed up with his pastor to write a book titled - no joke - Monday Night Jihad. Apparently the NFL is under attack. Here is an excerpt (via withleather)...

"A story that combines all the action of a first-rate spy thriller with the intrigue of professional sports. After a tour of duty in Afghanistan, Riley Covington is living his dream as a professional linebacker when he comes face-to-face with a radical terrorist group on his own home turf. Drawn into the nightmare around him, Riley returns to his former life as a member of a special ops team that crosses oceans in an attempt to stop the source of the escalating attacks.

But time is running out, and it soon becomes apparent that the terrorists are on the verge of achieving their goal: to strike at the very heart of America."

Going Home
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

The Washington Post misses the boat today in writing about Iraqi refugees

The drop in violence caused by the U.S. troop increase in Iraq has prompted refugees to begin returning to their homes, American and Iraqi officials said Wednesday.

Tahsin al-Sheikhly, an Iraqi government spokesman, said 46,030 displaced Iraqis had returned last month from outside the country to their homes in the capital. He declined to comment on how the government determined those statistics.

What the Post neglects to mention and the AP reported yesterday is that after having a relatively open border policy Syria and Jordan have completely clamped down in the last few months. 

Last month's numbers coincide with Syria and Jordan tightening their borders to Iraqis fleeing their homeland.

Syria is home to at least 1.2 million Iraqi refugees, and Jordan has about 750,000. Many of those Iraqis are living in limbo, unable to work and running out of any money they were able to bring out of Iraq.

Syria began demanding visas for Iraqis last month and Jordan has increasingly turned back Iraqis.

Those who fled to the two neighboring countries before the new restrictions were put in place are now forced to leave when residency permits expire, unless they have been officially recognized by the United Nations as refugees — a process that can take months.

Another thing that the Post omits is that IDP numbers are rising dramatically even as refugee numbers have stabilized.  In other words the same number of people are being displaced.  It’s just that because the borders have closed more of them are getting stuck inside Iraq.  This again would tend to reinforce the argument that the new numbers have a lot more to do with harsher border policies than anything else.  Saying that refugees are returning is one thing.  Saying that Sunnis who were ethnically cleansed out of mixed neighborhoods in Baghdad are now returning to those neighbors seems incredibly dubious.

A Reasonable Approach on Pakistan
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

As I’ve written before and many have agreed we are stuck in total policy paralysis on Pakistan much the way we were in the final days of the Shah.  I have a proposal in my inbox this morning from Senator Obama seems like an utterly reasonable first step (I'll link to it if I find it).  A good way to start pressuring Musharraf while not undermining the counterterrorism mission or hurting the Pakistani people.

Basically, what Obama is arguing for is maintaining support for the counterterrorism mission and economic aid and development assistance.  But temporarily cutting off aid for a good chunk of the military hardware (we all know that this is aimed at India).  Once democracy is restored and the Pakistanis demonstrate that they have a clear plan for how to deal with the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the Northwestern tribal areas, the aid can resume. 

One of the key elements here is that the Bush Administration has asked for $300 million in Foreign Military Financing.  Much of this goes towards tactical missile defense system (that you imagine are to be used against India), anti tank missles (Last I checked Al Qaeda’s vehicle of choice is not the tank), Naval weapons systems that are to be used for in close range (I don’t think the Pakistani military will be fighting any naval battles with Al Qaeda anytime soon).  There’s also a $380 million that will be a direct cash transfer into Pakistan’s treasury and that we have little oversight over.

This approach seems utterly reasonable to me.  Rather than blindly continue to support the Pakistanis, use this to pressure Musharraf without undermining the counterterrorism mission or development aid.

Update: Biden says something similar and also quite reasonable.

Update II:  Obama's release.

What should we do about Saudi Arabia?
Posted by Shadi Hamid

A $20 billion arms deal to Saudi Arabia and other gulf states is in the works. Is such a deal a good idea? And what should the Bush administration do instead? I've co-written a piece with Stephen McInerney (director of advocacy at POMED) attempting to answering these questions. The article is out now at The New Republic. Make sure to give it a read. It's an urgent issue - we still have time to block (or add conditions) to the deal, or at least parts of it. Here's a teaser from the piece:

But the President's certification comes amid debate over a much more consequential form of assistance to Saudi Arabia --a deal to sell $20 billion worth of arms to the kingdom and other Gulf states over ten years. First proposed in July and currently pending further action by the White House, the terms have met opposition in Congress, where concerns about the real level of Saudi commitment to fighting terrorism remain. A letter by Representative Anthony Weiner (D-NY), signed by a bipartisan group of 114 members of Congress, argues, "Saudi Arabia has not behaved like an ally of the United States. They have exported fighters and suicide bombers to the war in Iraq. They have provided funding for terrorist activities throughout the world."

