Stephen Walt Drags Me Back In - More on ASG Posted by Michael Cohen

So at some point I'd like to stop writing about the Afghanistan Study Group and actually talk a bit more about the US war in Afghanistan, but Stephen Walt has dragged me back in. 

I should say at the outset that I am generally a big fan of Steve Walt and his writings (with one notable exception) - and in general I think US foreign policy would be on a better track if more people listened to his prescriptions for it. That's why I am particularly disappointed by his critique of my critique of the ASG report. I quote in full below:

Michael Cohen at democracyarsenal.org offers a more sympathetic critique, and says he's mostly disappointed that the Study Group didn't offer more detailed, actionable recommendations. He also chides us for making arguments that he (and others) were making a year ago. He's correct that we didn't lay out detailed "action plans" for implementing our various recommendations, but that's also largely beside the point. Until the national leadership is convinced that the present course is a non-starter, there is little point in offering detailed action plans for implementing a different course. The Group also sought to produce a report that key staffers and politicians would actually read, unlike some of the doorstop reports that think tanks often offer. And at least one reader welcomed this feature. Cohen is also correct that the Group was neither alone nor the first to identify the problems with current U.S. strategy, but so what? The question is whether one can get the relevant decision makers to finally pay attention.

I'm not sure if this was Walt's intention, but this analysis makes it sound like I am just bitter that more people weren't listening to me last summer when I was writing the Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch. I dare anyone to read what I wrote here and draw Walt's 'sour grapes' conclusion. 

Indeed, my argument was that many of the report's conclusion about how Afghanistan is tangential to US interests, that the war is not in the national interest and that it inflates the threat of al Qaeda would have been helpful arguments a year ago. Today, when much of the elite policy community is increasingly concluding that the war is a mistake and that the current strategy is not working, this analysis will, in my view, have far less of an impact. 

The train has left the station on Afghanistan; we've sent 30,000 more troops to the country and entangled the US military more deeply in the politics of the country's most fractious and dangerous region - the Pashtun-dominated South and East. Not to mention involved ourselves more directly in the running of the national government. The question is much less one of grand strategy; and much more about the nitty-gritty of what de-escalation might look like.

Walt argues "Until the national leadership is convinced that the present course is a non-starter, there is little point in offering detailed action plans for implementing a different course." I'm really taken aback by this argument - and I'm sort of shocked that he is making this argument. Offering detailed action plans not only speaks to the seriousness of one's critique but quite obviously offers policymakers another path to protecting US interests. 

Why would the Obama Administration embrace a plan that tells them all the reasons they're making a strategic error in fighting a war in Afghanistan but offers them unrealistic and unactionable ideas about what they should do differently? If the goal of the ASG is to "get the relevant decision makers to finally pay attention" I'm not that 'starting a debate' does much to accomplish that task (and again that debate has already started).

More than ever, what is needed now are well-thought out and actionable alternatives that disentangle the US from this conflict in a way that protects our interests and ensures that Afghanistan does not see a repeat of the deadly civil war of the mid-1990s. And this is the nature of my concern with the ASG report; it doesn't deal seriously with that issue and more important, with the implications of the strategy it is recommending. 

For example, I've been an advocate of reducing the US military footprint in the south and east of Afghanistan - a recommendation that the report endorses. But there is a whole set of consequences to ceding the South; and here is where the input of Afghan and regional experts might have been helpful. 

What would a retreat from the South and East look like? Would we abandon Helmand and some of the eastern provinces along the Durand Line but try to hold on to Kandahar? If we left Kandahar too, how exactly would be protect Kabul from a Taliban takeover - via drones and special forces? Considering that the ASG report suggests a dramatic drawdown of US troops that seems to be the approach - plus relying on an Afghan National Army that is not yet up to speed. 

And how would the Karzai government respond to such a move - considering how seriously Afghans take the concept of Afghanistan as a nation one would imagine not well. What about Pakistan? Would ceding the South destabilize Pakistan and embolden Pashtun radicals across the border? What effect would it have on the Taliban - would it pacify them as the report suggests or embolden? I'm not sure the answer to these questions - and I am wrestling with them myself - but as near I can tell ASG didn't really engage with them much at all.

Reducing the footprint in the South and East could take a number of forms - seeking out local cease fires with the Taliban; adopting a more defensive posture in the region and eschewing a military offensive; perhaps confidence building measures like stopping Special Operations killings of mid-level Taliban commanders; or most important of all twinning our military retreat with a larger political outreach to the Taliban. 

I think this report would have been more helpful if it engaged with these issues. At the very least it would have spoken to the rigor and seriousness of their effort. 

It goes without saying that this is hard stuff; are options in Afghanistan are terrible, bad and least worst. There is no silver bullet solution. We're going to have to make some hard choices about what to do in Afghanistan and how to protect US interests and as a result a lot of people are going to hurt - either US troops, Afghan civilians or both.

