Chinese Strategy Still Up for Grabs Posted by Jacob Stokes

As some search for a new rationale for increased defense spending, China has all but supplanted terrorism and rogue states as the favorite threat to cite. Princeton professor Aaron Friedberg’s tome “A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia” is on track to become the bible for those who argue that the U.S. must engage in a large-scale, immediate and continuous military build-up to curb China’s rise. 

In response to that growing narrative, Michael Swaine of the Carnegie Endowment has written a quick and elegant response arguing for a more nuanced view that takes into account the realities of Chinese politics and strategy, the imperatives of alliances in Asia and U.S. economic weakness. Anyone who’s tempted by Friedberg’s argument and its correlatives should read Swaine’s piece, several core paragraphs of which are below:

China’s strategic mindset is quintessentially defensive, largely reactive, and focused first and foremost on deterring Taiwan’s independence and defending the Chinese mainland, not on establishing itself as Asia’s next hegemon. Although it is not inconceivable that China might adopt more ambitious, far-flung military objectives in the future—perhaps including an attempt to become the preeminent Asian military power—such goals remain ill-defined, undetermined and subject to much debate in Beijing. This suggests that China’s future strategic orientation is susceptible to outside influence, not fixed in stone… 

Instead of more tough talk and increased defense spending, the United States and its allies in Asia need to grasp the malleable nature of China’s strategic intentions and shape a “mixed” regional approach focused more on creating incentives to cooperate than on neutralizing every possible Chinese military capability of concern to U.S. defense analysts. In particular, there is a need for a more far-reaching U.S.-China strategic dialogue that focuses on long-term interests and intentions and on what steps each country could take to avert growing security competition. 

This is not pie-in-the-sky utopian thinking. It is rooted in the realities of America’s changing economic position in the world, China’s own internal problems and debates, and Asia’s increasing openness to cooperative multilateral security approaches. Forward-thinking leaders will recognize the growing need for our two countries—and the region—to create opportunities for collaboration on global challenges rather than engaging in destabilizing military competition.

As Swaine suggests, it’s not that China poses no threat. But Chinese strategy is still very much in flux, and just as in the U.S., Chinese foreign policy is made by a mixture of diverse and changing interest groups. Those groups will respond, at least in part, to our actions. So a mixed strategy that checks Chinese overreach while also leaving room for positive Chinese actions on the world stage makes the most sense.

Photo: People's Daily

Comments

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A good piece and a strategy I would endorse. One concern I would raise, however, is the difficulty of engaging the Chinese military so as to have a profitable exchange of ideas that could influence the evolving Chinese strategic doctrine. They are very insular and frequently break off military to military ties with the U.S. How do we counter this difficulty?

[Zhuubaajie]

The Chinese military is commanded by the President, and does not have a strategic doctrine other that what was developed by the Politburo. The Chicoms have always stated what they want and what they expected of others, and even what would happen if the nation's core interest is infringed upon. What is insular about that? You may not like what you are hearing, but to simply ignore what is expressly stated is form of denial.

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I think the US must not always approach China with a tough act. Sure, it out to be tough love since there are still violations China has to answer for. But China can still be the US greatest ally in Asia, considering the chances the the former has been going through lately. Far from being democratic of course and still a long ways to go, but it must leave room for China to develop trust rather than animosity.

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The links on Friedberg and Swaine have their merits. China will always be a threat to US with the likes of Taiwan and N.Korea among others still attached to it in some way.

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