But this, and most other recent criticisms of Saudi Arabia, omits what may be the most troubling aspect of the country's behavior and the most threatening to long-term U.S. interests: The appalling state of human rights and the lack of meaningful political reform in the kingdom. The problem is not that the Saudi regime directly encourages terrorist activity, as Weiner's letter suggests, but rather that the political situation in the country provides the conditions that spur disenchanted Saudis to violence. Surprisingly few U.S. politicians--and none of the leading presidential candidates--have raised this concern in response to the arms deal, even though Saudi repression isn't exactly a secret.

Well, what should we about it?

Continue reading "What should we do about Saudi Arabia?" »

November 07, 2007

Intellectually Bankrupt?
Posted by Heather Hurlburt

What if John Podhoretz, the new editor of Commentary magazine, visited Democracy Arsenal and couldn't find anything substantive to pick a fight with us about?  Couldn't happen, right?  They're not that bankrupt?

Courtesy of Matt Bass at TAPPED, yes they are.   I don't mind being called a poseur for complaining about my ailments -- it's kinda fun to think about when changing diapers with my good arm, and my Puritan ancestors would approve -- but come on.  I wanted to send Podhoretz a thank-you note and a couple complimentary Vicodin, but I fear that would be illegal.  So he'll just have to accept our friendly welcome.

PS.  Attentive reader Neil reminds me that I've neglected to link to my debate with David Frum, ex-Bush speechwriter, over at bloggingheads, which I imagine is what brought us to Commentary's attention.  David is smart and manages to be firm in his opposition without excessive rudeness or ad hominem (ad feminam??  Latin scholars?) which is why I enjoy debating him.  Although his concluding extraterrestrials/neo-cons/religious persuasion riff at the end left me speechless, something that doesn't happen every day.    

Looking for Moderate Islamists
Posted by Shadi Hamid

The debate over whether to engage with Islamists will continue, although it appears something of a consensus may be emerging. Whatever side you're on, it's worth keeping an eye on the new generation of Islamists for whom 9/11 was a defining moment almost as much as it was for many of us here in the U.S., if perhaps for somewhat different reasons. One of the more prominent of this emerging group is Ibrahim El Houdaiby, the grandson of former Muslim Brotherhood general guide Hasan el-Houdaiby. I got to know Houdaiby two summers ago in Egypt, when I was interviewing many of the Brotherhood's leaders. Unlike the MB's older generation, Houdaiby speaks (and writes) excellent English, and did his undergraduate degree at the American University in Cairo (one of the few remaining strongholds of the Egyptian secular elite).

I remember the first time I met him at a cafe near Tahrir Square. As I walked in, he was talking to two young women (Western researchers themselves) in his usual, animated way, about politics, religion, and philosophy. Houdaiby was smiling and seemed to be enjoying himself, which may not seem like a big deal except that Islamists tend to interact with members of the opposite sex in a rather stilted, formal manner. This, itself, cast an impression. I could tell he was different. And, indeed, he is, as his slew of recent opeds would suggest. Houdaiby has apparently been on a tear, getting his views out to quite a diverse audience. To my knowledge, he is the first Muslim Brotherhood member to publish in the Forward, which struck me as a big deal when it happened (Oren Rawls, the Forward's opinion editor, thought so too). In an organization long defined by a culture of obedience, here you had Houdaiby openly criticizing - in an American Jewish newspaper no less - his own leader, General Guide Mahdi Akef, for his troubling attitudes towards women. It wasn't revolutionary, but it was something.

Houdaiby has also been an outspoken proponent of an official U.S.-Islamist dialogue. Where many other Islamists are afraid to be associated with the U.S., Houdaiby is of a different mind, as he makes clear in this op-ed. If you're concerned that he's just pandering to Western audiences, you can find out for yourself by reading his personal blog in Arabic.

