Cutting a Deal with the Arab League on Iraq Posted by Suzanne Nossel

So the Iraqi leadership was ready to do what the US Congress was not:  call for a definite timetable for US withdrawal from Iraq.   

So how about this:  let's capitalize on this week's Iraqi conference resolution to cut a deal with the Arab League.  The League sponsored the Cairo conference that led to the Iraqi leadership saying they want us out. 

Astute observers including Milton Viorst and Jeff Laurenti have been talking about the potentially critical role the League could play in convening a Contact Group (see Derek's analogy to Bosnia) to broker a deal that would end the insurgency and create a unitary Iraq.  Given the League's checkered record, it may seem like a longshot, but with local factions now preferring the prospect of unfettered chaos to that of continued American intrusion, its worth a shot.

Why not approach League President Amr Moussa and key Arab States to propose that that if the Arab League steps up, pulls together a group of Iraq's neighbors willing to help prevent the slide to mayhem, and engages in a committed effort to broker a political compromise, that in return the US will plan its getaway and offer all manner of support for the Arab effort?   This could fit in neatly with the proposal of reverse benchmarks for remaining in Iraq that floated the other day.

The Administration has missed an awful lot of diplomatic exit ramps en route to its current situation in Iraq.   This one may not lead anywhere, but at this point any option that has the potential of allowing America out while preventing Iraq from becoming a failed state is well worth a try.

Comments

[Captain Morgan]

The Arab League "roadmap" envisions an initial conference with new govt. players in Baghdad next Feb. or March
(see: http://www.almendhar.com/english_7873/news.aspx ).
Will be interesting to see USG reaction. Is "feeding" the same as giving a "wink, wink, nudge, nudge"? With DOD already talking withdrawal for "brigades" in beginning of 2006 and the possible legitimacy of a new Iraqi govt., the Demohawks better watch out or the GOP will outmaneuver them just in time for '06 midterms, seizing a credible "mission accomplished" slogan.

[praktike]

I don't think the US trusts the AL and I'm not sure I would either, frankly.

[Cal]

Praktike, I agree that the Bush administration doesn't trust the AL -- many of the neocons advocated the war because it would weaken Arab solidarity, such as it is -- but what do we really have to lose? Since we've jettisoned the goal of democracy and would just like to prevent anarchy -- what's wrong with working with the AL, which also has an interest in stability?

BTW Suzanne, Robert Dreyfuss has a good article in the Prospect about our failure to attend the Cairo conference, and how the Bush administ'n continues to shun diplomacy in Iraq. I don't think his recommendation for the Dems is realistic, but his analysis dovetails nicely with your post.

[Dan Kervick]

I think we have to be realistic here. Surely any US administration would be in a very delicate and difficult spot, diplomatically speaking, with regard to this Arab League conference, and Robert Dreyfuss's suggestion that the US might simply come out at this early time and openly embrace the Arab League track is politically naive. I'm very glad this separate process is underway, and believe it is a very promising development. But any US government facilitation of this effort will probably have to remain in back channels for a while.

The conference did not have the official support of major Shiite parties, including SCIRI. And since these parties form a large part of the current Iraqi government we have ushered into existence, and their people make up a sizeable portion of the military and security forces we are training, then the US can hardly just drop these Shiites on their heads and go running off to Cairo with the Arab League. Bringing in the mostly Sunni Arab League raises contentious regional issues including relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and by extention their proxies inside Iraq. Certainly one potential dimension of these new efforts is that they constitute a power play by Sunni Arabs conerned about growing Iranian and Shiite influence in Iraq and the broader region.

And after committing itself so heavily to the ongoing political and constitutional process in Iraq, the US administration can hardly be expected to throw up its hands publicly, and throw in its lot with a process that seems designed to do an end run around those same officially constituted Iraqi institutions - at least not until the alternative shows it is definitely going somewhere.

The US is also stuck with its insistence that it will not negotiate with terrorists. Since the Bush administration has continued to push the dishonest propaganda line that the insurgency is entirely composed of "terrorists", they will have to find some way of finessing this problem if they intend to go ahead and negotiate anyway with leaders of the resistence. The problem is that the US refuses to negotiate with the "terrorists", while the Shiites refuse to negotiate with Baathists. So, somehow a way needs to be found of setting up a means whereby the US and the Shiites can negotiate with people who can actually deliver the Sunni Arabs to a settlement, but with some political cover.

