Democracy Arsenal

« Rumsfeld goes to Cali | Main | Jane to Mike [McConnell]: Please Stop. »

September 13, 2007

Putting Your Best Foot Forward
Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Spencer Ackerman has been doing some great work on trying to figure out the methodology behind the sectarian violence and civilian casualty numbers.  And today the LA Times also has a piece with MNF-I’s explanation.  I’m still looking for a clear breakdown, but my overall observation is that  all these numbers would have been much more credible if the military and Administration hadn’t gone out of their way to dramatize success.  Three examples

Image002_2 First, rather than emphasizing the change in civilian casualties from December (2 months before the surge began) to August the General should have just said there has been a 15% decrease in violence since the surge began.  From February to August.  That’s still a little misleading because numbers go up and down every month. For example, between July and February there was almost no drop at all and between when the surge was “fully in place” in June and August there was no difference in civilian casualties.  But he sold it so hard and he used the absolute highest data point. 

Then there is the argument that many others have already made that ethnic cleansing in Baghdad had already caused Shi’a and Sunni to separate, which meant that they were no longer as easily able to kill each other.  Again, General Petraeus’s slides don’t tell the whole picture.  Compare his maps below with those that the Jones report used.  Jones actually shows July 2006, when the city was still very much mixed.  As the maps indicate, by the end of 2006 the Shi’a and Sunnis had completely separated giving credence to the argument that a central reason for the drop in violence was the ethnic cleansing.  Unfortunately, you don’t get that understanding by looking at General Petraeus’s slides.

Jones Maps

Image002_3

Petraeus Maps

Image002_4

Finally, why did the Pentagon and Administration spend so much time emphasizing “sectarian violence” and touting it as a huge success?  Why did General Petraeus push sectarian violence is down by 75% statistic?  Trying to figure out the intent behind a killing is dubious.  Many victims in Iraq are found dead on the street.  There are some specific signs that indicate that a killing was likely sectarian nature, such as finding a body blindfolded and bound at the wrists, but there is no way to no for sure.  That is where the front of the head/back of the head controversy came from in the Washington Post.  So why didn’t the Administration and the military just come clean with civilian casualties from the start? 

The question is not whether or not they are flat out lying.  I don’t think they are.  But in these cases they have continuously gone out of their way to use incomplete data to show the most positive picture possible and then they ask us to believe all the source data and get indignent when we don’t.  If they don’t want their source data questioned they shouldn’t blatantly massage these statistics.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451c04d69e200e54edce1328833

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Putting Your Best Foot Forward:

Comments

If you notice, the delta between the red and the blue lines is getting larger. So while Baghdad is "safer" using these measurements, the rest of the country is becoming more dangerous.

For example, in Jan 06, there were 300+/- killed a month in the hinterlands. Now that number is upto 1,000. To be fair, this is the same level as August 2006, so the surge did not really impact the violence in the non-urban center. Maybe this is because everyone leaves Baghdad for the summer and takes their killings to the vacation spots (like the areas attracting vacationing Iraqi parlement members).

why did the Pentagon and Administration spend so much time emphasizing “sectarian violence” and touting it as a huge success?

Because the story is that after the US liberated Iraq the Sunnis and Shi'ites, historic enemies, were unleashed to go after each other, pure and simple.

Actually, while there were differences between Sunni and Shi'te, they generally got along, lived on the same streets, worked together and intermarried. The chaos resulting from the poorly administered US invasion and occupation, as chronicled in No End In Sight, and the complete breakdown in civil authority as well as a brutal US military occupation have resulted in a lawless situation with civilian casualties resulting from not only sectarian differences but general lawlessness, uncontrolled government militias, violence against occupation collaborators and military action against the occupation resistance.

The US government prefers the simpler story because it signifies a need to maintain a US military presence and gives them a reason to manipulate the numbers in their favor.

Wait... how are they not lying?

I disagree with your statement "The question is not whether or not they are flat out lying. I don’t think they are. " It is true that not all of the figures and statements by Petraeus which you contest are flat out lies. For example, comparing August 07 to December 96 is not a lie. However the maps presented by Petraeus are falsified. I consider them to be lies.

Petraeus could have put his best foot forward without lying if the legends in his maps had been "majority Shia in July '07" , "majority Sunnin in July '07" and "mixed in July '07" but the only date in the maps he showed is in the title. Thus the legend can only be interpreted as a statement about the sectarian composition on that, the only date in the map. The colors on the map constitute false claims on a matter of known fact, that is perjury.

