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February 03, 2010

Helmand, Oh Helmand
Posted by Michael Cohen

Today in the LA Times we have an example of finer moments in journalistic gullibility. Consider this story on the impending Marine offensive into Marja, a key population center in Helmand Province (why the US military is going out of its way to preview its tactical plans for the Taliban is for a whole other conversation).

The U.S. Marines and Afghan army plan a massive assault on Taliban fighters in Marja, the last community under Taliban control in a sprawling, lawless region once dominated by the insurgency, a top Marine said Wednesday.

"We are going to gain control," Col. George "Slam" Amland told reporters. "We are going to alter the ecosystem considerably."

Ok, but then I read this:

"This is a big leap for the government of Afghanistan," he said.

Marine and NATO leaders want Helmand province to be a showpiece of the "clear, hold, build and transition" counterinsurgency strategy, in which Taliban fighters are forced out of a region and then a "civilian surge" begins to rebuild war-ravaged communities and bolster confidence of Afghan villagers in their provincial and national governments.

While the military part of the operation is the most dramatic, the actions of U.S. civilian employees, including from the U.S. Agency for International Development and Agriculture Department, will be even more significant, he said. The Afghan government is ready to install local officials to begin reopening schools and clinics and polling residents about what they want their government to do.

The goal, Amland said, is to spread to Marja the "kinds of success" seen in other communities once the Taliban were ousted. In the Nawa district of the province, for example, the marketplace reopened, irrigation canal clearing projects started, and a local community council was established once the Taliban fled.

By ousting Taliban from control of Marja, U.S. , NATO and Afghan officials hope to persuade rank-and-file, non-jihadist fighters -- what Amland called "lunch-bucket $5 a-day Taliban" -- to quit fighting and decide to see if the Afghan government can provide a better life for its citizens.

In the interim, the U.S. plans a "cash for work" plan to give jobs to the unemployed of Helmand province, including young men who may have joined the Taliban as an economic necessity.

It's almost like reading a DoD press release. Look, I'm quite sure that folks "want" this operation to prove the success of a "clear, hold and build" strategy but then again I want to play starting shortstop for the Boston Red Sox - doesn't mean it's going to happen.

As Josh Foust points out, we've seen 5 previous "surges" into Helmand with little to no success - what reason is there to believe that things have changed now? Is it because every US soldier and officer has memorized FM 3-24? And even if they did, the very idea that the Afghan government is "ready to install local officials to begin reopening schools and clinics" and will do this effectively just seems ludicrous. Last summer, when the Marines last went into Helmand, they were accompanied by what can best be described as trifling support from the Afghan Army - and pretty much no Afghan government support or a US civilian surge. What has changed in the past 6 months for people to believe that this surge will be different?

This is not to mention the fact the Taliban seem to be doing a very effective job at what the New York Times describes as "mixing modern weapons with ancient signaling techniques," and "have developed the habits and tactics to evade capture and to disrupt American and Afghan operations, all while containing risks to their ranks." Of course it also helps when you have that unpatrolled Pakistani border to slip over when need be.

Even if it made strategic sense to try and pacify Helmand - and I continue to believe that it does not - why are we doing this now? Why aren't we waiting until more of the US surge capacity is in country; why don't we wait until the Afghan military is better able to accompany the US on missions like this one?

What is perhaps so frustrating about this fixation with Helmand is that it appears to directly contradict President Obama's guidance to General McChrystal that he shouldn't send troops to places that can't potentially be handed over to the Afghan security services in 18 months. 

Foust thinks this has something to do with opium, which makes sense, but whatever the reason, trying to clear, hold and build in a region that is inhospitable to ISAF and Karzai government - when you have a civilian leadership that has made clear there is a timeline for withdrawal in place -- just makes very little sense.

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