The leaders of the resistance, of course, would like to negotiate with the US directly. That would elevate their own stature and put them into a position of declaring victory if they successfully negotiate a US withdrawl. The US would likely prefer that negotiations with the Sunni Arab resistance toward a settlement leading to a US withdrawl occur in the context of a deal between the resistance and the Iraqi government. The government can then decalre victory and ask the US to leave, or suggest a timetable for leaving, and the US will not be put in the public position of having "lowered itself" to negotiate its own escape from Iraq.

Finally, it's hard to imagine any US administration jumping eagerly into a new political process from a conference that produces a final statement according to which Iraqis have an "inherent right of resistance" against the US occupation. No doubt that was a crucial concession by the Kurds and Shiites that will help move this process forward. But it also necessitated that the US will have to keep the Arab League work at arms length diplomatically - at least for a while. Whether its true or not, no US government is going to say publicly: "Yes, we are invaders and occupiers, and our enemies are people exercising their inherent right to self-defense."

The point here is to figure out a way of stabilizing Iraq and getting out of there. It's not about partisan domestic wish fulfillment here inside the US. Even if by its actions the Bush administration tacitly admits that many of its critics were right, and they are now looking for a way out of Iraq, they are never going to say: "our critics were right and we are looking for a way out of Iraq." They are going to continue to attack their critics, even while following some of their advice. Unfortunately, that's just politics. We critics can attack back and respond in kind. But let's get over this crybaby stuff about how unfair and hypocritical it is that the administration criticizes us, and the Vice President calls us "reprehensible" and such on the right-wing mashed potato circuit.

[PrahaPartizan]

Who in the current or prospective Sh'ite dominated Iraqi government would be willing to accept a massive armed contingent from Sunni Arab League countries? How would they even be able to persuade their Iranian patrons to allow the Arab League to reinsert itself into Iraq when victory seems close at hand for Teheran? Those seem to be the two major stumbling blocks confronting this particular recommendation. Just because the hawks need a plan like this to save face in this debacle doesn't mean that it is even likely doable. Just clapping harder and louder doesn't bring success any closer.

[J Thomas]

"We critics can attack back and respond in kind. But let's get over this crybaby stuff about how unfair and hypocritical it is that the administration criticizes us, and the Vice President calls us "reprehensible" and such on the right-wing mashed potato circuit.'

Are you saying that calling the administration unfair and hypocritical is not an effective attack?

If it's a workable attack, why not use it? Let them call it crybaby stuff particularly if you can express it in a way that sounds far from that.

[Dan Kervick]

Are you saying that calling the administration unfair and hypocritical is not an effective attack?

I don't find it particularly effective myself. Perhaps others will perceive it differently, but it strikes me as weak.

When Cheney calls us reprehensible, or suggests we are un-American or whatever, I think we should respond by saying he is a a lying SOB, who presided over a gang of liars in the lead-up to the war, and that his demonstrably weak judgment and gross incompetence, and that of his administration, are a dire threat to US national security. Put him on the defensive. But Dems often seem to respond by playing the patsy and saying, in effect, "it's so unfair and hypocritical and hurtful to call us those things."

[Global Byron]

"The Administration has missed an awful lot of diplomatic exit ramps en route to its current situation in Iraq. This one may not lead anywhere, but at this point any option that has the potential of allowing America out while preventing Iraq from becoming a failed state is well worth a try"

