Democracy Arsenal

« Not Sure What Michael Gerson's Point Is | Main | Semi-Idiotic Rifle Laws »

July 29, 2009

Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - The Mismatch Version
Posted by Michael Cohen

I was joking with a friend recently that if I ever wrote a book about US policy in Afghanistan it would be called "Mismatch" and for across the pond we have a good example of why.

Yesterday British Foreign Secretary David Miliband laid out a new (ish) approach for defeating the Taliban - political reconciliation:

Mr. Miliband called for “effective grass-roots initiatives to offer an alternative to fight or flight for the foot soldiers” of the Taliban. “Essentially this means a clear route for former insurgents to return to their villages and go back to farming the land, or a role for some of them within the legitimate Afghan security forces,” Mr. Miliband said. “Military pressure has an important role to play — these people must see the danger of remaining insurgents, but also believe that they will be protected from their former allies if they lay down their arms.”

To achieve that goal, Mr. Miliband said, the American-led coalition fighting the Taliban should work with the Afghan government to separate hard-line Taliban leaders from less ideological commanders.

“For higher-level commanders and their networks, we need to work with the Afghan government to separate the hard-line ideologues, who are essentially irreconcilable and violent and who must be pursued relentlessly, from those who can be drawn into domestic political processes,” Mr. Miliband said.

Now I actually think this is a very smart idea, although as Josh Foust points out, it's not exactly a new policy. Nonetheless, there almost certainly isn't a military solution to Afghanistan's problems and so a focus on political reconciliation - and separating core Taliban from occasional Taliban - is overall a good thing.

But for that process for work don't Afghan Taliban have to be convinced that it is in their interest to engage politically with the Afghan government? After all if they read the words of the President and other Administration officials, they might draw the conclusion that they are winning in Afghanistan and thus have little reason to come to the negotiating table.

The possible fly in the ointment with Miliband's strategy is that it doesn't seem to jibe with what the ISAF and US forces are doing militarily - and with what General McCrystal is saying publicly:

The U.S. and its allies must change their mission to focus on protecting the Afghan people -- even if it means temporarily allowing the Taliban to operate relatively freely in sparsely populated areas, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan said in an interview Saturday.

The general, who did not say whether he would need additional troops, said his strategy is aimed at separating insurgents from noncombatants and increasing confidence in the Afghan government. He acknowledged that U.S. and alliance forces cannot routinely enter some areas.

"Practically speaking, there are areas that are controlled by Taliban forces," he said. Over time, McChrystal said, the command will "reduce" those areas, but the first priority will to be to make sure populated areas are free of insurgent influence.

To achieve political reconciliation you need to apply some sort of pressure on your opponent. The Dayton Peace Accords in Bosnia are perhaps a good example: we were to able to get all sides to the bargaining table but only after the facts on the ground had so dramatically changed that it was in each protagonist's interest to make a deal. And, for what it's worth, it was the use of military force that changed the political equation and made grudging reconciliation possible (well that and a lot of US peacekeepers).

But now we're relying on the good graces of the Taliban to "see the light" and a long-term strategy of placing a buffer (the US military) between the population and the Taliban. This isn't to say that McCrystal's operational strategy is wrong (although regular readers of the blog are well aware I'm not a fan) but if we're going to do it can we at least make sure everyone is on the same page - in other words can we make sure the political leaders are reading off the same page as the military leaders.

Instead, there seems to be a real mismatch between the goals lad out by the British Foreign Secretary and what the US and ISAF is doing on the ground.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451c04d69e201157152cbb4970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - The Mismatch Version:

Comments

Sigh, this is just stupid.

Your basing your critiscism on a phantom named the Unified Taleban, projecting Viet-Cong comman unity onto a group of oppos varying from hilbilly rebels with AKs and lots of combat experience to fanatical ideological zealots. When you take that into account, then Milliband and McCrystals meaning become synergic: While the armed forces through intel will root out the fanatics (who the afghan civilians dont like much either) the repat program will (hopefully) be a good enough incentive to lure the hillbillies (lke the Korengal resistance) into "peace". Your Bosnia example rests on the same fallacy, in Bosnia we had european military formations fighting each other, with internal commandstructures. In Af/Pak we have basically a medieval complex system of interdependent communes to relate to.

tenk u admins. good msj

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

Great comments! You are so nice, man! You never know how much i like'em!

