More Fuzziness Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Hat tip to Brian Katulis at CAP who clued me on to this issue and Spencer Ackerman has already got a great post on this. 

Basically there are more serious questions about the violence numbers that are being reported out of Iraq.  The Pentagon is congressionally mandated to produce a quarterly progress report to Congress measuring stability in Iraq.  Each of these reports has a graphic measuring sectarian violence.  The last four reports were August, 29 2006 (pg 35), November 30, 2006 (pg 24), March 2, 2007 (pg 17) and June 7, 2007 (pg 17).

I graphed the levels of sectarian violence from these various reports and found some confusing trends.  The abnormalities have been labeled A, B and C.  (There is no difference between the November report and the March report and thus they overlap).

Abnormality A:  Between August and November 2006, DOD started reclassifying “casualties” as “deaths by execution” and suddenly you see a dramatic drop in killings.  For example, in March 2006 right after the Samarra Mosque bombings you go from 1,750 “casualties” to 750 “deaths by execution.”  Between November 2006 and March 2007 “Deaths by Execution” becomes “Sectarian Murders” but the numbers remain the same.

Abnormality B:  Between the March 2007 report and the June 2007 report there was a dramatic change in the number of killings that were reported for the second half of 2006.  In both cases the numbers were described as “sectarian murders.”  The impact here is that it makes the “pre surge” situation look extraordinarily dire and therefore signals progress thereafter.

Abnormality C:  Somehow the reclassification that occurred between the March and June 2007 reports caused the violence numbers in April and May of 2006 to drop dramatically.  This was in the months following the Sammara bombings in February 2006 when sectarian violence was escalating. 

I really have no idea why these numbers are so inconsistent, but it does lead me to call into question the violence numbers that are being reported by the Administration, when it touts progress.  Clearly certain types of violence have been taken out and others have been added. What we need is some transparency.  Congress needs to take a very careful look at the numbers that come before it in September

Update:  Slight correction.  I changed the legend so that Nov. 07/Mar. 07 now reads Nov. 06/Mar. 07. 

Comments

[Greg Sanders]

Great investigative reporting here. I'll probably pass this around. Quick heads up on a typo though, I assume the graph is supposed to say Nov-06/Mar-07 and not Nov-07/Mar-07.

[SteveB]

Are you suggesting that the Central Committee is not being honest about where we stand with regard to the goals of the current five-year plan? Double-plus ungood!

[Robert Waldmann]

What Greg said you double plus ungood unperson.

[Don Bacon]

I'm sorry, but charting unreliable statistics on peoples' deaths and then referring to "violence" and "abnormalities" and "inconsistencies" and "sectarian murders" versus "executions" is, to me, a bit bizarre (to quote a Juan Cole adjective) if not obscene. How hellish is hell? Why would a decreasing death rate be a good thing?

from Juan Cole
"I personally find the controversy about Iraq in Washington to be bizarre. Are they really arguing about whether the situation is improving? I mean, you have the Night of the Living Dead over there. People lack potable water, cholera has broken out even in the good areas, a third of people are hungry, a doubling of the internally displaced to at least 1.1 million, and a million pilgrims dispersed just this week by militia infighting in a supposedly safe all-Shiite area. The government has all but collapsed, with even the formerly cooperative sections of the Sunni Arab political class withdrawing in a snit (much less more Sunni Arabs being brought in from the cold). The parliament hasn't actually passed any legislation to speak of and often cannot get a quorum. Corruption is endemic. The weapons we give the Iraqi army are often sold off to the insurgency. Some of our development aid goes to them, too.

"The average number of Iraqis killed in 2007 per day exceeds those killed in 2006. Independent counts by news organizations do not agree with Pentagon estimates about drops in civilian deaths over-all. Nation-wide attacks in June reached a daily all-time high of 177.5. True, violence in Baghdad has been wrestled back down to the levels of summer, 2006 (hint: it wasn't paradise), but violence levels are up in the rest of the country. If you compare each month in 2006 with each month in 2007 with regard to US military deaths, the 2007 picture is dreadful."