Something's happening in Northern Virginia...
Posted by Max Bergmann

Sprawl The Democratic take over of the State Senate in Virginia and Tim Kaine's victory in 2005 were due largely to Democratic gains in rapidly growing exurban counties in Northern Virginia. Some see this merely as the result of population growth, as more traditionally urban-based liberals have moved into formerly rural and conservative areas. Another popular attribution is that this is apart of the backlash against George Bush. There is certainly something to both of these points, but they fail to completely explain the turnaround.

What we are seeing isn’t just some psychological shift - but a backlash. At the local level, where the rubber literally meets the road, Republicans have been in charge and have pursued conservative free market policies that have created increasing sprawl and increasing traffic that are directly impacting quality of life.

Continue reading "Something's happening in Northern Virginia..." »

Lame Ducks
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Jon Alterman expresses some serious skepticism about the upcoming Middle East peace conference in Annapolis and I think he's right on the money.

Ms Rice brings together two leaders - Israel's Ehud Olmert and the Palestinians' Mahmoud Abbas - in the twilight of their political careers. They are widely ridiculed for their naivety about the nature of their adversary. Political weakness compels the Palestinian side to demand more, and the Israeli side to surrender less. Meanwhile, they are being brought together under the aegis of a US president in the twilight of his own political career, one so burdened with Middle Eastern problems that the Arab-Israeli conflict is now his number three priority in the Middle East, after Iraq and Iran.

One of the main reasons that Oslo was successful is that both Rabin and Arafat were popular and politically powerful in 1992.  They were able to take a risk and rally their people behind a bold idea.  Meanwhile, in 2000 Arafat and Barak were politically weak and Clinton was on his way out, making it much more difficult for any of these players to take the necessary risks to bring about an agreement.  Today looks much more like 2000 than 1992. 

November 06, 2007

More Proof That Any Idiot Could Have Seen This Coming
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Just more proof of the shocking incompetence of the Bush Administration getting caught without a genuine Pakistan expert working the issue in State, DOD or the NSC.  Anyone could have seen this coming.  Here's what I wrote three months ago.

With the entire mess going on in Pakistan I can’t help but get a sense that the American reaction to what is going on there today is very similar to what we did with Iran in 1979.

In the 1970s the U.S. armed Iran to the teeth, and counted on it to keep the peace in the Persian Gulf, guarantee shipping lanes for oil and balance the Soviets in the region.  All of our eggs were in that basket and when the Shah started to teeter Washington went into full policy paralysis.  Some in the Carter Administration, most notably Zbig Brzezinski, argued that the consequences of the Shah’s fall were so detrimental to American interests that we had to buck him up and encourage him to take firm steps to quell the rebellion.  Meanwhile, the State Department argued for engaging the Iranian opposition so that we would be well positioned if the Shah fell.  Carter did neither.  Supporting a crackdown was too morally reprehensible, but talking to the opposition was seen as giving up on the Shah and making him look even weaker.  In the end, the U.S. did nothing:  slowly watching the situation deteriorate; giving the Shah its official support; doing little to actually keep him in power; and doing even less to prepare for the possibility that his government would collapse.  Worst of both worlds.

"The Forgotten Front"
Posted by Max Bergmann

Afghan_cover_2 Caroline Wadhams and Larry Korb came out with a new report on Afghanistan today titled the "Forgotten Front." The report concludes that,

The Bush administration has fundamentally misread the situation in Afghanistan and failed to adapt quickly enough to the growing insurgency and shifting dynamics on the ground.

The report recommends "folding counterterrorism efforts into a counterinsurgency strategy" and to increase troop levels by about 20,000. There's lots more on the political and reconstructions side as well.

In light of the situation in Pakistan, the report also argues that,

Musharraf's approach has led to growing Islamist extremism during his rule and a radicalization of Pakistani youth, especially Pashtun youth. 'By undermining Pakistan's large relatively secular parties, he has left mosques and madrassas as the most potent vehicles for political expression.

Lack of Expertise
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Via Matt Yglesias we find out that

The problem is exacerbated by a dramatic drop-off in U.S. expertise on Pakistan. Retired American officials say that, for the first time in U.S. history, nobody with serious Pakistan experience is working in the South Asia bureau of the State Department, on State's policy planning staff, on the National Security Council staff or even in Vice President Cheney's office.

