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May 29, 2007

China Won't You Blow Your Horn
Posted by Suzanne Nossel

A new poll out today by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and WorldPublicOpinion.org reveals that most of the world think China is on its way toward matching the US's economic power, and that people don't much care.  Of the 15 countries surveyed, pluralities in 12 believe that the Chinese economy will grow as large as the US's.  Among the populations most skeptical of Beijing's rise is China's own:  only 50 percent of Chinese surveyed believed their economy will equal the US's.  Only in the Philippines and India were the public's more bearish on China than China's own.  The full poll results are here. 

In no country, including the US, did a plurality judge the inevitability of China's ascent as more negative than positive.  In the US just one in three see China's rise as mostly a matter of concern.  More than half of Americans are neutral on the subject.   Reactions in Poland, India and Russia are likewise split to indifferent.  As Steven Kull, the poll's editor put it:  "despite the tectonic significance of China catching up with the US, overall the world's public response is low key - - almost philosophical."

The results do not suggest a global lovefest for the Chinese.  Publics in 10 of the 15 countries surveyed say they don't trust China to "act responsibly in the world," and an equal number make the same judgment of the US.  The pollsters are quick to point out that this is not just rote distrust of superpowers:  10 out of 16 countries polled about Japan think that country can be trusted to lead responsibly.

What to make of this?  I am not going to mount a lengthy exegesis on the evolution of global attitudes toward the US, but based on the trends I've seen, I attribute these latest results - at least in part - to Iraq.

Why Iraq?

It's been documented by the Program on International Public Attitudes (www.pipa.org) that global perceptions toward the US declined as a result of the Bush Administration's foreign policies and specifically the Iraq war.  The prolongation of the war has turned what might have been a dip into a deep downturn, such that those who might once have put American global leadership on a pedestal - the crowds that thronged Bill Clinton or named babies in small villages after Ronald Reagen - no longer do.  That American global leadership is no longer glorified has made the Chinese look much better by comparison.

To the extent that Washington policymakers rely on the inherent appeal of what they regard as American values to secure their global leadership role, the results suggest that power may be on the wane.  Iraq has tarnished global perceptions of what it means to promote liberty and democracy around the globe.  That the US purports to be out to promote freedom whereas China is preoccupied with securing its access to natural resources doesn't seem to make much difference in the eyes of the beholders.

Iraq has also contributed to the aura of American vulnerability underlying the poll results.  During the late 1990s, French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine coined the US the world's first "hyper-power."  No one talks that way any longer.  American military power has been strained to a degree no one would have imagined possible, and the sense of weakness has carried over. Though the American economy is strong, its no longer seen as unstoppable or untouchable in the way it might have been five years ago.  Meanwhile, of course, the Chinese economy has grown at a steady clip and Beijing no appetite for assuming complex global responsibilities that might weigh them down in similar ways. 

The most intriguing finding in the poll is the Chinese public's doubts about their own growing economic power.  Is this the modesty of a hungry population that doesn't yet take its global stature for granted - - or do they know something we don't?

May 29, 2007 at 04:24 PM |

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Comments

One thing puzzles me about your description of the results, Suzanne. The respondents were asked whether they trust China, and other countries, "to act responsily in the world." But both you and Christopher Whitney rephrase this result in terms of whether China can be trusted to lead responsibly. Surely those questions, while connected, do not amount to the same thing. There are a number of countries in the world that act more-or-less responsibly as members of the world community, but do not exercise much, if any, leadership over that community - nor would they neccessarily be trusted to lead, even by those who trust them to act responsibly. My sense is that at this point in time relatively few people around the world are looking to China for leadership in many areas, and recognize China has a pronounced tendency toward non-intervention and the generally peaceful and businesslike pursuit of self-interest.

It might be better if China assumed a few more of the complex responsibilities of global governance you mention. But if one has to choose between a country that errs on the side of intervention and one that errs on the side of non-intervention, surely the latter is preferable.

Posted by: Dan Kervick | May 29, 2007 at 06:56 PM

What most people report in a poll is often a reflection of what people do not know. One could easily make a strong case for India having a stronger economy than the PRC in 50 years. One can also very easily point out the aggressive policies of China:

1950 Invasion and brutal occupation of Tibet. Occupation categorized by ethnic cleansing.

1950 Korean War.

1958 Crisis over PRC military attacks on Quemoy and Mazu.

1962 Sino Indian Border War where China attacked India for the purpose of redrawing the map of the border by military force and succeeded.

1967 Two serious border clashes with India around Sikkim.

1969 Sino Soviet clash with USSR.

1979 Border War with Vietnam. More killed in this brief war than the US lost in Vietnam in 20 years.

1987 Sino-Indian Border Skirmish.

Not to mention all the other more minor military confrontations such as the 1990's aggression towards Taiwan during the Clinton Administration, occupation of disputed islands with Vietnam, Phill, etc. Crushing of internal revolts in 1958-9 in Tibet and 1990's throughout China, etc.

That many are not aware that China does have a strong history in redrawing it's borders by military force does not mean that because those same people do not view China as a possible future concern is not indicative of anything save ignorance.

China will eventually have the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd largest economy in the world. However, it's people do know something most of us forget. China is a brutal police state who's regime decided to increase the power of scope of the internal security forces to a large enough degree that the events of the 1990's are never repeated again. China not only created the Great Firewall of China but the technology is now being exported to other nations wishing to repress freedom. Thus the Chinese might sense that in the information age their society has long term competitive problems given the amount of isolation from the rest of the world due to the less than 100% open free exchange of ideas.

The better bet might be on India and the Chinese not only love but understand gambling.

Posted by: Lane Brody | May 30, 2007 at 04:46 AM

Thus the Chinese might sense that in the information age their society has long term competitive problems given the amount of isolation from the rest of the world due to the less than 100% open free exchange of ideas.

I'm not sure how much of a factor this might be in public attitudes, Lane, since only about 10% of the Chinese have internet access. I think the residual pessimism probably has more to do with the fact that there are many parts of China that have been relatively untouched by the economic boom, and whose impoverished people can't quite believe that China's wealth could ever surpass that of the vaunted capitalist millionaires they have heard so much about all their lives.

Posted by: Dan Kervick | May 30, 2007 at 07:49 AM

Everything is not about economics. The dictatorships of South Korea and Taiwan, among others, saw decades of very real economic growth where the average citizen became progressively better off and yet both nations are now functioning democracies.

The people of the PRC know they are not free. They know they receive limited information from outside, that the Party is both brutal and corrupt, and that there is not one sign that any of this is going to change. Repression is depressing. Maybe it's not enough to feel hopeful about making money when deep down you know you are still a slave.

The notion that it's all about economics is basic to many world views, but it still does not make it so. Not everyone can be bought off. Not everyone is content to live as a well off slave. People will revolt and suffer and live less well to achieve a measure of freedom.

So Dan I reject the underlying premise of your polite response. It's certainly possible that economic well being alone will be enough to placate the people of China over the long term. That is what the Party is betting on. History does not however support this. A free society is dynamic on many levels. This aspect of human behavior partly explains why India not China writes so much computer code. India is not as well off as China but it's society is more open.

There are ideas, notions, businesses, avenues of research, etc., that are more likely to be created in a free society. The PRC and other repressive regimes file very few patents and create very little. The PRC is not going to one day become an inventive and creative society while being ruled as a brutal police state. Thus there is a limit to how far China can advance economically.

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