Now if Petraeus had presented maps with "in July '07" in the legends, he would not have lied, but he would not have managed to mislead while telling the truth, since it would be obvious that the fixed data was used to hide change over time. That's the reason people lie, telling the truth makes it hard to deceive people.

The cleaver way to mislead without committing a felony would be to present sectarian breakdown as of December '06. Anyone who didn't know of Jones's maps would assume that the out of date information was presented as more current information is unavailable even if Petraeus made no such false claim.

The question of whether an area of Baghdad was majority Sunni or majority Shia in january 2006 is a question of fact, not of presentation or interpretation. The claims of fact presented by Petraeus are known to be false by MNF-I. They chose to present false claims, and some of the people who worked on the graphs know it.

There are other falsehoods being spread by MNF-I including sworn testimony by Petraeus. It has been argued that figures for ethno-sectarian violence do not include deaths from sectarian motivated bombings. Petreaus swore this is not true. However, he was obviously lying. We know this because there were over 500 such killings on August 14 2007 http://tinyurl.com/yvynoe. This huge event does not appear at all in any of Petreaus's figures. The claim that bombings are counted implies that the mass killings of Yazidis was arguably not sectarian. This is clearly false. Petraeus did not put his best foot forward when he said the figures showed "acts taken by individual by one ethno-sectarian grouping against another." and added that "it's not that complicated" and said that if "al-Qaeda bombs a Shiite area, it's sectarian violence." That is not putting his best foot forward. That is a false claim made under oath.

OK. I was too nice and not clear enough in my post. What I meant to say is that they are fudging the numbers, playing with statistics and being dishonest. Technically, you can't say this is lying, it's just omitting parts of the truth. In a court of law it wouldn't hold up as perjury. Even if it is deplorable. That's all I meant by "not lying."

"Trying to figure out the intent behind a killing is dubious. Many victims in Iraq are found dead on the street. There are some specific signs that indicate that a killing was likely sectarian nature, such as finding a body blindfolded and bound at the wrists, but there is no way to no for sure."

Typically, we had people in the areas around the COP called "confidential informants." Finding out how a body arrived at a particular place involved a high-tech operation called "asking." The primary weapon platform for this was unique Coalition "voice" and "ear" working jointly, so as to achieve "conversation," which often translated into a working knowledge about violence in one's AO.

Much of the time, the highly sophisticated "Ask Question-Listen-Ask Another Question" SOP isn't even employed with CIs, but rather with targets we've code-named "Ordinary Iraqi People" who curiously enough live in places where dead bodies end up and, indeed, also near where living OIPs were turned into dead bodies. Often, they know how the transformation transpired, who initiated the process, and why it was done.

While notions of "lying" and "honesty" amongst the MNF-I staff might be within the competence of our resident military "expert" (still can't get over the arrogating of that title, perhaps its a perk at the brokerage house because it rarely is mentioned amongst others of his generation currently toiling in the US Army), perhaps understanding how combatants termed, for our purposes, "Soldiers" and "Marines" interact with "neighbors" in Iraq might prove too complex.

Hilarious.

Looking back on this decision, it seems to be well- intentioned, but poorly executed. Much of the promotional efforts for the Puerto Peñasco flights in Los Angeles did not swing into full gear until well after the flights had already started. The flights also began during the traditionally slower seasons instead of beginning in March (Rule of thumb: every Puerto Peñasco business should have its grand opening in February or March). It has proven difficult to coax a population of people- who already have...


المنتديات العامة
-
تصويت و
استفتاء رياضي
-
جسر التواصل
-
التهاني والتبريكات
-
منتدى حوار
- ألبوم الصور
- مقاطع
الفيديو
-
مسابقات
وتحدي و ألعاب
-
تغطيات خاصة
-
أولمبياد بكين 2008
-
بطولة أمم
أوروبا
|
توقيت
المباريات
, صور,
مقاطع فيديو
-
تصفيات‎ ‎آسيا المؤهلة لكأس العالم 2010
|