The thing that is so absolutely frustrating about this situation and makes it that much worse is that any idiot who has followed foreign affairs at all, even the littlest bit, over the past year has known that this was a possible major danger area.  It's not like Nepal blew up and we weren't ready for it.  This is freakin' Pakistan!

Update:  Don Bacon has more in comments.

Personality over Process
Posted by Max Bergmann

Musharraf_putin300_030205_3 Vali Nasr, a professor at Tufts, has a good piece in the Christian Science Monitor concerning the events in Pakistan. He comes to a worrisome conclusion...

The longer Musharraf stays in power the more Pakistan will look like Iran in 1979: an isolated and unpopular ruler hanging on to power only to inflame passions and bring together his Islamic and pro-democracy opposition into a dangerous alliance.

It is definitely not good that moderate lawyers and violent religious extremists are on the same side oppossing Musharraf. As Nasr points out, suspending the constitution is not about combating extremists or terrorism, or about restoring order. Instead it is about Musharraf trying to hold on to power - a classic authoritarian move.

This does not mean we should necessarily abandon Musharraf, but at the very least the events in Pakistan expose that it is very dangerous to have a foreign policy that values personality over process. The President trusted Musharraf because he looked him in the eye, just as he has trusted Putin because he magically looked into his soul, and ever since the focus of American foreign policy toward these countries has largely been about maintaining or supporting these personal relationships, at the expense of emphasizing democratic processes. And as a result both are less democratic and have each moved in a direction contrary to US interests, with Russia more authoritarian and assertive and Pakistan more unstable.

Cutting the Cord on Musharraf, and a Moratorium on Making Eye Contact with Foreign Leaders
Posted by Shadi Hamid

Josh Kurlantzick has an excellent piece in TNR on Pakistan. He hammers in the point that Musharraf has not been good for democracy or for stability, and, to boot, he's been strikingly ineffective in the one thing he's supposed to be good at - fighting terrorism. The conclusion then? It's time to abandon Mush. Personally, I'm not sure I'd go so far to say abandon him altogether (if only because that would be impractical and no one in the foreign policy establishment would go for it), but I think there's no doubt that serious and sustained pressure must be exerted on him, with clear expectations of what we'd like to see in response. If that doesn't work, then we need to follow through with aid cuts. In any case, make sure to read Kurlantzick's whole piece. It's a strong case he makes:

It's time for America to cut the cord on Musharraf and throw in entirely with the country's democratic forces. The Bush administration has repeatedly called for elections in Pakistan, and Musharraf has ignored it. The administration has funneled gargantuan sums of money to Pakistan--over $10 billion since the 9/11 attacks--and Musharraf has misspent that. Despite some initial, post-9/11 victories against extremists near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, Musharraf has allowed radical movements in Pakistan to multiply, while stifling the change Pakistan truly needs: the development of a new generation of democratic-minded leaders that would challenge the generals and corrupt old politicians for power.

But, wait, why is the U.S. so unwilling to take decisive action on the matter? Well, maybe it's because Bush is using the same personal-gut-radar that failed him (and us and, well, millions of Russians) so miserably before. 

As Derek Chollet and Craig Cohen note recent article in the Washington Quarterly, President Bush announced last year: "When [Musharraf] looks me in the eye and says there won't be a Taliban and won't be Al Qaeda, I believe him."

I hereby propose a moratorium on making extensive eye contact with foreign leaders. Any takers?

Talking to the Iranians Actually Works
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Last week Secretary Gates told reporters that EFP attacks in Iraq were way down and that Iran had curbed its supply efforts into Iran. Today the U.S. military announced that it would release nine Iranian "captives" (Best to avoid the word diplomat or intelligence operative).  According to Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, director of the Multi-National Force-Iraq's communications division:

Iran appeared to have kept its promise to stop the flow into Iraq of bomb-making materials and other weaponry that Washington says has inflamed insurgent and militia violence and killed hundreds of U.S. forces.

Look at that.  Diplomacy works.

November 05, 2007

Yitzhak Rabin
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Yesterday was the 12th anniversary of Rabin's assassination.  Rabin, more than any other politician, was the man who I most wanted to emulate when I was a student first getting interested in foreign policy.  I am not a big believer in the "great people in history" theory.  But in this case, I genuinely believe that if he hadn't been assassinated the Middle East would look like a very different place today. 

