Waiting for Ghaddafi... Posted by Heather Hurlburt

A few thoughts as we watch to see what happens next in Tripoli:

Many of the people celebrating in Benghazi and other opposition strongholds would not be alive if not for the UN-mandated, NATO-led military mission.  That is the profound success of what the international community has done since March.  What the Libyans -- and the international comminity -- make of that remains to be seen.

The Libyan Transitional National Council is not ready -- and neither is the international community.  Dan Serwer, who has seen transitional governments up close and ugly, makes a good quick argument over at Peacefare about what the UN in the first place (a framework and commitments for how former combatants are treated), the EU (a force to protect ex-combatants, economic aid) and the US and others should move immediately to do to help make this come out well.  He and the Council on Foreign Relations put out a longer report on the subject last week -- but he also lays out tonight why his comprehensive approach is unlikely to be implemented.

Sic semper tyrannis.  Looking ahead to next month's UN General Assembly, the shift since last year is momentous.  No Ghaddafi tent show along the East River.  No Mubarak.  No Ben Ali, no Saleh.  Rumors are flying in Teheran about whether Mahmoud Ahmedinejad will attend, or be arrested; if he does attend, he will be a conspicuous symbol of an anti-democratic regime, rather than the standard-bearer of regional pride he has sought to be.  It also seems unlikely that Syria's President Assad will make an appearance -- although his statement tonight seemed calculated to make sure everyone in the world thinks of him in the same breath as Ghaddafi.

Huge minuses -- and pluses -- for the cause of "Responsibility to Protect" and ability of the broad international community to intervene to stop mass killing and tyranny.  Attention has been focused, and rightly so, on how the strong identification of  the UN-mandated protection mission, NATO, and attempts to overthrow the Ghaddafi regime may have done much to discredit the idea that the internaitonal community can intervene effectively and justly when mass killing is threatened.  On the positive side, though, we see a new imediacy of  role for the International Criminal Court, with the rebels opting to work with them on the detention of Ghaddafi's sons -- and who, even John Bolton, could argue with that?

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