Being Right About Something Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

Here's what I wrote back in April.

If I were President Bush I would be careful about not touting the recent success in Anbar province too publicly.  It’s exactly the type of declaration that invites retaliation.  The Administration is faced with a Catch-22.  In order to prosecute the war it needs the support of the American public.  It therefore goes out of its way to brag about specific successes.  Unfortunately, the American public is not the only audience that pays attention to the President’s and his advisors’ statements.  Iraqis, especially key players such as politicians and insurgent leaders, pay attention too. When they see themselves being used as a talking point they tend to go out of their way to debunk it.

In early September President Bush took a trip to Anbar where he met with Abu Risha, the tribal leader who has been the face of the Anbar Awakening (The ubiquitous photo of the two of them shaking hands was everywhere).  Petraeus and Crocker cited Anbar as one of the key success stories in their recent testimony.

Now Abu Risha is dead.  Apparently his chief of security was paid $1.5 million by AQI to help make that happen.  Meanwhile, AQI has launched a systematic campaign to assassinate tribal leaders and security and political officials in Anbar. This would have happened anyway, but there is no question that the recent publicity elevated the stakes.

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In early September President Bush took a trip to Anbar where he met with Abu Risha, the tribal leader who has been the face of the Anbar Awakening (The ubiquitous photo of the two of them shaking hands was everywhere). Petraeus and Crocker cited Anbar as one of the key success stories in their recent testimony.

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, pay attention too. When they see themselves being used as a talking point they tend to go out of their way to debunk it.