Bill Clinton has a wonderful tribute on Middle East Progress.

Iraq is Great Once You Get Used to the Mortars
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

This tidbit brought to you via Patrick Barry:  NSN's newest staff member.

Deputy Chief Patricia Butenis should really work on her pitch if she expects more State Department employees to pack their bags and head to Baghdad.   

"There are all kinds of opportunities here," said Patricia Butenis, the deputy chief of the US mission.

"There are people who think we live under a constant barrage of mortar attacks, but it isn't that way all the time."

"I think some of it is based on not knowing what it is to be here. It's true, two days after I got here we had 36 EFP (explosively-formed penetrators) strikes," she said.

"That was serious, it's scary. But you adapt, you get used to it."

Ethnic Cleansing and Reduction in Violence
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

As I've mentioned before, to a great extent the reduction in sectarian violence in Iraq has been partially due to ethnic cleansing, which has physically separated the Sunni and Shi'a populations.  People don't kill each other when they are physically separated.  Today comes this news from the Iraqi Red Crescent.

Nearly 2.3 million Iraqis -- the vast majority of them women and children -- have fled their homes but remain inside the country's borders and are in urgent need of basic care, according to a report issued Monday by the Iraqi Red Crescent.

The number of internally displaced people, or IDPs, in Iraq grew by 16 percent in September -- to 2,299,425, the Red Crescent said. That figure has skyrocketed since the beginning of 2007, when less than half a million people were listed as displaced.

Those are some pretty astounding statistics and seem to reinforce the point.  Although to be fair, according to the UN High Commissioner on Refugees the numbers started to move in February 2006 after the Samarra bombing.  I'm not sure what explains the discrepancy between the two reports, but either way in the last year and a half you've had massive ethnic cleansing.

Also, it's worth pointing out that part of the reason for the rise in IDPs relative to refugees is that after keeping their borders open for the first couple of years, Syria and Jordan have closed up the borders.   They were simply too overwhelmed by refugees.  Unfortunately, this only exacerbates a bad situation for the Iraqi people.

Can Waterboard Rudy please define the word "torture"
Posted by Max Bergmann

If waterboarding isn't torture, then I clearly have no idea what the meaning of the word torture is. I am really curious what Rudy Giuliani considers to be "torture"? So because I am so confused, Waterboard Rudy should set all of us straight and simply define what he means by torture.

Here is a video of someone being tortur...uhh... being subject to "enhanced interrogation techniques."

Condi's "Transformation"
Posted by Shadi Hamid

It seems to me that Fred Kaplan’s Wash Post article on Condi’s “transformation” really gets her wrong. Among other problems, Kaplan concludes: “[Rice’s] epitaph will endure: She pursued democracy at the expense of stability, and achieved neither.” I'm going to have to disagree with Ilan, and say that this assessment is plain-out wrong. Rice never seriously pursued democracy at all, and to say that she did gives credit where it isn't due. She talked a lot about democracy, but, on the ground where it matters most, she did very little. There was a brief moment in early 2005 when Condi put some pressure on recalcitrant Arab regimes, particularly Egypt, but this was short-lived. Before long, Condi and the rest of the administration had reverted to a realist approach, where they indulged the so-called “moderate Arab regimes" like Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, the UAE, Qatar – all American allies, and all quite repressive. In short, to pretend that Condi was a true believer is to take her words at face value while totally ignoring what she actually did.

The second issue I have is that Kaplan laments Condi’s turnaround from disciple of arch-realist Brent Scrowcroft to someone who could write that “the fundamental character of regimes matters more today than the international distribution of power." In this, Condi was right, and one wishes that she would have put this rhetoric into practice and ushered a welcome and long overdue break with the foreign policy consensus of the previous five decades – the very consensus that had given us the Middle East of September 10th, a veritable powder keg of economic stagnation, brutal political repression, and religious fanaticism. And then September 11th occurred, and we were right to question this consensus which privileged “stability” over all else, while giving us neither stability nor security. Does Fred Kaplan long for a return to the type of policies which contributed to – or caused – the debacles of 1953 (U.S. sponsored coup of the democratically-elected Iranian PM), the 1980s (Afghanistan), 1991a (when we had a chance to get rid of Saddam but didn’t, because Scrowcroft and Baker didn’t give a damn about Iraqi democracy), 1991b (U.S. tacit approval of the Algerian military coup which effectively ended what was, up until then, the most promising democratic experiment in the Arab world)?

