"China as Behemoth" Has a Military Edge Posted by Jacob Stokes

Dan Drezner has a good roundup pushing back on Forbes magazine’s random and stupid article contending that Chinese President Hu Jintao is the most powerful man in the world. (Harry Reid also made a similar mistake, calling Hu a “dictator”.) Drezner tags the “Hu as powerful dictator” line as part of bigger “China as rising hegemon” meme. I’m not sure I agree with Drezner’s argument that the scope of Hu’s power is the argument that those who want to rebut the “China as hegemon” crowd need to target.

It seems to me the more pernicious line is that China’s military is out of control. That argument contends that no matter how peaceful China’s civilian leaders seem, the military’s continual modernization and technological progress shows China’s desire to challenge American power the world over (forget the fact that the American military is still vastly superior and no one should be surprised by a rising country modernizing its military). And even if China's civilian leaders wanted to stop them, they couldn't. FPI has trumpeted this line, as does Max Boot.

That line is convenient because it hedges (and everyone knows China fear-mongerers love hedging!) against any softening of the line coming from the civilian leadership. If the line softens – and I’m not saying it will necessarily, but it could -- it’s harder to trump up China as an enemy and make the case for increased defense spending to ensure the security of American allies in the Far East.

Finally, it has the imprimatur of being intellectually aware, as there’s been widespread debate and analysis about the free-for-all going on in Beijing when it comes to conduct of Chinese foreign policy. Of course, by insisting that China’s rise cannot possibly be peaceful and therefore American power should be used to subvert its rise in all forms, peaceful or not, American conservatives are empowering the hardliners in Beijing – self-fulfilling their prophecy.

As for whether China’s military is actually going rogue, Drezner picks the right bit out of Drew Thompson’s FP piece on the subject:

Before jumping to conclusions, however, let's remember that China's national security decision-making process is opaque, and so this worrisome disconnect -- who knew what when -- is difficult to ascertain with certainty. It is highly improbable that Hu was unaware of the development of this major military advancement. His role as chairman of the Central Military Commission ensures that he is well briefed about major programs, and he doubtlessly approves their large budgets. What is not known is how much oversight and control the central government leadership in Beijing had over the PLA's decision-making process that lead to highly visible tests at the Chengdu air base just as Gates was visiting China.

In other words, there’s a lot of evidence that China’s military exercising its institutional prerogatives within a system that is ultimately subject to civilian control. In other words, it’s much like America’s.

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I get the pushback about overstating the velocity, intentions and consequence of China's rise. I also get the criticism that Hu isn't a dictator the way, say, Castro was in his prime. But Hu is the highest official in a government that should be properly described as a dictatorship, right?

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The Washington pundits may fret over China'a military modernization, but the Chinese military appears to be very disorganized on its plans for the future. For instance the Chinese air force has multiple new fighters in its inventory which is probably impossisble to mantain due having to acquire multiple spare parts and train maintenance personnel on every new airplane. Also in order to have an effective army the Chinese probably need to cut back the number of active duty soldiers, but in order to do this the army would have to relinquish its role as a internal police force in the Western provinces of China. Achieving that goal would require granting some local autonomy to the provinces that the Chinese Communist Party would be unlikely to allow in the near future.

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