[Ilan G]

Don,

I know it's depressing and completely dehumanizes what's going on in Iraq. But at the same time, it's important to closely dissect the Administration's claims of progress and try to verify whether or not they are true.

[Don Bacon]

Ilan,

I know. I just had to express what we're both (probably) thinking.

Bush has got us debating on his terms, looking at the trees instead of the forest, doing the McNamara/Rumsfeld thing of charting metrics, concerning ourselves with the numbers of corpses instead of the people--real people, not corpses--who are (barely) still alive. Mothers and children trying to stay alive out in the desert somewhere, or in an urban apartment, afraid of every sound, trying to find food and water. Etcetera. I'm going to cry.

[Don Bacon]

from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
Date: 28 Jul 2007

The humanitarian situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate with the number of displaced Iraqis, both inside and outside the country, rising. Now, an estimated 4.2 million Iraqis are have been uprooted from their homes, with the monthly rate of displacement climbing to over 60,000 people compared to 50,000 previously, according to UNHCR and the Iraqi Red Crescent.
http://reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/LSGZ-76HFTA?OpenDocument&rc=3&emid=ACOS-635P5D
----------------------
from International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)
Date: 29 Aug 2007

Today, tens of thousands of families continue to look for their loved ones who are unaccounted for as result of the conflict. According to Iraqi public sources, the number of persons missing since the Iraq-Iran war ranges from 375,000 to 1,000,000. This reflects two main facts:

- The number of persons unaccounted for remains too difficult to estimate with any accuracy ;

- Even if the minimum of 375,000 missing persons is correct, it reflects the scope of this unsolved tragedy faced by both families and missing persons. For each missing person there is not only one person suffering but there are whole families who wait for information or the return of their loved ones.
http://reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/EVOD-76JGPZ?OpenDocument&rc=3&emid=ACOS-635P5D

[last chaos gold]

My friend told me that she would buy lastchaos gold for me, and I was so happy. I do not like to go shopping, because it always spends a lot of money, but I never hesitate to buy lastchaos money. I find fun to buy last chaos gold. I like to discuss with my friends about where to buy cheap lastchaos gold and the equipment I need.

[Rolex Explorer replica watches]

we don't think it is reasonable to spend hundreds thousands dollars to buy a decorating watch. you can use those money to invest in other industry which will return you good profit.
here you just need to spend 100-200 dollars to buy a replica rolex watches.
Rolex Explorer replica watches are made by the rating 1:1 according to the original watches, and you can't distinguish the original and the fake watches when you look at the surface of the watches.

[buy runescape]

I always heard something from my neighbor that he sometimes goes to the internet bar to play the game which will use him some runescape gold

[silkroad gold]

I hope i can get sro gold in low price.
i buy silkroad online gold for you.

[cheap kamas]

There also have a cheap kamas ,In the game, dofus gold is indispensable.

[maple mesos]

Do you like playing the game where you need to use maple mesos, when you do not have mesos,

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[cheap r4i]

Very well written post.I would say the reports don't really resemble a Rorshach. They consist of cooked data. Pentagon statisticians are offering us a lesson in the culinary arts.Thanks.

[rado watches]

If you have PANERAI Watches , I still have my idea to achieve.

[grabspecialsale]

the only hope i have is that they stop all the violence that 'cause people life. the number of death people that they report i agree to that they should take a good look before they reported it. but to me one life still matter...

[superbacnetreatment]

hope things get better over there for the sake of the people..innocence people.

[Satellite TV for PC 2010]

At the end of the day the simple truth is that the costs of regulatory innovations far exceeded the costs of financial innovations and that the benefit from financial innovations far exceeded the benefits from regulatory innovations.

Try to live with it!

[Goji marja]

I really have no idea why these numbers are so inconsistent, but it does lead me to call into question the violence numbers that are being reported by the Administration, when it touts progress.