Asking the war's opponents (myself included) to engage with these issues seems not only appropriate, it seems damn essential. The fact that the ASG signatories failed to do so in a rigorous manner is the root of my concerns with this effort. But as I noted a few days ago; I hope they take the critiques offered by me and others to heart - and spend a bit more time thinking through the implications of the strategies and tactics they are recommending. Their passion for this issue is more needed than ever.

 

 

On one other note; it was pointed out to me that in a report featuring 46 prominent signatories, there are only four women on this list. Now I have no idea if ASG reached out to prominent female national security experts, but this is a truly embarrassing oversight. I would imagine that Christine Fair, Martine van Bijlert, Heather Hurlburt, Audrey Cronin, Erin Simpson, Lorelei Kelly, Joanna Nathan, Erica Gaston, Norine McDonald, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Sarah Sewall and Caroline Wadhams (to name a few and apologies to those I am forgetting) might have been able to offer some valuable insights to the proceedings. Hopefully as the group goes forward with their work they will reach out to some of these individuals.

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The major problems I have with the ASG Report concern the immediate importance of negotiations, the need to end combat, the significance of the India v. Pakistan factor and the futility of nation-building.

ASG: In contrast to President Karzai’s recent and narrowly conceived “peace jirga,” political outreach should include leaders selected by key tribal and village leaders in all of Afghanistan’s ethnic and regional divisions, including rural Pashtuns.

Rather: Instead what is needed is a reinforcement of Karzai's efforts. Sure he's not perfect, but General Petraeus says he can work with him. "President Karzai has been very clear about the red lines for reconciliation, accept the constitution, lay down their weapons, cut their ties with al Qaeda and essentially become productive or at least participating members of society in that regard. And if those redlines are met, I don't see why you would not support reconciliation." President Karzai, seeking reconciliation, hosted a June 2010 peace conference. This has apparently been recognized recently by President Obama and General Petraeus, even to the possible extent of direct US/Taliban negotiations. Unlike in Iraq, the US in Afghanistan can deal with a president who genuinely wants reconciliation, and that's what should happen, not some ephemeral village-based process.

ASG: Scale Back and Eventually Suspend Combat Operations in the South and Reduce the U.S. Military Footprint. Simultaneous to these efforts at achieving a new, more stable political equilibrium in the country, the U.S. should downsize and eventually discontinue combat operations in southern Afghanistan.

Rather: Don't eventually suspend combat operation, but suspend them immediately because the US/NATO effort should go into negotiations which can't be effective while a war is going on. The US is assassinating key Taliban leaders who can be effective in any solution. When they are killed and replaced by younger, more aggressive and less wise leaders the chance of a proper settlement is lessened. Speaking of NATO, this conflict is even less popular in Europe and Canada than it is in the US.

ASG: Keep the Focus on Al Qaeda and Domestic Security.

Rather: There are few AQ in Afghanistan. Place an increased focus on negotiations, not "security" which is really insecurity.
ISLAMABAD, Sep 15, 2010 - The process of bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table is gaining momentum, with the United States and its allies escalating their efforts to get America out of the Afghan quagmire. In principle, the Taliban have agreed to clearly state their position on several issues so that formal talks with Washington will be internationally acceptable. In particular, the Taliban will explain their stance on al-Qaeda.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LI15Df02.html

ASG: Engage Global and Regional Stakeholders. . .The United States should also use its influence to reduce tensions among the various regional actors—and especially India and Pakistan—in order to decrease their tendency to see Afghanistan as an arena for conflict or to view the Taliban or other non-state groups as long-term strategic assets.

Rather: Even more emphasis is needed on the Pakistan/India side of this conflict. The increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan especially emphasizes the importance of negotiations. Since India and Pakistan are arch enemies, the Indian presence in Afghanistan fuels Pakistan's support for the Taliban -- the resistance that is killing US troops. Since the US has partnered with Pakistan this situation is unacceptable. It can't be solved by more combat but by intensive negotiations which would ensure that Pakistan's western flank doesn't become an India ally.

ASG: Efforts at reconciliation should be coupled with a broad internationally-led effort to promote economic development.

Rather: Nation-building has not worked in Afghanistan -- what is needed is not more of the same but a halt in combat activities and peace through negotiations. Tom Engelhardt: "In the near-decade since Kabul fell in November 2001, a sizable majority of Afghans have continued to live in poverty and privation. Measuring such misery may be impossible, but the United Nations has tried to find a comprehensive way to do so nonetheless. Using a Human Poverty Index which 'focuses on the proportion of people below certain threshold[s] in regard to a long and healthy life, having access to education, and a decent standard of living,' the U.N. found that, comparatively speaking, it doesn't get worse than life in Afghanistan. The nation ranks dead last in its listing, number 135 out of 135 countries. This is what 'success' means today in Afghanistan."

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And how would the Karzai government respond to such a move - considering how seriously Afghans take the concept of Afghanistan as a nation one would imagine not well. What about Pakistan? Would ceding the South destabilize Pakistan and embolden Pashtun radicals across the border? What effect would it have on the Taliban - would it pacify them as the report suggests or embolden? I'm not sure the answer to these questions - and I am wrestling with them myself - but as near I can tell ASG didn't really engage with them much at all.
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