Democracy Arsenal

« Pentagon Strategy Review – Why It Matters | Main | Pruning the Pentagon »

January 05, 2012

When are Two Wars Not Two Wars?
Posted by Heather Hurlburt

As we wait for the Pentagon strategy review announcement this morning, the first attempt to use it for political advantage has broken out over efforts to move officially away from the "two-war strategy" -- the idea that the US military must be prepared to fight and win two regional conflicts -- ie Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea -- at the same time.

It turns out that this is one of those bedrock doctrines that is much more bedrock for politicians than for military planners.  Flag officers will quietly tell you that it hasn't been true, or truly doctrine, for a long time -- and they're out saying publicly that it clearly failed in Iraq/Afghanistan in the last decade.

What do experts say?

Winslow Wheeler, who worked 31 years on defense in the Senate, including as the first and last staffer to work simultaneously for a GOP and Democrat:

If it were a strategy, it doesn't describe any strategy or capability
we've had for decades. The construct was for two "Major Regional Conflicts"
in the 1990s. These meant conflicts like Korea and Desert Storm, which in
turn meant force deployments of half a million or so. Neither Iraq
(2003-2011) nor Afghanistan quality as "major" in that regard; both were
much smaller AND they totally crapped out our forces as regards both
manpower and equipment. In other words, we were not able to even support
two minor conflicts, let alone major ones.

We had an inadequate force for two opponents that lacked an air force, an
air defense, a navy, or any coherent ground forces. People who declare
coming off the two MRC "strategy" as unraveling our defenses (eg. Dov Zakheim) are dilettantes.

Time's Mark Thompson calls the strategy "Mythical Routine Canards" and notes:

The only problem is that the two-war construct has been shot through with enough caveats and loopholes to render it worthless. Formally doing away with it, consequently, is just as vaporous.

Going back to World War II, when the nation had 12 million in uniform, the U.S. and its allies couldn’t beat the Japanese in the Pacific until they had defeated the Germans in Europe. Flash forward 60 years: the U.S. and its allies couldn’t prevail in Afghanistan – assuming they ever will – once President George W. Bush had decided to invade Iraq. “It is simply a matter of resources, of capacity,” Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress in late 2007. “In Afghanistan, we do what we can. In Iraq, we do what we must.” That, in a nutshell, is a definition of a nation lacking the ability to wage and win two wars at once. It not only lacked it during World War II, but it also was MIA less than five years ago.

Charles Knight of the Project on Defense Alternatives:

It is misleading to discuss the two war construct as if it were
strategic doctrine. The U.S. did not simultaneously undertake the
intense fighting phases of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. Its
military problems in those conflicts are associated with subsequent
commitments to counterinsurgency and nation building. As with World
War II, the long-standing American practice is for sequential focused
action in different theaters. What has been called a strategy of
“win, hold, win” is simply being sensible and not being carried away
with a false sense of power that the U.S. can do everything,
everywhere at once.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451c04d69e20162ff0f58c1970d

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference When are Two Wars Not Two Wars?:

Comments

These so-called robber when busy season picked up the hoe is a farmer, when slack season shoulder pole is a robber, these do not haveugg boots sale any armed robbers to raid homes and plunder houses, only dare to get some siugg boots clearancemple trap to rob some passing travelers, but never hurt.

I think that while the United States Government will not launch Obama on Iran and North Korea,inflatable Syria, the war. Because Obama to win the next U.S. presidential election world.

mean I just read through the entire article of yours and it was quite good but since I'm more of a visual learner,I found that to be more helpful.

I’d just like to say thank you for writing this straight forward tutorial. This is the first tutorial that I have came across that makes perfect sense and allowed me to get started!

A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.