[good]

this is best
If you desire to excite your dear one with an impressive gift, then Tiffany Jewelry will be right choice. Above all, tiffany jewelry is easily resizable and it of course matches everyone irrespective to age. Tiffany necklaces and earrings will appeal perfectly in the evening party or birthday party. Thee shiny tiffany necklaces and earrings will make you the shiniest one in the crowded. When you appear to people, people will feel shaking beauty. All people will admire you, even the envied women because they can not dispute the beauty of Tiffany necklaces new and you. At our online store you can find the best range of collections including Tiffany necklace, Tiffany replica bracelets, brooches, bands, Tiffany on sale earrings, pendants, silver rings and many more. You can get all these at remarkable price that is absolutely inexpensive. Keep tuned with the latest trends, as Tiffany keeps introducing all new models and des

[Allan1764]

Montblanc Nicolas Rieussec Twin Barrels Replica Watches
Watch symbolize its owners taste and status, so people with important social status or high popularity often pay much attention to their Replica hublot watches. We will share some interesting stories about the famous person and their Montblanc watches.
In 1945, when Chairman Mao went to negotiate with Chiang Kai-shek in Chongqing, Guo Moruo found that Chinaman Mao had no watch, so he sent his Omega replica watches to him. Chairman Mao cherished the watch for a lifetime. A millionaire who owns Chelsea football club had eyes only for Montblanc watches. He collected many priceless Montblanc watches.The Montblanc watches which valued by these famous persons have some feathers in common: they have high quality. Watch is the only adornment for lots of men, then, to some degree, the quality and stylish of watch stand for the style of men.
In the past recent years, replica Montblanc watches surge into the market. Buying such imitation watches has become a trend in modern society. When you are strolling in the street or surfing online, you are prone to find Replica Discount Montblanc Watches. However, the diversity of these counterfeit watches easily gets the customers involved in cheating. It is really sad to spend a large amount of money on an imitation timepiece of inferior quality. Therefore, it is a must to master the difference between good replica watches and those in poor quality.
As a matter of fact, every person has more than one of these splendid watches. Everyone knows that money is hardly owned and it should be carefully used. Therefore, they make an intellectual decision to buy Montblanc Nicolas Rieussec Twin Barrels MB-27 of good quality, chic design and excellent performance. Such accessories are really second-to-none accessories to flaunt before friends and familiar members.
Resource: http://www.replica-mart.com/

[Allan1764]

Get your Pocket Watches and Wristwatches Valued Today
If you’d like to get a watch valued from our online specialist, it’s quick and easy. Please do take several photographs (the clearer the better!) and give as many details as you can. It is particularly helpful for our specialist if you can take photographs of the front and back of your watch. If you already know how to safely and easily access the watch’s movement, do send an image of this too as the type of movement can affect the value greatly – but don’t force your way into the movement as we don’t want you to damage your watch! Please do note down any markings on the valuation form, for example, some watches are engraved with details such as “Guaranteed to wear 20 years” or with stamps such as “14k” or “0.585” and it is very helpful to our specialist if you can note these down, if possible, do take a photograph of these sorts of markings as well. Should your watch have a bracelet, please take a photograph of the clasp (showing any markings if possible). Once you have completed the valuation form, you can sit back and relax; our appraiser will examine your photographs and the details you have provided and within 48 hours you will receive a description, any observations about your watch, together with a valuation and a printable certificate. We will also provide a unique web certificate that can be used in an eBay listing or on other internet selling platforms.
Resource: http://www.replica-mart.com/

[New York DWI lawyer]

simply brilliant. Thanks no words to say other than this for such an informative work. When I can have the next article keep working over this wonderful work.