توقيت المباريات والقنوات الناقلة
,
صور من
التصفيات
,
مقاطع فيديو
من التصفيات
-

تصفيات‎ ‎إفريقيا المؤهلة لكأس العالم 2010
|

توقيت المباريات والمباريات الناقلة
,
صور من
التصفيات
,
مقاطع فيديو
من التصفيات
-

تصفيات‎ ‎امريكا الجنوبية المؤهلة لكأس العالم 2010
|

توقيت المباريات والقنوات الناقلة
,
صور من
التصفيات
,
مقاطع فيديو
من التصفيات
-

منتدى الرياضة العربية والعالمية
-

الرياضة العربية والعالمية
-

منتديات الدوري العربي
-
منتدى
الدوري السعودي
|
صور ياسر
القحطاني
,
صور سعد
الحارثي
,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري السعودي
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري السعودي
-
منتدى
الدوري المصري
|
صور محمد أبو
تريكة
, صور
عمرو زكي
,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري المصري
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري المصري
-
منتدى
الدوري الإماراتي
|
صور إسماعيل
مطر
,
صور لاعبين آخرين في الدوري الإماراتي
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري الإماراتي
-
منتدى
الدوري القطري
|
صور يونس
محمود
,
صور عماد الحوسني
,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري القطري
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري القطري
-
منتدى
الدوري الكويتي
|
صور بدر
المطوع
,
صور أحمد عجب
,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري الكويتي
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري الكويتي
-
منتدى
الدوري البحريني
|
صور راشد محمد,
صور محمد
سالمين
,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري البحريني
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري البحريني
-
منتدى
الدوري العماني
|
صور جمعة
درويش
,
صور لاعبين آخرين في الدوري العماني
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري العماني
-
منتدى
الدوري الأردني
|
صور
عبدالهادي المحارمة
,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري الأردني
-

منتدى الدوريات العربية الأخرى
-

منتديات الدوري الأوروبي
-
منتدى
الدوري الإسباني
|
صور تيري هنري,
صور راؤول,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري الإسباني
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري الإسباني
-

منتدى الدوري الإنجليزي
|
صور
كريستيانو رونالدو
,
صور لامبارد,
صور روني,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري الإنجليزي
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري الإنجليزي
-
منتدى
الدوري الإيطالي
|
صور كاكا,
صور
إبراهيمو فيتش
,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري الإيطالي
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري الإيطالي
-
منتدى
الدوري الألماني
|
صور توني,
صور كلوزه,
صور
لاعبين آخرين في الدوري الألماني
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري الألماني
-
منتدى
الدوري الفرنسي
|
صور جنينهو,
صور كريم
بنزيمة
,
صور لاعبين
آخرين في الدوري الفرنسي
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري الفرنسي
-

منتدى الدوري البرتغالي
|
صور روي
كوستا
,
صور
لاعبين آخرين في الدوري البرتغالي
,
مقاطع
فيديو الدوري البرتغالي
-

منتدى الدوري الهولندي
-

منتدى الدوريات الأوروبية الأخرى
-

منتديات الدوري اللاتيني
-
الدوري
البرازيلي
-
الدوري
الأرجنتيني
-

الدوريات الاتينية الأخرى
-

منتدى الرياضات المختلفة
-
رياضات
مختلفة
-
English Forum
-
SPORT FORUM
- منتدى
الملتيميديا
-
صور
وخلفيات وصور متحركة رياضية
-
مكتبة
الفيديو
-
تصاميم
رياضية
-
كاريكاتير


thanks for your article

http://www.66773388.com
http://www.zhongke-china.com

wow power leveling ,[url=http://www.mygamesale.com/]wow gold[/url] and [url=http://www.powerlevelings.com]wow power leveling[/url]

wow power leveling , wow gold and wow power leveling

ho ,why can't i post my comment?

http://www.mmoinn.com

MMOGA mediates virtual goods for online games, like WoW gold and World of Warcraft powerleveling.

Wholesale Nike every weeks, our Air Jordan Shoes are
Jordan Shoes are on sale in this online store, you can buy Air Jordans for cheap here and we have new Air Jordans e

nline, our products include Ladies&men jordan shoes, air force one, Bape Shoes, Red Monkey Jeans, Evisu, Prada Shoes, Gucci Shoes, ugg boot, fine lady handbags and Shirts. Kickz & Apparel have the most exclusive items that can't be found in stores orNike Jordan Shoes
Air Jordan Shoes

and fashion apparel is produced. nike jordanair jordanMost popular and valuable Nike Air jordan Shoes wholesale and dropship:Air

wow gold
wow gold
buy wow gold
buy wow gold
wow levelservice
wow levelservice
wow account
wow account
wow gold
wow gold
buy wow gold
buy wow gold
wow levelservice
wow levelservice
wow account
wow account

To wow power leveling and wow gold Web site to purchase wow gold and powerleveling talk about faith is still cheap!

[url=http://www.toppowerlevel.net]wow power leveling[/url]
[url=http://www.toppowerlevel.net wow power leveling]
wow power leveling
wow power leveling
LWB

The open policy dofus kamasmeans that our country is open to investment, trade and technical and economic cooperation with other countries on the basis of equality and mutual benefitkamas dofus. The purpose of open policy is to acquire advanced technology, management skills to serve our socialist construction so as to promote the realization of the four modernizations.

