Political Progress Posted by Ilan Goldenberg

So, Maliki and the President are now touting this new political agreement, which no one has seen yet but is supposed to settle the de-Baathification and provincial elections questions. 

There is no way to tell until we see the text of the agreement, but I think most likely this is posturing on the part of Maliki.  Back in early July the cabinet (Or should I say half cabinet , since all of the Sunnis as well as the Sadrists were already boycotting) approved an oil law which the Kurds and Sunnis both objected to.  You had two to three days of news stories about it, but it became pretty apparent very quickly that there was no chance it would actually pass parliament.  Conveniently, this happened one week before the Administration was set to give its midterm July 15 report on Iraq.

Now, we have Maliki taking heat from all sides and interestingly enough we have a "major" breakthrough. Here is a reality check on de-Baathfication.  It is still has to pass parliament.  Here’s what happened last time there was a supposed agreement on de-Baathficiation.

On March 26, a draft law titled the Reconciliation and Accountability Law was circulated by Maliki’s office. It put a three-month limit on the ability of people to bring lawsuits against former members of the regime after which they would be immune from prosecution, eligible for work in the public sector and would receive pension benefits. The law also weakened the power of the de-Baathification commission which had been used as a platform by the Shia government to exact revenge on Sunnis for past wrongs.

Ahmed Chalabi, the former American ally supported by the Neoconservatives, was the main force in derailing the law. “Mr. Chalabi, the former Pentagon protégé, relies on the commission for an official role in Iraq’s government. Having just renovated a spacious office in the Green Zone, he has strongly opposed any effort to weaken his position or the country’s policy on former Baathists. According to a senior official with the commission, Mr. Chalabi and members of his organization sabotaged the American-backed plan by rallying opposition among Shia government officials in southern Iraq, then taking their complaints to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s most powerful Shia cleric. On April 1, Mr. Chalabi visited the ayatollah’s office in Najaf. He later appeared at a news conference, declaring that Ayatollah Sistani told him the law was incomplete and that ‘there would be other drafts.’”

So I guess the question is.  Is Chalabi supporting this?  Will it actually have a chance in Parliament?  I don’t know.

As for Provincial elections... 

As the White House benchmark report in July explained.  There are four elements to establishing a provincial government.

1. Establishing the IHEC Commission: The Government of Iraq has made satisfactory progress toward establishing an IHEC Commission. The Commission has been established.
2. Elections Law: The Government of Iraq has not made satisfactory progress toward establishing a provincial elections law. Drafting of the law has just begun.
3. Provincial Council Authorities: The Government of Iraq has not made satisfactory progress toward establishing provincial council authorities. The COR is working on legislation, which has had its second reading; however, the COR committee continues to work on revisions to the draft law, and it remains unclear when the legislation will come to a third and final vote by the full COR.
4. Provincial Elections Date: The Government of Iraq has not made satisfactory progress toward establishing a date for provincial elections. Legislation required for setting the date has not been enacted.

So, the question here is.  Have all four elements been agreed upon? Will the COR (i.e. Parliament) actually approve them?  I don’t know. But given the Bush Administration’s as well as Maliki’s penchant for consistently declaring progress where there is none, I’m skeptical.

Comments

[Don Bacon]

The US is expecting the Iraqi "government" to accomplish a lot under wartime conditions, much more than ours is probably capable of in terms of structuring an economy, fair elections, etc. Progress in Iraq (or lack of progress) is supposed to affect the US war budget, but will it?

Both chambers of the 110th US Congress will reconvene on September 4th. One key piece of business will be the 2008 Defense Appropriations Act.

S. 1547, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008, would authorize $648 billion in budget authority for defense programs in Fiscal Year 2008. This amount is consistent with the Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Resolution, and consistent with the President’s overall request for the national defense budget, which included a base budget request of $507 billion and a war-related funding request for $141.8 billion. The bill would, however, shift approximately $12 billion from the war-related request to the base budget to pay for programs that are ongoing, or related to increasing the size of the Army and Marine Corps, and not directly related to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The amount represents an increase of $40 billion, or 8.5 percent in real terms, above the amount authorized for Fiscal Year 2007.

It will be interesting, in the light of the disintegration of the Iraqi "government", and their apparent failure to achieve the necessary benchmarks, to see how the Congress will, first, react to the Petraeus/Crocker hearings, and then how they will vote on the budget. Well, maybe not so interesting. If they run true to form they will huff and puff, bluster and fluster, and then pass the full bill--almost two billion dollars per day of warm corporate gravy, and the Iraq and Afghanistan military occupations will be funded for another year. Let's hope not.

[SteveB]

From the article you linked to:

In violence on Sunday, US forces said they bombed a house in the Iraqi city of Samarra on Sunday after fighters attacked them, and police said five children and two women were among the dead.

Saadoun Mohammad, a police officer at Samarra General Hospital, said the hospital's morgue had received the bodies of five children and two women killed in the strike. He said eight people were wounded, including three children and a woman.

But please, tell me more about the new draft de-Baathification law. I'm fascinated.

[Ilan G]

Steve B.,

Fair enough. Couldn't agree more

[runescape gold]

Welcome to our game world, my friend asks me to buy runescape . I do not know how to use the rs gold ; my friend tells me how to use. I will thank for my friends bringing me in this world. I am not regret to buy runescape money . We all love game, if you want to play it, please buy cheap rs gold and join us. Please do not hesitate to have game.

[buy runescape]

he usually can win a lot of rs gold
then he let his friends all have some runescape money
his friends thank him very much for introducing them the cheap rs gold.

