Pollwatcher's Corner Posted by Heather Hurlburt

With most news coverage focusing on the President's crumbling ratings, here are five recent poll results you might NOT have noticed:

1.  Dems pull even on terrorism, national security:  both draw the confidence of 42 percent of the public in the most recent Washington Post/ABC poll.  (Nb.  the last time the Dems got close on these sorts of comparisons was during the Kosovo conflict.)  On Iraq, Dems do 11 percentage points better than the Republicans, 48-37.

2.  Support for "extreme" options in Iraq -- an immediate pullout or more troops -- remains small.  Last week's USA Today/CNN Gallup poll shows 19 percent favoring an immediate pullout, 33 percent favoring a pullout in a year's time, 38 percent says pullout in "as long as it takes" and 7 percent calling for more troops.  Yes, that gives you 57 percent who say the troops should be out within a year.  Another way of looking at it is that it gives you 71 percent who think the troops should not leave in a cut-and-run way -- perhaps who hope that something can still be accomplished in Iraq.

3.  Support for the UN is way down in the last four years, say Pew's Center for People and the Press and the Council on Foreign Relations in a quadrennial poll.  Looks like the public is mirroring the expert "Stockholm Syndrome" -- we've heard so many times that the UN has failed, at tasks we wanted it to fail at, that we believe it -- I wrote about last month.

4.  Tolerance for Other Great Powers is Up.  The CFR press release about the Pew/CFR poll touts a "revival of isolationism."  Their number is high, but not unprecedented -- it was matched at the end of Vietnam and the end of the Cold War.  A more revealing number -- every category of influentials they surveyed registered a drop in the proportion who think the US should be first among equals or unrivaled in power, except... foreign affairs professionals.  Hmmm.

5.  China.  I'm fascinated -- and need to look more deeply -- at the Pew results saying that both experts and the general public are considerably less likely to see China as a key threat than they were fouor years ago.  If you consider how often the general public is being fed the idea that China's factories represent the key threat to our livelihoods, this suggests --again -- that when it gets space to think, the public's views are much more nuanced than it gets credit for.  

Comments

[Greg Priddy]

It good to hear that Democrats have pulled even in terms of public confidence on national security.

It's also interesting to note that public support for democracy promotion as a "top priority" for U.S. foreign policy is down sharply from 2001, particularly among the CFR members who were polled. The "top priority" percentage had never been over 30% among the general public, but after falling from 44% to 18% among CFR members, it's now lower at the elite level than among the general public.

Hardly a resounding endorsement of the sort of "muscular Wilsonianism" espoused by the Truman Project, et. al.

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