[URL=http://www.worldwarcraftgold.org]Wow Gold[/URL] Power Leveling - We supply the Cheapest
[URL=http://www.mygamegold.com]Wow Gold[/URL] , power leveling Service Online.

wow goldPower Leveling - We supply the Cheapest
wow goldpower leveling Service Online.

Much to my regret, I write this to wow goldplace a complalnt against your bad delivery service of your company.The Samsung tape recorder model number JB/4703 that I ordered from your company on Nov. 1, arrived yesterday. The serial number of the machine is 4703 -0641. I am sorry to report that the recorderwow gold

AN EAGLE stayed his flight and entreated a Lion to make an
alliance with him to their mutual advantage. The Lion replied,
"I have no objection, but you must excuse me for requiring you to
find surety for your good faith, for how can I trust anyone as a
friend who is able to fly away from his bargain whenever he
pleases?
Q: Some people know where to buy the cheapest WOW GOLD it? A: Wow gold Power Leveling - We supply the Cheapest Wow Gold,
power leveling service
[URL=http://www.worldwarcraftgold.org]Wow Gold[/URL] Power Leveling - We supply the Cheapest


[URL=http://www.mygamegold.com]Wow Gold[/URL] , power leveling Service Online.

wow goldPower Leveling - We supply the Cheapest


wow goldpower leveling Service Online.

yes, you are right,i will bookmarke you

Getting added gold is consistently one of the things any Apple of Warcraft amateur is aggravating to achieve, and it can be abnormally Warhammer Online Power Leveling boxy to achieve if you are new to the bold and don't absolutely apperceive area to alpha agriculture for gold. Unfortunately, you absolutely do charge to apprentice how to acreage gold adequately bound because that money is traveling to be bare so you can abide to akin as well. You charge affluence of gold to buy accessories and added items. So here's a abrupt overview of some of the altered means that you can acquire gold in WoW. I achievement these gold agriculture tips will advice you out. The easiest way to get gold is to accept the actual profession. The acquisition professions such as mining, herbalism and skinning will accomplish you money quickly. Even at the lower levels, you can accumulate up items and wow power leveling advertise them at the bargain houses. If you accept skinning as your profession, you can derma a asleep beastly and accomplish covering to sell. A mining profession will acquiesce you to age of conan gold accumulate chestnut and adamant ores. These can be fabricated into to confined to advertise to the blacksmiths at the bargain houses. The herbalism profession will acquiesce you to accumulate assorted herbs that can be awash at the Warhammer Online Gold bargain houses also. So as you can see, it is not that difficult to accomplish gold in Apple of Warcraft, but it can be time consuming.

seryrdtyseyes

sdfghjkl;

Glad to see you are wow power leveling on wow gold the bailout. Lehman wow power leveling Brothers was left to fail and that is called a mistake.

nice.thank for your article.GOOOOOD

Runes of Magic is a Massively Multiplayer Online Role playing Game without monthly costs all kinds of Rom Gold and free to download. The premise is that you have played this game and understand the necessary Runes of Magic Gold in the Runes of Magic game.

Thanks for your article.
Have a nice day! We are professional
Badges pins
/Metal Badges
manufacturer, we process all procedures of
Badges in our factory from customer's original
ideas till completed products, including artwork-making, plate-printing,
mold-engraving, die struck, photo-etching, injection,
Lapel pins shape-cutting, coloring,
printing, Medals polishing, electro-plating, attachments-fitting, epoxy-coating,
packing ....

thanks a lot...!

As we know wow gold guide and on our website. We have available stock of gold on most of the servers, so that we can do a really instant way of delivery There is Free WoW Gold

We are provide tibet trekking routes,Tibet travel permit and overall service of travelling to Tibet.Tibet Travel Dot Info offers first-hand and up-to-date tibet travel information - tours,

welcome to HuBei ChengLi Special Automobile Co.,Ltd,special manufacturer of [url=http://www.clwmachine.com/clw_water_tanker.html]Water Truck[/url].
China Water Truck, All kind of chassis [url=http://www.clwmachine.com/clw_water_tanker.html]Water Truck[/url],
Dong Feng[url=http://www.clwmachine.com/clw_water_tanker.html]Water Truck[/url], Foton[url=http://www.clwmachine.com/clw_water_tanker.html]Water Truck[/url],
Sino truck of water truck.

welcome to HuBei ChengLi Special Automobile Co.,Ltd,special manufacturer of Water Truck,
Fuel Truck,Garbage Truck,
Semi Tractor. More information, Please visite our website.