[rf gold]

I hope i can get rf online gold in low price.
i buy rf money for you.

[ghost gen]

Players to do the search for the ghost genof a mysterious invisible enemy in the excitements. This nickname, I have two small things in the ghost online gen.

[buy 2moons dil]

I usually buy 2moons dil through Internet and advice from my friends, so I gain a lot of cheap 2moons gold and harvest in life.

[replica Prada Handbags]

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account

[Discount Prada Handbags]

usually buy 2moons dil through Internet and advice from my friends

[Tiffany Earings]

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In

[fake Tiffany Earings]

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account

[luxury watches]

I am so with you,rolex watch
luxury watch

[cheap coach handbags]

Thank you for your sharing! I like i very much!

[cheap r4i software]

Beijing issued another decision and finally provided a timetable of sorts: no universal suffrage elections for the CE until 2017 those for Legco could follow. As for 2012, when both CE and Legco elections occur in the same year, incremental adjustments might be made as per the April 26, 2004 decision disallowing any change in Legco’s half-half balance of seats, which brings us up to date...

[Hampaiden Valkaisu]

So, the question here is. Have all four elements been agreed upon?

[watches]

The sterile dial with its very legible hands and large numerals is fantastic to use,and a breeze to read in low light conditions.There is no chapter ring -- just a stainless steel space between the dial and domed sapphire crystal.The crystal features an internal anti-reflective coating that does successfully lessen the effects of glare.The domed shape of the crystal meets flush against the bezel and,while it is a small detail,the tight fit will prevent nicks in the edge of the crystal and lint or dust from taking up residence in the space.The Moray is powered by the excellent Miyota 8215 automatic movement seen in many Citizen automatics and it gives the Moray a 45 hour power reserve and handwind capability.On my wrist after a few weeks of wear,the Replica Pulsar Watches was running just about 5-7 seconds fast over a given day,spending its nights in a display case facing dial up.This is very close to COSC timing and is very similar to the Halios Holotype which uses the same movement.I wore the Moray exclusively for weeks and can attest that it is veryaccurate,sturdy,and fits easily under all of my sleeves (including Replica Locman Watches).The Moray does exhibit the same rotor noise found in almost allMiyota based Replica Haurex Watches (when you move your wrist fast enough,you willlikely hear the rotor spinning inside the case).The Benarus Moray is nearly sold out in all configurations; only the PVD with the British Racing Green (BRG) dial is Raymond Watches,and it is selling for $550 USD.It has been an big success for Benarus,and is well regarded on many collectors forums.The rare mix of vintage style,simplicity,500m water resistance,and a great price point made the Moray a fast seller.The Moray has quickly become one of my favorite Replica Hugo Boss Watches.Benarus customer service has been great and subjectively the styling is nearly perfect for my taste in Replica Invicta Watches.After about a month of ownership,I have no complaints or warnings with the Benarus Moray; it is a Replica Rotary Watches,very robust,and beautifully built.By James Stacey; For updates on content,follow Watch Report on Twitter.Replica Officina Del Tempo and Replica Mauboussin Watches.

[Liushuanglin198606]

ugg boots clearance On my Egypt Air flight yesterday to Cairo, I witnessed one of the more intriguing in-flight exchanges that I can remember. A bearded, well-dressed man sitting a few seats behind me began shouting at the flight attendant. He was complaining that the in-flight movie was inappropriate. What are these “offensive images?” he asked. These included a 15-minute stretch of the movie where at least one woman at any given time was wearing a bikini. In a couple of scenes at a club, members of opposite sexes were dancing in close proximity while, it appeared, consuming alcoholic beverages. “Are we really all Westernized now?” the man behind me asked,ugg boots clearance as if posing a question to those of us in the back of the plane.

The man’s arguments were rather interesting. He pointed out that if you took a poll of the passengers,ugg boots outlet most would agree the film was morally offensive. He asked the attendant, “if we ask the passengers what they think and they agree with me, then what will you do?” The attendant responded, “we don’t take public opinion (ra’i al ‘am) on the airplane.” The man was right: most passengers, and most Egyptians – the vast majority of whom don’t drink, go to clubs, or wear bikinis – would object to the film’s content. But at what point do they have the right to restrict minority expressions of unfaithfulness?ugg boots clearance

It was an odd, amusing exchange that justified the otherwise unpleasant experience of flying on EgyptAir.ugg boots clearance But it was a reminder of the fundamental lack of consensus in the Arab world over the boundaries and limits of the state. There are two groups – Islamists and secular elites – with worldviews which couldn’t be more different. They live parallel lives in parallel worlds, with parallel institutions. They rarely intersect.ugg boots clearance One group believes it has both history and the Egyptian people on its side. The other side, considerably smaller in number, likely has neither. It does, however, have the power.

This stalemate has paralyzed the Arab world for decades now.ugg boots outlet

Sunday’s elections will be just another version of this.ugg boots clearance The main players are the Muslim Brotherhood – populist, religious, and righteous – and the regime coalition which, with its president soon to pass, finds itself in an uncertain place. Both sides are strong in different ways – and weak in others. Neither seems to have anything resembling a coherent strategy for dealing with the impending transition that is soon to come.

ugg boots clearance

[Davi]

Thanks for the post. This keeps me informed about the topic.

[Nani]

Thanks for the article. This keeps me informed about the topic.

[buy wow gold]

Interesting question, Lisa. I haven't seen any of the experts make this link so far. Most seem to attribute to a poor season for herring.

[Red Wing 875]

Beautiful!!! You truly have an eye for colour.