Cuba's Human Tempest Posted by Adam Blickstein

While America's Gulf Coast still reels from the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Ike (with the requisite FEMA incompetence included), the long-term health and societal effects of the massive storm in the Caribbean are just now coming to light. In human terms, the storm, along with Hurricane Gustav, has "overwhelmed" countries like Haiti, sparking a humanitarian crisis with over 800,000 people there in dire need of immediate aid. Across the Windward Passage, Cuba is facing a similar crisis, though there the political component, including America's ongoing embargo, complicates relief efforts. Already struggling with importing enough food to sustain its population, Cuba has put into place emergency measures to try and salvage what domestic goods weren't destroyed by the tempest. But the greatest obstacle towards stabilizing the situation remains political:

The Cuban government has also hit out at the US over the shortages, saying its trade sanctions were the biggest obstacle to Cuba's recovery.

The embargo prevents Cuba from buying supplies directly from the US, and prevents the island from purchasing any US goods on credit.

"The economic, commercial and financial blockade imposed during 50 years by the United States is the main obstacle to Cuba's development," Felipe Perez Roque, the Cuban foreign minister, said.

Massachusetts Representative Bill Delahunt, during a hearing, yesterday said he planned to introduce legislation to temporarily lift the trade embargo in order to help Cuba move past the crisis. The U.S. has already sanctioned $250 million in "farm sales" to Cuba (which includes lumber), but greater measures might need to be taken in terms of infrastructural and medical assistance. Delahunt's legislation has little chance of seeing the light of day, especially in the current political climate and continued Republican archaic intransigence, but whoever gets elected President in November may be facing a humanitarian and political crisis in Cuba. The ramifications in terms of a human exodus from Cuba to Southern Florida could be stark:

The destruction inflicted on Cuba by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike dramatically raises the risk that the next U.S. president will face an immigration crisis next summer when the warm weather makes crossing the Florida Strait propitious for Cuban refugees...

In years past, when economic shocks dashed expectations for a better life on the island, Cubans by the thousands have looked northward. Economic crises have been a prelude to migration crises -- the 1980 Mariel boatlift and the 1994 balsero crisis. On both occasions, Washington failed to heed the warning signs that migration pressures were building and was woefully unprepared when the crisis erupted.

The next U.S. president should start planning for the possibility of a new migration crisis on Inauguration Day, if not before. As Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton both discovered, once migration pressures reach critical mass and Cubans begin to climb on boats and rafts heading north, none of the policy options available to the president is good.

It certainly would be cheaper, both in terms of capital and societal impact, to simply provide a temporary lift of the embargo to help Cubans in Cuba instead of dealing with a refugee crisis here that would have a far greater ramifications for America. While its unlikely to happen, it makes sense from a policy perspective regardless of political impact, though the tunnel vision of certain policymakers in Washington blinds them to the stark reality that their politically motivated decisions may help incite an unprecedented Cuban exodus to America. It's just sad that political bravado and posturing still trumps a sensible policy shift that would help prevent the crisis from reaching our own shores.

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