Bush Likes Democracy but Doesn't Like Ibrahim al-Jaafari Posted by Shadi Hamid

I guess Bush didn’t get the memo that trying to oust or destabilize democratically-elected leaders and/or governments is probably not the best idea for a country which claims to be the world’s purveyor of democratic ideals. Doesn't exactly do wonders for our credibility. There seems to be a very troubling trend developing here which is part of the overall democracy promotion backlash which both Derek and I have discussed in previous posts.

First, it started with Hamas, which won a commanding majority in January’s surprisingly clean and violence-free elections, forcing the Bush administration engage in dubious verbal acrobatics. It certainly makes sense to not give financial assistance to a government led by a party which refuses to renounce terrorism. Many have made the point that just as Palestinians have the right to elect Hamas, we have the right to not give a Hamas-led government money. That is one thing. It is quite another matter, however, to actively work toward the destabilization of an elected government, which is apparently what the Bush administration was seriously considering as early as two weeks after the election. The logic went that "destabilization" efforts would make governing impossible for Hamas. This would force Mahmoud Abbas to call new elections, which Fatah would presumably win. Status quo ante restored, Scrowcroft style. (See this excellent post by Andrew Sullivan).

Well, fast forward two months and apparently, we now want to get rid of Ibrahim al-Jaafari, an Islamist who also happens to be democratically elected.

Yes, Ibrahim al-Jaafari has been, to say the least, doing a rather lacklustre job as Iraqi Prime Minister, but that is beside the point. He was elected. Either he work with him or work around him, but we shouldn’t actively try to bring him down.

So all the grandiose talk of “momentous choices that will echo for generations” has devolved not just into realpolitik, but into something qualitatively worse. When Bush raises our expectations and convinces us that his administration cares about Arab democracy and then behaves in a way that is in total contradistinction to its words, then it is cause for not just concern, but for profound disappointment. 

(Note to self: Whenever you feel like destabilizing foreign governments, don't tell the The New York Times).

Comments

[Swopa]

I believe this has far more to do with Moqtada al-Sadr, whose support brought about Jaafari's renomination, than Jaafari himself.

Here's a [url=http://www.needlenose.com/node/view/2796]fairly thorough analysis[/url] of the various political dynamics that I wrote this morning. Basically, the U.S. was hoping that fear & loathing of Sadr would pry SCIRI (and even Sistani) away from the Team Shiite concept, but it hasn't worked -- as much as they distrust Sadr's intentions, they distrust ours more. Which is a perversely impressive feat, when you think about it.

[Swopa]

Ooops, wrong formatting style. I shall say five "Preview is my friends" and beg forgiveness.

Here's the link I tried to give above.

[Cal]

This is really reminiscent of JFK and the Diem coup. Our leaders are blinded by the fact that they want Jaafari gone, and they don't seem to have given much thought to who will replace him. The only certain outcome is that we'll weaken the very gov't we need to prevent disaster.

Is Abdel Mehdi so vastly superior that we're willing to increase the short-term chances of civil war, just so that he can lead the gov't?

Here's the CIA's conclusion on how the overthrow of the Diem gov't turned out:

The coup's consequences spelled disaster:... the coup indeed turned out to be just the first of others that followed; and Saigon's subsequent rulers proved even less able than Diem and Nhu. Washington's policy managers now had to find some other expedient that might keep our Saigon ally from collapsing. The answer to which they stumbled, months later, was to take over the management of the war with direct and greatly expanded US air and ground force participation.

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