> Quite frankly I'm thinking that the state of Iraq a year from now isnt going to be anything different than today's situation. You're going to have a govt that is corrupt, weak ( economically & militarily), heavily factioned, and without significant hearts & minds of the people because everyday loyalities will win out over people they only see on the TV ( when they have electrical power). Yes the factionalism may be kept below the threshold of overt civil war as long as we have "significant" military forces in the area but its a false
reality that we are trying to preserve = a united Iraq. Yes, we have a lot of prestige and commitment at stake in making sure the next series of elections are successful. But (again) we are creating a illusionary election milestone that we can fool ourselves into believing that we " did everything we could" and " gave the people every opportunity" before we left ( them). Its the old " Peace With Honor" routine, that we used in another quagmire. So the democratic Iraq struggles but finally becomes the " failed state" we all dread. Oh well, we'll just jump right back in again -right? ( I don't think so). So if we do some "out of the box" thinking - - What are the consequences to the US ( and the immediate neighbors) if the partitioning of Iraq occurs? To some extent, the net impact to the US would probably be a "wash".. We keep wanting to preserve the " status quo" in the Iraqi model because we think the British Empire had a good idea? For what reason then? Oil? Yes if Iraq becomes a failed state- we will have egg on our face but at least we wont have the same level of casualties each day -every day Obviously, the US could expect a warm(er) welcome from the Kurds if we were invited to maintain a significant military presence there ( since they need us too) and I'll bet we're already talking to them. The DOD drawdown proposals IMHO are not only intended to put pressure on the Iraqis but are to signal to the WH that the rank and file have had enough and will not allow itself to be gutted for the sake of a neocon vision of world democracy.

[Matthew]

I think that the U.S. should pull out exactly as the Iraqi government wants us to. Maybe after the country bursts into flames they will realize that we aren't so bad after all and ask for our help again. Maybe the U.S. should just let them self destruct and drift into total chaos. It seems to be the Middle-Eastern Dream....

[Qaiser Khan Kakar]

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said in islam there will be 72 subdivision , only one section will go to Heaven then why should we not accuse each other sects which is based on the 05 Principles of Islam.
2. Those sects which dint come under 05 principles of Islam should be declared Non islamic and it should be carried out with official declaration.
3.The comments made by the american congess representative as Makkah and Madina to be Bombed by Nuclear weapons why it has not resisted at the UN as there were many organisation of Islam OIC,GCC,Arab league Etc.What are the measures we have taken for the threat by KSA and other OIC members.
4.We should not be misguided by the constant commets of Islamic laws by the Non Islamic relegions we should follow and to implement it effectively, there should be Defence Projects among member countries and OIC espe Iran, Pakistan, Libya etc.
5.Crime should be delat with Iron hand who ever it may be we can show the world the effect and prosperity of the Islamic law.
6. In islam there is no hereditary rule the same should be known the rulers who rule for decades without giving the chance for other clans or groups which is very dangerous for internal security.
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The islamic nations know a days has become a honey moon destinations for the non muslims they should respect the law of the land when they visit the country, there are agents in guise of tourist and press reporters and missionaries
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[Momin]

As salam alikum o rahmatullahi o barakatahu
Dear brothers in Islam

in shor i want to say
1.our Last prophet Mohammad ur rasululla sale ala wa sallam
said in islam there will be 72 subdivision , only one section will go to Heaven then why should we accuse each other sects which is based on the 05 Principles of Islam.
2. Those sects which dint come under 05 principles of Islam should be declared Non islamic and it should be carried out with official declaration.
3.The comments made by the american congess representative as Makkah and Madina to be Bombed by Nuclear weapons why it has not resisted at the UN as there were many organisation of Islam OIC,GCC,Arab league Etc.What are the measures we have taken for the threat by KSA and other OIC members.
4.We should not be misguided by the constant commets of Islamic laws by the Non Islamic relegions we should follow and to implement it effectively, there should be Defence Projects among member countries and OIC espe Iran, Pakistan, Libya etc.
5.Crime should be delat with Iron hand who ever it may be we can show the world the effect and prosperity of the Islamic law.
6. In islam there is no hereditary rule the same should be known the rulers who rule for decades without giving the chance for other clans or groups which is very dangerous for internal security.
7.I request to implement the islamic values in education and science and technology and economic.
Dont allow ecessive liberty for the non beliver or non muslims in Islamic nations like giving liberty for idol worship, Vactions for Crismas Purchasse and permanet sellement for non muslims etc.
The islamic nations know a days has become a honey moon destinations for the non muslims they should respect the law of the land when they visit the country, there are agents in guise of tourist and press reporters and missionaries
we should come to the formula of sectarian divide which is spreading like wild fire
Beware of more conspiracies of Eurpoeans,USA and Israil
Kindly think

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