[zetaclear reviews]

It is particularly helpful for our specialist if you can take photographs of the front and back of your watch. If you already know how to safely and easily access the watch’s movement, do send an image of this too as the type of movement can affect the value greatly – but don’t force your way into the movement as we don’t want you to damage your watch zetaclear reviews

[Liushuanglin198606]

ugg boots clearance On my Egypt Air flight yesterday to Cairo, I witnessed one of the more intriguing in-flight exchanges that I can remember. A bearded, well-dressed man sitting a few seats behind me began shouting at the flight attendant. He was complaining that the in-flight movie was inappropriate. What are these “offensive images?” he asked. These included a 15-minute stretch of the movie where at least one woman at any given time was wearing a bikini. In a couple of scenes at a club, members of opposite sexes were dancing in close proximity while, it appeared, consuming alcoholic beverages. “Are we really all Westernized now?” the man behind me asked,ugg boots clearance as if posing a question to those of us in the back of the plane.

The man’s arguments were rather interesting. He pointed out that if you took a poll of the passengers,ugg boots outlet most would agree the film was morally offensive. He asked the attendant, “if we ask the passengers what they think and they agree with me, then what will you do?” The attendant responded, “we don’t take public opinion (ra’i al ‘am) on the airplane.” The man was right: most passengers, and most Egyptians – the vast majority of whom don’t drink, go to clubs, or wear bikinis – would object to the film’s content. But at what point do they have the right to restrict minority expressions of unfaithfulness?ugg boots clearance

It was an odd, amusing exchange that justified the otherwise unpleasant experience of flying on EgyptAir.ugg boots clearance But it was a reminder of the fundamental lack of consensus in the Arab world over the boundaries and limits of the state. There are two groups – Islamists and secular elites – with worldviews which couldn’t be more different. They live parallel lives in parallel worlds, with parallel institutions. They rarely intersect.ugg boots clearance One group believes it has both history and the Egyptian people on its side. The other side, considerably smaller in number, likely has neither. It does, however, have the power.

This stalemate has paralyzed the Arab world for decades now.ugg boots outlet

Sunday’s elections will be just another version of this.ugg boots clearance The main players are the Muslim Brotherhood – populist, religious, and righteous – and the regime coalition which, with its president soon to pass, finds itself in an uncertain place. Both sides are strong in different ways – and weak in others. Neither seems to have anything resembling a coherent strategy for dealing with the impending transition that is soon to come.

ugg boots clearance

[seo-vancouver]

Fuzziness sometimes is a perfect one to explain sometings.

[News]

i a gree Congress needs to take a very careful look at the numbers that come before it in September. This news in years

[Egitim]

thanks for sharing Sohbet many people are pay more attention to one's wearing than before, especially a watch. Chat .
Perhaps when you went to some place far away Chat you must borrow it from friends Sohbet you can get everything you want in this game
Chat money to invest in other industry which will return you good profit. Sohbet when you look at the surface of the watches
Egitim from the city you live in and thought you knew nobody there exsohbet

[Muzik Shqip 2011]

Lej fleshat, krejt kresha Muzik Shqip stili mili un ta boj ta hydhi. A pi don hajt se ti ap me von. Whyski ne muntun gjith nates nkafe dajes me gjith klasen. Kjo bot spotesh estrada si blondije nga Mp3 Shqip asnihere kresha.

[Russian wives]

I really have no idea why these numbers are so inconsistent, but it does lead me to call into question the violence numbers that are being reported by the Administration, when it touts progress.single russian women

[Criminal Defense Attorney NYC]

hope things get better over there for the sake of the people..innocence people.
Criminal Defense Attorney NYC

[Portland Paper Shredding]

You may have not intended to do so, but I think you have managed to express the state of mind that a lot of people are in. The sense of wanting to help, but not knowing how or where, is something a lot of us are going through.

[custom envelopes]

Custom envelope printing services are an often overlooked, but very effective marketing tool for any business. Be sure to choose an envelope printer who is capable of full color custom envelopes for best results.

[khach san sai gon]

gonna take a trip to vietnam for relaxing after these. We have good accommodation for all you in safe and sound space. We need peace and happiness.

[free russian brides]

You have done the big and useful work. Very much the helpful information. Thanks

[VCP-410 Testking]

I am happy to find so many useful information here in the post, we need develop more strategies in this regard, thanks for sharing.

