What Iraq Means for Terrorism Posted by Patrick Barry

It's hard to deny that a feeling of listlessness has come over discussions about Iraq - an exhaustion stemming from everything from the reduced violence, to the election, which dulls any sense of immediacy, relevancy, or urgency.  But, as Ilan pointed out today, the wheel still turns - Iraq's future is still unfolding, though it doesn't hold our attention in the way it once did.  One very troubling set of possibilities related to Iraq surrounds the question of what is to become of the thousands of insurgents, especially foreign insurgents, who operated, trained, and fought there during the months when violence was at its apex.  For a sense of what is to come, look no further than Afghanistan:

The Afghan defense minister, Gen. Abdul Rahim Wardak, said terrorists who would have once fought in Iraq have been "diverted" to Afghanistan.

"The success of coalition forces in Iraq and also some other issues in some of the neighboring countries have made it possible that there is a major increase in the foreign fighters," Wardak told a news conference. "There is no doubt that they are (better) equipped than before. They are well trained, more sophisticated, their coordination is much better."

Hundreds, if not thousands, of well trained, well armed extremists capable of coordinating with each other, moving from Iraq to Afghanistan is not good.  But what also makes this development so fascinating and alarming all at once is the ethnic and national composition of the migrating insurgents. Later in the same AP Piece, Commander for Eastern Afghanistan Jeffrey Schloesser shares his assessment:

 

The top U.S. commander in eastern Afghanistan, Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Schloesser, told The Associated Press last month that he is seeing a spike in the number of foreign militants — including Arabs and Chechens — flowing into Afghanistan. He said militant Web sites have been encouraging fighters to go to Afghanistan instead of Iraq.

 

"I can't prove they are coming from Iraq to Afghanistan, but I've seen it on Web sites that that's what they're being told to do," Schloesser said.

Typically, when people talk about Iraq or Afghanistan in the context of terrorism, it's always to warn about the danger posed by a terrost hub located in either country.  But it appears to be equally possibile that the opposite could happen - that the terrorist threat could evolve into something more diffuse.  Certainly, the downward spiral in Afghanistan is in part a result of existing lawlessness, lawlessness which sets up nicely for extremists hoping to operate with impunity.  But if you take away Afghanistan for a second, you still have to wonder - what will happen with all the Yemenis, Saudis, Egyptians, Jordanians even Chechyans, battle hardened by urban warfare in Iraq? Where will they go?  If it's not Afghanistan, it seems plausible that they would go back to their home countries to do who know's what. 

The developments in Afghanistan actually expose two things: First, it confirms a tendency for terrorists and extremists to congregate in areas where there is lawlessness and instability; And second, that following the war in Iraq, the terrorist threat continues to be multinational in composition (perhaps more so), exhibits a tendency and ability to migrate (again, perhaps more so) and maintains a greater capacity for coodination and destuction (this last point is less disputable than the first two) and that these three factors combined are highly troubling, even when you leave Afghanistan aside. What is clear from this is that, even if the best scenarios play out in Iraq, we're going to be dealing with the fallout, long after we've packed up, and gone on our way.

Comments

[Don Bacon]

Let's see if I've got the nomenclature down:
* People fighting foreign invaders in their own country: insurgents
* People fighting foreign invaders in another country: terrorists and extremists
* Foreign invaders: peacekeepers
That's it!
So the US should worry about the people it has radicalized through warfare. They are dangerous.
But what will US military warriors do when they go back to THEIR home country? Should we worry about that also?

[Simmons]

As to where they would go: Somalia? - "areas where there is lawlessness and instability".

It's kind of out of the way though, and not as Arab dominated of course.

[Dan Kervick]

First, it confirms a tendency for terrorists and extremists to congregate in areas where there is lawlessness and instability;

Like London?

maintains a greater capacity for coordination and destruction (this last point is less disputable than the first two)

Really? Where is your evidence for this?

[Don Bacon]

You know, Patrick, you really ought to get out more. These are the survivors of real people that the Pentagon is killing, of real wedding parties that the US is bombing, the relatives of real children that are the victims of "collateral damage", and your remarks which reduce these people to your personal stereotypes are simply unacceptable.

There are other people in the world besides Americans, people with jobs, allergies, ingrown toenails, dental problems, family responsibilities and other such daily concerns. Their daily concerns, however, have been disrupted by American Exceptionalism and US military imperialism. These are people who, like many of us, deeply resent American military imperialism. And for you to reduce them to "extremists" and "terrorists" is simply a sign of your own lack of understanding.

You fear that, after pursuing their dream to kill the Americans that have brought them so much grief, they will "go back to their home countries to do who knows what." How pathetic. How shallow.

Patrick, have you ever been out of the country?

[Jake]

@ Simmons.

Yes, Simmons, Somalia.

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I would say if Iraq does not quickly bring issues of domestic governance and security under control, other underlying issues are likely to emerge and create chaos in the country. Like the never-ending conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, Iraq could evolve into a second hotbed of strife in the Middle East, becoming a permanent trouble spot for the region and the world.

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