Of course, we have short memories. The Middle East is a mess today, not just because of this current Bush administration, but also because of the accumulated mistakes and tragic calculations of a pre-9/11 foreign policy establishment which rarely, if ever, cared about the democratic aspirations of the Arab people, and instead cared all too much about keeping friendly dictators in power, with our tax dollars no less. Actions have consequences, as we would soon find out. The internal character of regimes does matter, and in recognizing this, Condi was right on target. We shouldn’t criticize her for coming up with the right conclusions; we should criticize her – and harshly – for failing to put them into practice, for saying that she believed in Arab democracy, when her actions, in fact, contradicted that belief in quite a stark fashion.

A Rare Opportunity for the Bush Administration
Posted by Shadi Hamid

The Bush administration's Pakistan policy has been pretty bad over the last few years (like with nearly everything else). However, today, the Bush administration, and particularly Condi Rice, has a rare opportunity to do the right thing, and put its muscle where its mouth is. It is unclear to what extent administration officials gave the go-ahead for Musharraf's declaration of emergency rule. There was obviously some discussion with Musharraf of what his announcement would mean in practice, and, apparently, Musharraf assuaged some of their concerns by pledging to hold elections within the next two months. But, it appears Mush is backing away from this promise, with some in the ruling party, including PM Shaukat Aziz, saying that elections could be delayed as much as one year.

Time and time again, the Bush administration has said that democracy promotion is one of its top priorities and forms a central component of its policy toward the Muslim world. And, each time, it has disappointed us. The gap between rhetoric and policy has become unforgivably vast. No one believes a word the administration says anymore on this matter. But, today (yes - actually today), the administration's true believers (are there any?) have a rare opportunity to make amends. And, in this, I would very much like to see them succeed. 

According to today's Guardian, "The US and Britain are today expected to demand that Pakistan's president, Pervez Musharraf, honour pledges to hold elections in the next two months and step down as the army chief, or face a cut in western support." Yes, let us hope. The Bush administration has its chance to show the world that it can still do the right thing, even when everyone expects it to do the opposite. And, no, it's not rocket science. This is what any talks with dictators, including our friend Musharraf, should entail. If you insist on ending the little that was left of Pakistani democracy, then there will be unmistakable consequences. In no uncertain terms, the Bush administration must make this clear. If you would like to continue enjoying our financial, military, and political support, then you must respect the rules of the democratic game. No ifs, ands, and buts. Maybe Condi, professed lover of democracy, will really, finally, shed her realist past and show us that her rhetoric is more than just that.

Democracy in Pakistan
Posted by Shadi Hamid

I’m a big proponent of the notion that democracy provides the only long-term solution to the myriad economic, political, and religious problems of the Muslim world. Often times, when people want to counter this, they bring up the example of Pakistan. And, yes, Pakistan is one of those places where the tensions between interests and ideals, between what is and what should be, come into sharp relief. It’s not as simple to say that we need to push Musharraf toward democracy full-stop. Pakistan is considerably less stable than many other Muslim countries, and there is the real threat that the country could become increasingly ungovernable (this is already the case in the Northwest Frontier).

So we have to try to balance these concerns. At the same time, the case of Pakistan also clearly demonstrates that supporting dictators in the name of stability rarely ever results in actual stability. We have been pumping support into Musharaf’s regime since 9/11, and Pakistan has become less – not more – stable. That’s because while authoritarian rule may appear to be an attractive short-term stopgap measure, it never addresses the underlying structural problems which contribute to the rise of extremism and terror.

Democracy is the only way to effectively channel grievances in a constructive, peaceful manner, assuming of course that institutions are strong and autonomous enough to absorb societal pressures. Which is why from day one, after the September 11 attacks, the Bush administration should have had a plan and have been asking themselves, “while we will continue to support Musharraf in the war on terror, how can we use our considerable leverage to pressure him to take real steps toward real political reform?” This question may have been asked, but it was never answered. And for those who say that full-on democracy in Pakistan would bring radicals to power, they are, well, wrong. There is no risk of Islamist takeover through free elections. Unlike in the Arab world, Islamist parties in Pakistan are relatively weak and marginal, rarely rising above 15% support. In Pakistan, three large catch-all parties (the PML-Q, PML-N, and PPP) – all of them more or less secular – command the vast majority of electoral support.