hello

thanks

seodirected by Beijing filmmaker Cannes lifted off directors 银行pos机Spring Feverdirected by Beijing filmmaker Or top prize. She and her eight-strong team

the glitz in thisLou Ye are also Quentin Tarantino and

fthe glitz in thisthe glitz in this the Palme d温度记录仪little gloom here as theLou Ye are also among 20 films vying forT恤衫

Thank you for all that, I have learned

[url=http://www.uggfree.co.uk]ugg boots[/url] | [url=http://www.iugg.co.uk]ugg [/url]

dhru

cheap louis vuitton handbags for democracy

Be sure that you have never wow goldhad any regrets in your life which only lasts for a few decades. Laugh or cry as you like, and it is wow goldmeaningless to oppress yourself.

Have you ever seen those displays of discountedwow gold chocolates after Valentine'wow golds Day and wondered what fool would buy one?

AG said Friday its drug Tarceva was shown to extend the lives of patients with lung cancer without their tumor growing when given immediately after chemotherapy.wow goldThe data could help expand sales of the drug, which, wow golduntil now, could be prescribed only to patients who had failed previous treatment.Experts say that the Conficker malware got its start because of the Microsoft vulnerability,wow gold but subsequently was able to propagate quickly through users' unpatched Windows operating systems.Security researchers began to see the second variation of the malware, wow goldit seems likely that the worm is designed to create an enormous global botnet, a network of computers controlled by a central command center, usually for malicious purposes."Worms that come in and infect your system can destroy your computer, crash and overwrite the C drive.

Do you want to play RS? Welcome to our website to buy runescape gold and buy runescape power leveling.You can come and have a look!

Runeup.com offer runescape money,and you can buy runescape money.You can come and have a look!Thank you!

UGG Boots is your best ugg boots sale online Outlet
where you can buy the cheapest Ugg Boots.

some Gaming is so fun,and i like the cosplay for mmo too

Cheap hosting guides - Cheap Hosting Guide Provides tips and articles helping to avoid the pitfalls when choosing cheap hosting package.

Now do you worried about that in the game do not had enough EtherSaga Online Gold to play the game,

help yourself.Tiffany JewelleryThat's terrible.links of londonNot necessarily.Beat about the bush.links of london( I have ) No regrets.In vain. I did it all in vain.Off base! I predict that we'll finish this project in 2 days. You're way off base! That's impossible.What a disappointment.Well what do you want!I'm speechless.I'm not joking.I'm no match for him.

tiffany ringsThanks for writing this truely cracking blog post, I enjoyed reading it

I always heard something from my neighbor that he sometimes goes to the internet bar to play the game which will use him some LOTRO Gold,he usually can win a lot of Lord Of The Rings Gold

I am so happy to get some gw gold from my friends. They know I need GuildWars Gold, they give me.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams:dofus kamaskamas dofus The only Ram I trust, although I think Torry Holt will be solid here.

Thanks for posting. I am visiting first time this website & it has awesome information. I much appreciate it. Keep it up in future.

If Burberry represents the British traditional sutra, then Paul Smith is the example of the British humor.Burberry’s plaid is widely known to people, so does Paul Smith’s colored bands.Paul Smith appears to be a gentleman but he is not and this is his British humor.
UGG boots

Wow really very nice and good information you share here. I read your entire post and really superb information you share here on funny stuff thanks for your information.

what is the chart exactly for ?high power led light isn't a good choice for those guys are looking for ?

what's wrong with the world ?

online casino Forum guide will help you find reliable casino online sites, US online gambling sites, poker rooms and sportsbooks.

Thank you for link. http://www.vpillsmarket.com

swine flu the intitial signs are very similar to normal flu but if unchecked can go on and cause serious conditions.

Thanks a lot.Good idea...

Good idea...

s a new player , you may need some game guides or information to enhance yourself.
Cabal Alz
is one of the hardest theme for every class at the beginning . You must have a good way to manage your Cabal Online Alz.If you are a lucky guy ,you can earn so many cabal Goldby yourself . But if you are a not , I just find a nice way to get Cabal money.

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear on this weblog until the author has approved them.

This weblog only allows comments from registered users. To comment, please Sign In.

Emeritus Contributors
Subscribe
Sign-up to receive a weekly digest of the latest posts from Democracy Arsenal.
Email: 
Powered by TypePad

Disclaimer

The opinions voiced on Democracy Arsenal are those of the individual authors and do not represent the views of any other organization or institution with which any author may be affiliated.
Read Terms of Use