After the Fall, Continued Posted by Jacob Stokes

Last week I wrote about the need to plan for post-Qaddafi Libya. Now the country is in the thick of things. Stabilization must begin even as Qaddafi remains in a bunker somewhere, mourning his lost Condoleezza Rice photo album. The TNC, as well as other actors and the international community, will have to make choices quickly and with imperfect information. To inform that process, Brian Fishman of the New America Foundation has a piece out on what needs to be done to prevent the sorts of insurgencies we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He begins by noting that while Qaddafi didn’t have a lot of friends, some groups did benefit from his rule—and thus could form the basis of an insurgency. Fishman writes: “The triumph of Libya's rebels over Qaddafi loyalists in Tripoli and elsewhere represents a genuine victory by the Libyan people over a corrupt ruling elite. But the narrowness of Qaddafi's power base should not obscure the fact that there are losers in this revolution -- enough of them to plunge Libya into a protracted insurgency if the postwar period isn't handled properly.” Fishman offers five pieces of advice for preventing an insurgency:

1. Do not put Western boots on the ground.

2. Put people to work, especially soldiers and technical experts.

3. Treat the defeated leadership with respect.

4. Don’t forget about the police.

5. Buy back the guns.

He sums them up: “The key is to identify social and political groups with real power and allow them to negotiate Libya's future in a structured manner rather than impose a vision from abroad or allow narrow domestic factions to monopolize government authority.”

Building on many of the same themes, RAND’s James Dobbins and Fred Wehrey suggest:

Security should be the first priority. The United States' experience in Iraq shows that a critical window exists for the rebel leadership to establish its legitimacy, win the trust of the Libyan people, and prevent the onset of looting, vendettas, and warlordism. Societies emerging from conflict invariably have too many soldiers and too few police. The international community must help Libya quickly demobilize the combatants on both sides of the conflict and build a competent police force. Much will also hinge on the swift but magnanimous application of justice, which should emphasize reconciliation rather than retribution…

Libya's limited size, favorable location, relative wealth, and homogeneous population should help ease a transition to peace and democracy, but absence of both government institutions and an established civil society suggest that the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.

To use the newest (very true) cliché in international affairs, the hardest work is yet to come in Libya. These outlines seem like a good place to start.

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