Again, the Bush administration, through its mixture of neglect, inconsistency, and incompetence, has contributed to an unfortunate situation in Pakistan. And, again, like in Iran, Iraq, and Palestine, we have no choice but to choose among the best of the worst available options.

November 04, 2007

Condi's Transformation
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Understanding Condi Rice's transformation from the realist Scrowcroft protege into the idealistic and ineffective democracy promoter is one of the big foreign policy mysteries of this administration.  I don't think anyone outside of Condi Rice will ever ever understand exactly what happed, but Fred Kaplan takes a crack at it.  His final assessment is on the money: "Long after her celebrity and charm have been forgotten, her epitaph will endure: She pursued democracy at the expense of stability, and achieved neither." 

2004 Democrats and 2008 Republicans
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Drawing clear historical analogies is always a little dangerous.  You can create perceived connections where none actually exist.  So with the disclaimer that this post is a bit silly, I can’t help thinking that the 2008 Republican primary field looks a lot like the 2004 Democratic field.  The dynamic of the races is similar in that primary voters aren’t excited about any of the candidates, but are most mobilized by the fear of four years of George Bush (2004) / Hillary Clinton (2008).  The candidates are also pretty similar:

A leader in the polls who stumbles early because he is completely out of touch with his party on key issues.  Lieberman Iraq 2004.  McCain immigration/Iraq 2008.

The great hope who comes late into the race to save the day, but turns out to be a pretty lousy campaigner.  Clark 2004.  Thompson 2008.

The affable Southerner, who barley registers nationally, but uses a strong showing in Iowa to pick up momentum and catapult himself into the Vice President’s spot on the ticket.  Edwards 2004.  Huckabee 2008.

The fall front runner. He continues to defy pundits’ expectations by maintaining a sizable lead, despite his obvious shortcomings.  Ultimately, he’s just too eccentric to be the nominee.  Dean 2004.  Giuliani 2008.

He feels like the most Presidential.  Has a bit of a flip flopping problem.  But he’s the most electable.  Oh, and he comes from Massachusetts…

Anyway, come back in three months when I’m sure all of this will be proven completely wrong.

Worst Blog Post Ever
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Kevin Drum has a pretty amusing list of the wingnuttiest blog posts ever.  As someone who only started reading blogs closely a year ago, I found this to be an educational experience.  Some are just purely offensive:  Where was the spirit of self defense following the Virginia Tech shootings; Attention Superdome residents grow gills; or a horrible song about Muslims with participation from what look to be teenagers

But I think the genuinely dumbest commentary comes from Steven Den Beste who wrote before the Iraq War:

I'm deeply concerned about the French. In January I wrote about my concern that their opposition seemed to go well beyond anything which made sense in terms of any kind of motivation I could identify, and speculated that maybe there was some far more deep and critical explanation for it which was much more sinister. Since then their resistance has made less and less sense, and what I worry about now is that if they think the stakes are so high, no matter why that might be, that they're clearly willing to sacrifice the UN and NATO and even the process of formation of the EU itself just to oppose the war despite having only negligible chance of actually preventing it, then maybe they might be willing to go to even greater lengths against us, extending beyond the diplomatic. De facto they're allied with Saddam even if there's no publicly-declared treaty or agreement; so will they be willing to intervene militarily? Will they smuggle some sort of weaponry in? Or ship it in openly?

If 20 cargo jets take off from French territory and head towards the middle east, what will we do? If they ignore all attempts to prevent them from reaching Iraq, would we be willing to actually shoot one or more of them down?

Just how far are they willing to take their opposition to us? They've reached the point where it seems as if they're willing to make any sacrifice. Do they see the stakes as being high enough so that they might actually threaten to nuke us?

Guest Contributors
Subscribe
Sign-up to receive a weekly digest of the latest posts from Democracy Arsenal.
Email: 
Search


www Democracy Arsenal
Google
Powered by TypePad

Disclaimer

The opinions voiced on Democracy Arsenal are those of the individual authors and do not represent the views of any other organization or institution with which any author may be affiliated.
Read Terms of Use