[oyunlar]

gonna take a trip to vietnam for relaxing after these. We have good accommodation for all you in safe and sound space. We need peace and happiness.tütüne son
orjin krem

[Medieval Weapons]

Thanks a lot for that a fantastically amazing post. such a very fine post.

[temporary tattoo]

It definitely stretches the limits with the mind when you go through very good info and make an effort to interpret it properly.

[cheap auto insurance in california]

Every time I go to your blog I regularly learn something totally new. Your writing inspires my sense of creative imagination. Continue the nice work.

[cheap auto insurance in california]

This is some excellent stuff plus I'm thankful that you spent the time to post it. I love how you described this. The majority of people or blogs which I have gone to appear to leave out vital tips however, you hit on all the great fine details. Congratulations are in order!

[Grettaobm653]

Welcome to Boat Club. The first rule of Boat Club is: you do not talk about Boat Club. The second rule of Boat Club is: you DO NOT talk about Boat Club! Third rule of Boat Club: if someone yells "stop!", goes limp, or taps out, the listening is over. Fourth rule: only two guys to a Boat Club . Fifth rule: one song at a time, fellas. Sixth rule: the Boat is followed by Club. No shirt, no shoes, no dislikes. Seventh rule: Boat Club will go on as long as they have to.

[Hannahcmj982]

Welcome to Boat Club. The first rule of Boat Club is: you do not talk about Boat Club. The second rule of Boat Club is: you DO NOT talk about Boat Club! Third rule of Boat Club: if someone yells "stop!", goes limp, or taps out, the listening is over. Fourth rule: only two guys to a Boat Club . Fifth rule: one song at a time, fellas. Sixth rule: the Boat is followed by Club. No shirt, no shoes, no dislikes. Seventh rule: Boat Club will go on as long as they have to.

[Hannahcmj982]

from teh India Video to this one , boy you sure love Drama is it the Hiatian aids in you ? lol it takes one haitian to mess you up 4 life LMAO.

[wholesale imitation jewelry]

In 1945, when Chairman Mao went to negotiate with Chiang Kai-shek in Chongqing, Guo Moruo found that Chinaman Mao had no watch, so he sent his Omega replica watches to him. Chairman Mao cherished the watch for a lifetime. A millionaire who owns Chelsea football club had eyes only for Montblanc watches. He collected many priceless Montblanc watches.The Montblanc watches which valued by these famous persons have some feathers in common: they have high quality. Watch is the only adornment for lots of men, then, to some degree, the quality and stylish of watch stand for the style of men.

[pioneer 1020]

This is an amazing post.Thanks for explaining the graph because it was difficult to understand at first. But thanks for the information.

[Testking 70-642]

Democracy is system in which vote is counted nor weighted.Testking 640-822

[Pembe Maske]

Brilliant blog. I found your post very interesting, I think is a brilliant writer. Revivaly Pembe Maske I added your blog to my favorites and maskewill return in the future.

parabenPembe Maske kullanımıs por mais esse Revivaly Pembe Maske Set post

[buy facebook likes]

Recently i started a website and purchased about 5,000 Twitter followers from fanbullet.com for our Twitter page. The results were amazing. This makes a big profit for my website and my business starts growing very rapidly.

[sauna esofman]

I graphed the levels of sectarian violence from these various reports and found some confusing trends. The abnormalities have been labeled A, B and C. (There is no difference between the November report and the March report and thus they overlap).

[forum watches]

Thanks for all of the hard work on this web site. I admit, I have not been on this website in a long time, however it was joy to find it again. It is such an important topic and ignored by so many, even professionals! I do enjoy writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are lost simply just trying to figure out how to begin.

[zetaclear reviews]

Thanks for the educational post. I had been looking for something related and found your web site in the process.. I will definitely be back for more.

[Cheap fitted hats]

Took me awhile to read all the comments

[Runescape Gold]

RS Gold have grown to be an authentic worry reducer nowadays.

