New Thread: Petraeus's Testimony Fact Check
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg
Petraeus: Iraq-wide, as shown by the top line on this chart, the number of ethno-sectarian deaths has come down by over 55%,
The Pentagon and Administration’s definition of “Ethno sectarian
violence” excludes many types of violence that would indicate that the
security situation in Iraq is not improving. Shi’a on Shi’a
violence in the South is not included. Sunni on Sunni violence in the
central part of the country is not included. “According to one senior
intelligence official in Washington. ‘If a bullet went through the back
of the head, it's sectarian,’ the official said. ‘If it went through
the front, it's criminal.’" [Washington Post, 9/6/07]
According to numbers released by the Iraqi government, since July civilian casualties have risen 20% across Iraq. The numbers fell significantly in Baghdad. The figures, provided by Iraqi Interior Ministry officials on Saturday, mirrored the geographic pattern of the troop increase, which is focused on Baghdad. The national rise in mortality is partly a result of more than 500 deaths, in an August truck bomb attack on a Yazidi community in August north of the capital, outside the areas directly affected by the additional troops. [NY Times, 9/2/07]
Various numbers from the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior show no drop in violence. According to the Iraqi Ministry of Interior, 984 people were killed across Iraq in February, and 1,011 died in violence in August. No July numbers were released because the ministry said the numbers weren't clear. But an official in the ministry who spoke anonymously because he wasn't authorized to release numbers said those numbers were heavily manipulated. The official said 1,980 Iraqis had been killed in July and that violent deaths soared in August, to 2,890. [McClatchy, 9/10/07]
Petraeus: "Though the improvements have been uneven across Iraq, the overall number of security incidents in Iraq has declined in 8 of the past 12 weeks, with the numbers of incidents in the last two weeks at the lowest levels seen since June 2006."
According to General Petraeus Attacks are only down in only one of the last three weeks, but at the same time we have hit an all time low? In the National Intelligence Estimate released three weeks ago said that overall attacks had fallen in 7 out of 9 weeks. “The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks.” [National Intelligence Estimate]
The DIA’s statistics show that attacks on civilians were at the same level in July that they were in, back in January. The defense intelligence chart makes the point, with figures from Petraeus' command in Baghdad, the Multinational Force-Iraq. Congressional auditors used the same numbers to conclude that Iraqis are as unsafe now as they were six months ago; the Bush administration and military officials also using those figures say that finding is flawed. [AP, 9/9/07]
Petraeus: We endeavor to ensure our analysis of that data is conducted with rigor and consistency, as our ability to achieve a nuanced understanding of the security environment is dependent on collecting and analyzing data in a consistent way over time.
There were significant revisions to the way the Pentagon’s reports measure sectarian violence between its March 2007 report and its June 2007 report. The original data for the five months before the surge began (September 2006 through January 2007) indicated approximately 5,500 sectarian killings. In the revised data in the June 2007 report, those numbers had been adjusted to roughly 7,400 killings – a 35% increase. These discrepancies have the impact of making the sectarian violence appear significantly worse during the fall and winter of 2006 before the President’s “surge” began. [DOD, 11/2006. 3/2007. 6/2007]
For more information click here.
Additional comments below the fold
Petraeus: That assessment is supported by the findings of a 16 August Defense Intelligence Agency report on the implications of a rapid withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. Summarizing it in an unclassified fashion, it concludes that a rapid withdrawal would result in the further release of the strong centrifugal forces in Iraq and produce a number of dangerous results, including a high risk of disintegration of the Iraqi Security Forces
Lantos points out that this is a disingenuous comparison. Nobody is talking about leaving in 2 weeks. Most are talking about a year. What is Petraeus's view on the reasonable middle grounds that are being presented by many military experts. Including his superior, Admiral Fallon.
3:28: Think Progress has a great nugget on overblowing success in Anbar.
4:02: Petraeus just acknowledged that the major threat is Al Qaeda central and that he has no ideas what Al Qaeda in Iraq would do if we left. In other words: doesn't sound like he's buying into this whole "fight them there so we don't have to fight them here"
I just found this site from a referral at Americablog. Great job! Thank you for liveblogging the Petraeus dog and pony show.
Posted by: Litterbox | September 10, 2007 at 02:38 PM
Okay, I'm convinced, things are more than fifty per cent better, time to go, let's get out. I previously thought the situation was as bad or worse, but I've seen the light. Pack up, guys, the trucks are waiting to take you to the planes.
Posted by: Don Bacon | September 10, 2007 at 05:17 PM
Good round-up of counter testimony.
At unbossed.com, I pointed out that one of Petraeus' slides today was woefully and probably deliberately misleading. It pretends that there has been no ethno-sectarian cleansing since December, whereas in fact Sunnis have been forced out of whole neighborhoods in droves.
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