Don't Believe the Hype Posted by Patrick Barry

It's probably unavoidable, but the hyping of U.S. - Iran talks has begun.  Just look at the way the Washington Post frames a story that is ostensibly about an announcement of a regional diplomatic summit on Afghanistan:

"U.S. Pushing for High-Level Afghanistan Meeting That Would Include Iran"

The Obama administration is pushing to convene a high-level meeting on Afghanistan this month that could for first time bring together Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and her Iranian counterpart.

Clinton on Thursday announced the push to hold the meeting during a gathering of NATO foreign ministers, saying it would bring together top diplomats of a broad range of countries including NATO members and "key regional and strategic countries." She said she expected Iran would be invited.

When you really think about it, this is actually a pretty unremarkable development.  Iran is right next door to Afghanistan. Why shouldn't they be invited?  In fact, the one thing that would make the summit remarkable would be if the U.S. shut out Iran, something both unrealistic and unwise, but also an unfortunate reality to which we've grown accustomed thanks to the Bush administration.

Still, there is a real danger in over-hyping the significance of this invitation.  First, too much emphasis risks turning a meeting that matters incredibly to the future of Afghanistan into a side event to the main show of a US - Iranian encounter. If all the coverage is about whether an American diplomat coughs near an Iranian, Afghans are not likely to be pleased. That could also send the wrong message to Afghanistan's other neighboring countries, especially Pakistan, which is really a much higher priority. 

Second, while a summit on Afghanistan is definitely one way for the the U.S. to start dealing with the Iranians, Afghanistan really isn't at the core of the two countries mutual antipathy.  You didn't hear the Leader talk about Karzai, NATO or the Taliban in yesterday's rant, and I would have to expect that the US cares much more about Iran's nuclear program and support for Hamas and Hezbollah than they do for the so far modest Iranian involvement in Afghanistan.  Every Iran expert I talk to emphasizes that Iran only responds when engaged on all fronts, and moreover tends to dismiss discrete entreaties as nothing more than one-offs.  To avoid leaving that impression, the U.S. must take pains to depict any discussions as contained within a broader dialogue, based around core interests.

Secretary Clinton seems to recognize this, emphasizing that Iran's interest in Afghanistan is natural, and that cooperation used to be quite routine.  But reading the Post's coverage, it's unclear whether the U.S. will be able to tamp down expectations so easily going forward.

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As for hype, it's really just another's opinion shaped more from who they are and where they are coming from than where you are at.

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