Strain not just reaches older people but getting individuals today on a daily basiss. The stress inside

workspaces, anxiety regarding study is usually finest every person in a constant technique. People Buy RS Gold leisure following a lacklustre timetable

towards the end throughout. For the reason that of plus net exactly why the net games arrived for you to

you. When getting some time weather condition in office or even in dwelling people today third

determining to perform Tera Gold with computer or any other

platforms.

The reason at the rear of nice regarding Rift Gold is definitely its

assortment ranges and virtually any stand being compatible. The wonderful design top quality, easy

handling, web browser compatibility a few characteristics that produces these kinds of activities additional

fascinating.

The particular Runescape Gold also have several gains

within our true to life. It contributes greatly to enhance the particular mental security along with focus.

Including a under no circumstances countless energy for accomplish or convert a little something develops

on intellect. This hard work occasionally observed in real life battles also.

Some form of RS Gold titles just like auto racing online

games, Buying WOW Gold, snake

game titles utilizing their appealing characteristics supplies a total several setting using a entire travelling

bag with enjoyment. Converting each of our boring chosen lifestyle for an interesting 1 from time to time

other highlights similar to panoramas actually generates an effect.
Usually there are some time management skills game titles consists of collecting do the job and also
Buy WOW Items and get diverse variety

of trouble. Like video games are perfect method of Buy

Runescape Gold and provide some sort of tricky employment.

[Joomla Programmers for Hire]

I was really impressed by reading your article. The information really helped me a lot to gain more knowledge. I was not aware of this topic. This article would help others also to gain more knowledge on it. Thank you sharing your wonderful information.

[escort bayan]

I like to discuss with my friends about where to buy cheap lastchaos gold and the equipment I need.

[Moncler]

Thanks for sharing. A real lot of useful info here!

[Blu Cigs Coupon Code]

Great info thanks for sharing.

[belstaff trialmaster]

Have a family of three live in the mountains. One day, the daughter wants to go out to play, women way: "don't go outside, bear!!!!!" Daughter not letter, women and men say: "you out to dress up as the bear!!!!!"
The man immediately set had run on to the forest, and then came a real bear, frighten of men ran back to the house, blocked the door.
The girl looked at her door, and look at the father, little bear dressed as a track: "ha ha, you are afraid of the wife?!"

[custom essays writing]

I completely agree with you. I have no point to raise in against of what you have said I think you explain the whole situation very well

[team bonding ideas]

Fantastic analysis. I am in complete agreement with you on this matter. You make very logical sense and present the argument intelligently.

[fashion icons]

How does fashion take front stage these days. I think there will be more emphasis on the design aspects of fashion industry in days to come.

[RMT]

great job!, good to read and agree with your words.thanks for great sharing with us,i will tell more of my friends about it .Very good article it was helped me to check once again.

[wowgold]

great job!, good to read and agree with your words.thanks for great sharing with us,i will tell more of my friends about it .Very good article it was helped me to check once again.

[3ds マジコン]

I learn a lot with your words.. thank for the post.

[monster energy hats]

Really impressed! Everything is very, very clear, open is a description of the problem. It contains the information.

[baseball caps]

Hi. I wanted to drop you a quick note to express my thanks. I’ve been following your blog for a month or so and have picked up a ton of good information as well as enjoyed the way you’ve structured your site.

[List of article directories]

Hi, The topic that you have discussed in the post is really amazing, I think now I have a strong hold over the topic after going through the post. I will surely come back for more information.

[Cheap custom research paper]

Your articles on democracy are really good.Affordable research paper

[Angelina Jolie]

Somehow the reclassification that occurred between the March and June 2007 reports caused the violence numbers in April and May of 2006 to drop dramatically. This was in the months following the Sammara bombings in February 2006 when sectarian violence was escalating.

[Online]

The author, a blog very good!
I on your blog have learned a lot of new, and all articles are very interesting and attractive!
Has added your blog in bookmarks, I hope to see still interesting articles.
Thanks you for a blog!
(Excuse for my English, I badly know it, but to understand the core I can!)