My Bloomberg Prediction based on Rumors and Speculation Posted by Shadi Hamid

Some second-hand hearsay twice-removed from someone associated with Mayor Bloomberg leads me to make the following prediction:

If Hillary wins, Bloomberg will run.
If Obama wins, Bloomberg will not run.

So, if we're talking about the electability of Obama vs. Hillary, that's something worth considering. Regardless of whether such speculation is to be believed, it's also fairly intuitive. The raison d'etre of a Bloomberg insurgency crumbles almost entirely if Obama is the nominee. But if we're running headlong into a Hillary-McCain or particularly a Hillary-Romney faceoff, then a Bloomberg run has a much better chance of gaining traction with Americans - an outcome which would probably hurt Democrats more than Republicans.

Comments

[Simmons]

If John McCain wins the nomination, I see that too as making it less likely Bloomberg runs.

[Mike M.]

Why would Bloomberg, who is not a progressive and not even left of center, take votes from Democrats?

[Mike M.]

And isn't it sad that Bloomberg can effect people's votes by threatening to run?

[Andrew MacRae]

I think you are underestimating Bloomberg's desire to see experienced change-oriented leadership in Washington DC. Obama, nice guy, but what sort of executive experience does he have? I don't think Bloomberg is going to take votes from anyone, I think he is going to win. Then again, I am biased because I am trying to Draft him at www.UniteForMike.com

[Mike M.]

He's a horrible mayor.

[Michael Cohen]

Mike, do yo live in NYC? I can't imagine you do because I dont think you would find many New Yorkers who think Mike Bloomberg has been an awful mayor. In fact, if every major American city had a Mayor like Mike Bloomberg I think we'd be a little better off.

[Mike M.]

I do live in NYC, Michael. Bloomberg is arrogant and unresponsive to people. I think even he'd admit that. This is the guy who said that living in NYC is a "luxury good," remember.