More Good News from the Intelligence Community... Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

A new NIE presents more bad news - a bleak picture in Pakistan...

A U.S. official who participated in drafting the top secret National Intelligence Estimate said it portrays the situation in Pakistan as "very bad." Another official called the draft "very bleak," and said it describes Pakistan as being "on the edge."

The first official summarized the estimate's conclusions about the state of Pakistan as: "no money, no energy, no government..."

...The estimate says that the Islamist insurgency based in the Federally Administered Tribal Area bordering Afghanistan, the suspected safe haven of Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants, is intensifying.

However, according to the officials, the draft also finds that the Pakistani military is reluctant to launch an all-out campaign against the Islamists in part because of popular opposition to continuing the cooperation with the United States that began under Pervez Musharraf, the U.S.-backed former president, after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Anti-U.S. and anti-government sentiments have grown recently, stoked by stepped-up cross-border U.S. missile strikes and at least one commando raid on suspected terrorist targets in the FATA that reportedly have resulted in civilian deaths.

The Pakistani military, which has lost hundreds of troops to battles and suicide bombings, is waging offensives against Islamist guerrillas in the Bajaur tribal agency and Swat, a picturesque region of the North West Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan. U.S. officials said insurgent attacks on Pakistani security forces provoked the Pakistani army operations.

The Pakistan general staff also remains concerned about what it considers an ongoing threat to its eastern border from its traditional foe, India, the draft NIE finds, according to the U.S. officials.

For these reasons, they said, the army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, wants the new civilian coalition government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to provide the military with political cover by blessing a major anti-insurgency crackdown.

However, the ruling coalition - in which President Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of the late prime minister Benazir Bhutto, holds the real authority - has been preoccupied by other matters, according to the draft NIE.

These include efforts to consolidate its power after winning a struggle that prompted its main rival, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, to leave the ruling coalition.

Moreover, widespread anti-U.S. anger has left the coalition deeply divided over whether to unleash a major military assault on the Islamists, the U.S. officials said.

Comments

[Don Bacon]

Pakistan likes the US not so much, but it hearts its border neighbor China. President Zardari is now in China for a state visit.

Blowback from the US/India nuclear deal: Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang indicated that nuclear energy co-operation would be discussed during Zardari’s visit, when he will meet President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, but he gave no specifics. “China and Pakistan share sound co-operation in nuclear energy. China is ready, on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, to continue its co-operation with Pakistan,” he said.

Agreements: Over a dozen agreements, memorandums of understanding and protocols to expand co-operation in diverse fields between Pakistan and China are to be signed during the visit.

Soft loan: The Financial Times newspaper also reported Tuesday, without citing sources, Zardari would seek a soft loan of between $500 million and $1.5 billion from China to help Pakistan out of its financial crisis.

Meanwhile, in Pakistan, a conference of Muslim clerics from across the country said on Tuesday that former president Pervez Musharraf’s pacts with the United States should be made public. They called on the government to support Iran, saying it was a better ally than the US.

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