Counterinsurgency: It's All About the Politics Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

John McCain's campaign and experts like Max Boot have all been saying that Maliki's calls for a timeline are meaningless because they are all about political posturing for his domestic audience.  This completely misses the point as I explain in my newest piece for the American Prospect.

Insurgencies and counterinsurgency strategies are, at their very core, all about domestic politics....Maliki's recent declaration was not, as John McCain would have you believe, just the Iraqi government playing politics. Instead, it was a genuine attempt by the Iraqi government to increase its legitimacy with its people -- a critical element of counterinsurgency. One of the main factors limiting the Iraqi government’s credibility with its own people is its complete dependence on the United States. Maliki's declarations were meant to limit that perception and shore up domestic support. After coming out so strongly and publicly for a gradual American withdrawal, the Maliki government has made it all but impossible to walk back. If it were to now sign an agreement that did not include some specific target dates for withdrawal or that tried to preserve the permanent South Korea-like presence that John McCain has long advocated, it would be seen by its own people as a weak American puppet instead of the legitimate government that it must become.

Comments

[Peace]

The situation in Iraq somewhat resembles Vietnam in 1963 in that both the Iraqi and South Vietnamese governments wanted the Americans out and an independent foreign policy. According to David Kaiser in his book "American Tragedy," the South Vietnamese leader Diem wanted South Vietnam to have a neutralist position and thereby solving some of the internal political issues in South Vietnam. The Americans were not thrilled about this idea and had Diem assasinated. It appears that Obama has realized the leason COIN warfare and has allowed Maliki to chart his own course while McCain seems intent on repeating the mistakes of the Vietnam war.

[Peace]

Also Fredrik Logevall's "Choosing War," is another great book about the US ignoring Diem's request for South Vietnamese neutralism.