A Potentially Bad "Prediction" Posted by Michael Cohen

A hat tip to Ilan for noting the dangers of the Sadr Militia breaking their cease fire. The possibility of increased violence in Iraq now seems like a real threat. How ever will the White House respond?

Let's see, today in the New York Times we have confirmation of something practically all of us already knew - the troops aren't coming home from Iraq any time soon. As to why, here's part of the White House's rationale:

By many accounts, the addition of five combat brigades last year, which raised the American troop level to a peak of nearly 170,000 from 132,000, was a factor in helping reduce violence in Iraq. But Mr. Bush and his aides are described as wary of risking the gains.

So what then would happen if violence increased as Ilan warns - would the White House see this as a failure of its surge policy? Would they see the increase in violence as a sign that the lack of political progress in Iraq has undermined the recent security gains?

Allow me to make a prediction - not a chance in hell. If violence increases, the White House will simply argue that we need to stay longer in order to stop Iraq from falling into further disarray. If Intrade had a contract on this, I'd be all in. Violence down: we stay. Violence up: we stay. 

Somewhere George Orwell is preparing a copyright infringement suit.

Comments

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I think we can look forward to 'Son of Surge'. How long before the military can be ready to do it?

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Allow me to make a prediction - not a chance in hell. If violence increases, the White House will simply argue that we need to stay longer in order to stop Iraq from falling into further disarray. If Intrade had a contract on this, I'd be all in. Violence down: we stay. Violence up: we stay.