Yes, that's cool. The device is amazing! Waiting for your next one!

If you have PANERAI Watches , I still have my idea to achieve.

Hello
Congress should create an independent blue-ribbon panel or similar body to investigate a host of previously unreviewable activities of the Bush administration, including its detention, interrogation and surveillance programs.
Thnx For sesli sohbet seslisohbet Sesli Chat

Absolutely nothing compares to MCTS Certification
directed at passing the Microsoft exam paper. Logical Microsoft exam prep begins with a knowledgeable Microsoft guide to prepare you for even the easiest MCSA Exam. Our practice Microsoft exam papers direct you straight for the goal and take you past the finish line and succeed in passing the MCSA Exam.

SesLiSohbeT siteleri arasında ekol bir adres SesTonum hemen sohbette başlamak icin SesTonum 'tıklayınız..! SesLiSohbeT Ve SesLichaT adreslerinin gözdesi hemen tıklayarak SesLiSohbeT yapmaya başlaya bilirsiniz..!

SesTonum
SesLichaT
SesLiSohbeT

Instead, there seems to be a real mismatch between the goals lad out by the British Foreign Secretary and what the US and ISAF is doing on the ground.
seslisohbet
seslichat

Are you fighting in Final Fantasy XIV for FFXIV Gil or Final Fantasy XIV Gil?
Can you suffer yourself being called newbie in FFXIV Gil game?
Are you seeking unofficial Buy FFXIV Gil cheats or Final Fantasy XIV guides in order to make Final Fantasy XIV Gil faster?
Can you get millions of Cheap FFXIV Gil in one day?
Even if you know how to farm Buy Final Fantasy XIV Gil you have to prepare enough Final Fantasy XIV Power Leveling first to buy height class Final Fantasy XIV Items, to upgrade your Final Fantasy XIV characters.
Buy aika gold
Then why not Buy FFXIV Gil from us?
In Final Fantasy XIV it's the fastest way FF14 Gil,for you to get rich. We are online 24 hours a day ready and 7 days one week to power up your FFXIV Gil accounts with FFXIV Gil. Here is the best place for the Final Fantasy XIV Online players to buy your Final Fantasy XIV Gil.
We are the professional website in FFXIV GIL sale.FFXIV GIL here,We are professional FFXIV Power Leveling online. We update price every single day to make sure we are the lowest in the market.(we don't compare price with scam sites which uses unbelievable low price to deceive.)
Our slogan:Cheapest price, Fastest delivery, Best service!

Cheap aika gold
In the 2 years we are in this field , AIKA Goldbuilt many business with tens of thousands of customers. They are very satisfied with our service.So if you want to get a log of Cheap FFXIV Gil ,no doubt ,come to our website to buy. Our customer service is ready for you on line now!(GM MMO)

Very nice and wonderful blog that gives so much interesting information Thanks for this blog.

Great links, this will surely help me with making my blog successful! Thank you so much!

I fully like this and this post is the very informative article so I totally impressed to it..

You might not know it but it is inside your

house that you feel most comfortable and safe. Why not utilize your personal

space in achieving the relaxed state that you deserve after a stressful day

at work?

The general, who did not say whether he would need additional troops, said his strategy is aimed at separating insurgents from noncombatants and increasing confidence in the Afghan government.

Hi Congress should create an independent blue-ribbon panel or similar body to investigate a host of previously unreviewable activities of the Bush administration, including its detention, interrogation and surveillance programs.
liseli porno

Post a comment

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In.

Guest Contributors
Founder
Subscribe
Sign-up to receive a weekly digest of the latest posts from Democracy Arsenal.
Email: 
Powered by TypePad

Disclaimer

The opinions voiced on Democracy Arsenal are those of the individual authors and do not represent the views of any other organization or institution with which any author may be affiliated.
Read Terms of Use