Score 1 For McCain, 1 For Obama, 100 For Sanger Posted by David Shorr

We interrupt this broadcast of heated rhetoric for a reality-based discussion of foreign policy. Many thanks to the New York Times' David Sanger for an impressive dissection of the Iran debate (among others) that digs well below the surface of the campaign's slugfest. In fact, the piece is probably the best stand-in we'll get for the foreign policy debate that might've been.

The Iran question is perhaps the most interesting FP issue of the election, and the Sanger article is very useful guide. The points of consensus are obvious: the need to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon and preserve the military option toward that end. The disagreements boil down to two questions: what is the intended outcome, and how will we reach it?

On the former, I really have to give John McCain credit for a gutsy position. This is not the place for a discourse on the varying potential outcomes for Iran's nuclear program -- for a very clear explanation, I strongly recommend pp. 27-30 of Iran: Assessing US Strategic Options (2MB) from Center for a New American Security -- but the real issue is whether uranium enrichment will continue in Iran. As Sanger reports, McCain

says he could imagine a situation in which Iran’s behavior changes so much that he would be willing “to consider” allowing Iran to enrich its own uranium, producing a fuel that could be used for nuclear power — but only under highly restrictive conditions that ensure it could never be used for weapons.

a position reiterated by Randy Scheunemann in the article. Obama's position: no way, no how.

This isn't an easy call, and aside from a general discomfort with being to John McCain's right, I'm not sure how I feel about it. All I know for sure is that the next administration must consider carefully and clarify for itself what are its bottom lines. As I say, though, McCain is offering a forthright, pragmatic position that is impressively distinct from the usual 'stand tough' fare.

Now, on the question of how to get there -- i.e. induce Iran to commit to a permanent constraint and inspection regime -- which matters for two reasons. To state the obvious, it's no simple matter to induce an outlier renegade government to do anything that it would prefer not to. Second, we have a limited amount of time before Iran will be able to build a nuclear bomb (not months, not decades). As a backdrop, Sanger reminds us that the Bush strategy of pressuring Iran with sanctions from an arms length and without negotiating toward a mutually satisfactory solution

...has been a complete failure: Iran has 3,800 centrifuges, up from a few hundred experimental centrifuges when the administration began...

And this, of course, is where Obama has the advantage. For me, the essential thing will be to get down to business with Iran, make the most of the limited time we have, and work our way toward a workable arrangement, with clear proof tests of each side's good faith at every step along the way. It's time to get cracking.

Comments

[tatere]

Could someone explain to me again why India+Bomb=OK, Pakistan+Bomb=OK, Israel+Bomb=OK, but Iran+Bomb=OMGDOOM! ??

Because I missed that part.

[I]t's no simple matter to induce an outlier renegade government to do anything that it would prefer not to...

Absolutely. As anyone dealing with the US lately could tell you.

[Cadavre]

For me, the essential thing will be to get down to business with Iran, make the most of the limited time we have, and work our way toward a workable arrangement, with clear proof tests of each side's good faith at every step along the way.

Do really think the US has anything left in it's wad to dictate terms to anybody anymore.

The center of the world is Iran, China, Russia. We've got about as much clout as a Chicklets vendor outside a bullring in Juarez.

Just as our oligarchs through their Zoglodytic busboys, like Obama and McCain and Greenspan and Jeff Gannon's Lil Beau Peep D'noir, El Dubilito cheer lead our technology and engineering over there with 2ed Rate Microsoft System Tools and tax breaks for General Motors in China, while Ohio Machine Tools Trades wither on the vine, so goes our heritage.

And the NY Times - the treasonous traitorous "I will publish any lie to kill Arabs" Judith Miller, along with her top secret clearance when she Goebbels-shilled for genocide in Iraq - kind of took any street creds the NYT had and dumped it in the cistern my spaghetti dinner from 2 nights ago is in.

Think about it:
1) The Repugs could have won hands down had Ron Paul been the nominee.

2) McCain would have had a fighting chance had his committee not dumped Palin on him.

3) Obama picks "I am a Zionist" Biden and dumps Reverend Wright and sojourns to the land of Sour Milk and Tainted honey to fold a prayer in a crack all tranced out in a Zoglodyte Puberty Ritual.

Doesn't all this strike you as just a tad too arranged?

Obama like McCain voted to ex post facto ATT so they would not have to pay customers a 1000$ a pop for violating their privacy agreements.

Obama and McCain both voted to bail out the banker class to save our 401Ks - yet - since that vote - out portfolios have deflated another 25%.

And now you're grabbing fanny and hoopla-ing like there's something to celebrate about the US becoming a banana republic and pretending like we have any negotiation position at all with anybody. We need Iran a lot more than Iran needs us - yet you still seem think the tough guy shtick will still play in Tehran?

Is that air you're breathing?

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