The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys play Kyle Orton Authentic Jerseys Sunday night in a winner take all game. The Giants are the home Andy Dalton Authentic Jerseys team. The victor wins the NFC West and Cam Newton Authentic Jerseys the #4 seed.
The wildcards are the Detroit Lions and Shannon Sharpe Authentic Jerseys the Atlanta Falcons. They have both clinched. Right now the Lions are the #5 Champ Bailey Authentic Jerseys seed and the Falcons the #6 seed, but if the Lions lose Matt Ryan Authentic Jerseys and the Falcons win, both teams would be 10-6. The Falcons would have the tie-breaker and be the #5 seed Roddy White Authentic Jerseys with Detroit #6. Most people would think that the difference between being 5 and 6 Tim Tebow Authentic Jerseys is irrelevant, but this year it matters. The 6 seed would be at either the Saints or 49ers, and if somehow the 6 won, Brian Dawkins Authentic Jerseys then at #1 Green Bay. Yet the 5 would start at the 4, either Dallas or the Giants. That is a much easier Michael Turner Authentic Jerseys game. Then the 5 would get to avoid Green Bay for as long as possible. The Lions are at Green Bay, which Tony Gonzalez Authentic Jerseys has nothing to play for. Atlanta hosts Tampa Bay, which has lost 9 straight at 4-11.

A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.ser.com/ ''Escribe tu comentario"

A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.

There is also a long way and then end the night there and then the black end.

Welcome to our Belstaff Leather Online Store Belstaff Outlets Store provides Belstaff leather and Belstaff Bags at low price,buy 2012 Belstaff Sale more 65%-75% off,enjoy shopping now!

Install the filters for air compressors have certain necessity. The compressed air is often as a kind of energy and power to use. This is because the compressed air is safety and circulation flexible. It also can obtain simple. But, in order to reduce the operating cost to improve work efficiency, it is necessary to purify the compressed air. By remoing compressed air, water vapor, garbage, oil mist, waste gas such harmful substances, it can enhance the energy utilization. The so-called harmful material is refers to the use of oil and sheet metal, carbon, teflon piece, piping of rust, etc. Compressed air with these material can cause paralysis system, thus affecting the normal production process.
In this , the problem of compressing water in air is especially prominent. When the air temperature 11 ° C per rise, the ability of water vapor in the air to keep doubling, the air in the compression process reduced volume, and significantly increased temperature. The compressed air temperature changes a lot in the course of transmission and the compressed air water problem is outstanding, so the ability to get off water is a standard to measure the water separator's performance. I give you an advice to click in this china water separator factory now. http://www.waxfilter.com/

The oil water filter's role: when the compressed air, contains a lot of oil and water solid impurities get into the separator and spin down along the wall, it will produce the centrifugal resulting . Oil and water vapor flow separate from the wall and to the separator's bottom, then to the filter fine filtering.
Because the filter elements use thick, thin, ultra thin fiber filter material to become chromatography fold, it has a high efficiency of filtering and small resistance. When the gas through the filter, as the filter preventing, inertia and molecular collisions between the van der Waals force, electrostatic attraction and vacuum suction, it is firmly in the adhesion of the filter material fiber, and increase gradually to become droplet then drip into the separator the bottom by gravity. Finally, it educes by the drain valve.
The fuel water separator general will not have any trouble unless in winter the water, separated from it, is frozen. It can cause powering gas road congestion, influence system dynamic of transmission, reduce the braking brake's force and cause braking shortage when the oil water separator leak. Why not search this website for china air oil separator for sale and china fuel water separator. http://www.waxfilter.com/

veRY NICE!

Call no man happy till he dies, he is at best but fortunate.

For in all adversity of fortune the worst sort of misery is to have been happy.ds

Thanks you for your support, all the information is just what i need.

But has the last word been said ? Is all hope to be lost ? Is the defeat final No !

I have met some really neat people through the comments, I certainly want to encourage more me to comment. Thanks for the tips!

A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure until he begins to blame somebody else.

Whoa, awesome read. I just now found your site and am already a fan.

Hi! Thanks for the great information you have provided! You have touched on crucuial points! i bookmarked it and will be back to check it out some more later.


It's the Year of the Dragon, considered the luckiest year in the Chinese zodiac, and it should be a great year for entrepreneurs and small business owners,
according to what's predicted to affect you and your small business in the coming year

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear on this weblog until the author has approved them.

This weblog only allows comments from registered users. To comment, please Sign In.

Subscribe
Sign-up to receive a weekly digest of the latest posts from Democracy Arsenal.
Email: 
Powered by TypePad

Disclaimer

The opinions voiced on Democracy Arsenal are those of the individual authors and do not represent the views of any other organization or institution with which any author may be affiliated.
Read Terms of Use