democracyarsenal.org: Glad to be here, and Worried about the Kurds

May 29, 2007

Glad to be here, and Worried about the Kurds
Posted by Jerry Mayer

Thanks to Ilan and everyone for having me here on this temporary guest blog slot. I'll try not to be boring.
I'm just back from three weeks in Europe, and while I was lecturing on American foreign policy, I was worried about northern Iraq the whole time. What? Worried about the only part of iraq that is relatively peaceful and quite prosperous? Sure, because it is quite likely that sometime between now and January '08, Turkish troops will cross that border in pursuit of the PKK, the Kurdish guerrilla movement that they've been fighting for years. There are several reasons why this could well happen. First, the Turks are quite emotionally attached to the rights of Turks everywhere. There is a small Turkomen population in Iraq, located amidst a large Kurdish population, with population centers in Mosul and Kirkuk. Before January, the Kurds have been promised a referendum in Kirkuk, a center for oil production in northern Iraq. If they win, and they likely will, Turkish leaders have promised serious action, both because it would be bad news for the Iraqi Turks and because having all that oil would greatly empower Iraqi Kurdistan. Another reason for Turkish action is the ongoing secularist-Islamic divide in Turkish politics, which is getting quite hot. Prime Minister Erdogan's religious rhetoric scares many in the Turkish military, but if he gave them a war against the Kurds, all enmity would be forgotten. Just as Bismarck united disparate strands of Germany with blood and iron, Turkish unity would be reforged by conflict with the Kurds. Finally, Turkey might be restrained by its hopes of getting into the EU, but with the election of Sarkozy, that looks even less likely. Turkey has less and less to lose and much to gain, by intervention. Of course, this will represent a catastrophe for Bush's foreign policy, since Turkey is, after Israel, by far our best friend in the region, and the Kurds are our strongest allies in Iraq. But don't think it can't happen. Turkey has invaded Iraq several times in recent years, only border incursions, granted, but Turkish anger at the Kurds is rising. This passionate commentary is typical. Might all be just saber rattling but I don't think so...And what is most alarming of all is that I'm not confident that the current foreign policy team at State or in the NSC has the foggiest idea of how to prevent this. I'll post some of my ideas on how to do that in a later post.
(for Background on the conflict.)(UPDATE--Turns out my background was a little on the biased side, and a Turkish American friend was good enough to point it out. Here's two better ones..... Background1 Background2
Update the SECOND--This article from the Washington Post this AM talks about the likelihood of a Turkish incursion. (*What a cheerful way to start my blogging here--a scenario describing how the war in Iraq gets WORSE...*)

May 29, 2007 at 03:38 PM | Permalink

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May 29, 2007

Glad to be here, and Worried about the Kurds
Posted by Jerry Mayer

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May 29, 2007

Glad to be here, and Worried about the Kurds Posted by Jerry Mayer

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Glad to be here, and Worried about the Kurds
Posted by Jerry Mayer