My Bloomberg Prediction based on Rumors and Speculation Posted by Shadi Hamid

Some second-hand hearsay twice-removed from someone associated with Mayor Bloomberg leads me to make the following prediction:

If Hillary wins, Bloomberg will run.
If Obama wins, Bloomberg will not run.

So, if we're talking about the electability of Obama vs. Hillary, that's something worth considering. Regardless of whether such speculation is to be believed, it's also fairly intuitive. The raison d'etre of a Bloomberg insurgency crumbles almost entirely if Obama is the nominee. But if we're running headlong into a Hillary-McCain or particularly a Hillary-Romney faceoff, then a Bloomberg run has a much better chance of gaining traction with Americans - an outcome which would probably hurt Democrats more than Republicans.

Comments

[Simmons]

If John McCain wins the nomination, I see that too as making it less likely Bloomberg runs.

[Mike M.]

Why would Bloomberg, who is not a progressive and not even left of center, take votes from Democrats?

[Mike M.]

And isn't it sad that Bloomberg can effect people's votes by threatening to run?