Arming Militias Makes me Nervous Posted by Patrick Barry

I’ve been struggling with how to greet today's announcement that Pakistan's Government intends to arm tribal militias in the northwestern part of the country, and I still don't have a definitive take on it.  On a purely superficial level, I suppose it's good that Pakistan is treating its terrorism\insurgency problem seriously.  If the Post's coverage is an accurate barometer of Bush Administration sentiment, then they appear to feel similarly.

But, like with so many things, it all depends on the execution, and here my views are much more mixed, both when it comes to short-term issues surrounding the plan's implementation, and also regarding its long-term prospects for turning the tribal areas – a historically autonomous, and increasingly lawless region - into less of a problem for Pakistan.

First I should say that in principle, I support the idea of working through proxies, whose deficiencies in resources and training is canceled out by their familiarity with local customs & terrain, and also by their perceived legitimacy among local actors.  The Bush administration appears to have recognized this by placing their cautious support behind a Pakistani solution, and judging from Pakistan’s decision to work through tribal militias instead of relying on so-far ineffective military operations, they have recognized it too.  Still, the whole thing feels like it is born out of opportunism, and also the recognition of the inherent constraints involved in working within the tribal areas.  That doesn’t necessarily argue against the plan, but it is cause for stepping gingerly.

One reason to be cautious has to do with the knowledge gap that exists when it comes to Northwest Pakistan.  The FATA is a murky, murky place, replete with shifting loyalties and factionalism. Intelligence is notoriously unreliable.  Some tribes continue to maintain operational ties with the Taliban, and you would be hard-pressed to describe the rest as exemplars of moderation.  While it's probably OK to arm tribesmen who used have links to the Taliban, it's completely unacceptable to send shipments of Kalashnikovs to groups whose loyalties remain an open question    It would be prudent to put precautionary measures in place to reduce the likelihood that these tribes, once armed, will just join up with the insurgency, and that limit the harmful consequences of that contingency occurring.  One possible safeguard that the U.S. could propose is to offer consultative assistance on gathering biometric data on every tribesman who accepts weapons from Pakistan’s government.  DOD set up such a program to accompany support for the Awakening in Iraq, and there is no reason why Pakistan couldn’t adopt something similar.   

Another consideration, one which actually argues in favor of setting up militias, is that for some time now, the Taliban and al-Qaeda have been systematically eliminating local elders – part of an attempt to disrupt the patterns of tribal life, undercut forces which might oppose them, and intimidate others into joining them.  Dexter Filkins had an excellent, if grim, article in the New York Times Magazine, which outlined the perilous position in which Pakistan’s tribal leaders find themselves:

The rise of the Taliban and Al Qaeda has come at the expense of the maliks, who have been systematically murdered and marginalized in a campaign to destroy the old order. In South Waziristan, where Mehsud presides, the Taliban and Al Qaeda have killed more than 150 maliks since 2005, all but destroying the tribal system. And there are continual reminders of what happens to the survivors who do not understand this — who, for example, attempt to talk with Pakistan’s civilian government and assert their authority. In June, Mehsud’s men gunned down 28 tribal leaders who had formed a “peace committee” in South Waziristan. Their bodies were dumped on the side of a road.

This assassination and intimidation campaign has unfolded in a coordinated, organized fashion for years, making it difficult to identify tribal figures with either the willingness or the ability to take a different path.  The Taliban’s hope is that in the absence of a traditional tribal model for authority, they will be able to swoop in and set up a new order in its place.  Providing tribesmen the ability to defend themselves is a necessary step toward stemming this murderous tide, and to ensure that the old tribal order, whatever its faults, is not replaced with something far more sinister by the Taliban.  I don't think this concern simplifies the equation - in fact, it probably complicates things further- but it definitely needs to be weighed against all the other factors at work.

A final point, and this really gets to the core of my ambivalence toward the government's plan, is that it really does not address the underlying concern about the tribal territories – their poor integration into the Pakistani state.  A recent piece by Barney Rubin and Ahmed Rashid appearing in Foreign Affairs, does a nice job of illustrating this point:

Within the FATA, these tribes, not the government, are responsible for security. The area is kept underdeveloped and overarmed as a barrier against invaders. (That is also why any ground intervention there by the United States or NATO will fail.) Now, the Pakistani military has turned the FATA into a staging area for militants who can be used to conduct asymmetric warfare in both Afghanistan and Kashmir, since the region's special status provides for (decreasingly) plausible deniability. This use of the FATA has eroded state control, especially in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province, which abuts the FATA. The Swat Valley, where Pakistani Taliban fighters have been battling the government for several years, links Afghanistan and the FATA to Kashmir. Pakistan's strategy for external security has thus undermined its internal security.

As Rashid and Rubin lay out, it once served Pakistan’s interest for there to be a zone of instability between Afghanistan and Kashmir, because it acted as a buttress against two rivals, India and Russia.  But now, because of the attacks on Pakistan proper that emanate from this region, letting it remain autonomous is no longer such a good option.  If the long-term goal is to extend the reach of the Pakistani government into the tribal areas, then arming them - without a corresponding push for political integration - may accomplish the opposite.

I can understand the need to address the deteriorating situation in the FATA quickly, but in doing so we should at least wonder whether the means we’ve chosen carry potential for further instability somewhere down the line.

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