"I'm not Dead Yet!" Posted by Heather Hurlburt

Peter Beinart has a thought-provoking article up this morning proclaiming the death of neo-conservatism.  I think he is at least premature, for several reasons:

Conservatives lack a coherent alternative.  Yes, Ron Paul is polling well and he has a coherent alternative which we wonks refer to as "offshore balancing;" and yes, neocon standard-bearers Sens. McCain and Graham are getting little resonance for their calls for a military response to Syria and more, faster military response to Libya.  But every time a GOP presidential candidate, declared or putative, has started to edge away from neocon orthodoxy on Afghanistan (Romney, Huntsman, Barbour) he has been pushed back to the standard GOP line -- or out of relevance.  The realist conservative foreign policy community is either quietly advising Huntsman, even more quietly trying to advise Romney, or just sitting back and wishing that Mayor Bloomberg, Governor Daniels or Governor Barbour would reconsider.  Recent reports that Governor Perry is reading Henry Kissinger and consulting with Don Rumsfeld; and that he opposes "military adventurism" but also thinks there might be "a military solution to a country like Iran" sum up conservatives' intellectual drift on the central questions of the nature and future of American power.

Tea Party lacks a foreign policy. It's become popular to say that neoconservatism is gone from the GOP because the Tea Party opposes it.  But that's not exactly true.  The Tea Party, being a movement rather than a political party, encompasses a variety of heterodox foreign policy views, from neoconservative to neoisolationist, as Josh Rogin and others have written. 

Bankruptcy is not the same as death.  Democracy Arsenal's own Michael Cohen wrote to me that neoconservatism died when Hamas won the Palestinian elections.  Commenters on Beinart's piece argue that it died a-borning in George W. Bush's first term.  But those were moments in which neoconservatism failed to deliver on its promises.  The gold standard, trickle-down economics, and others one could name are also intellectual approaches which still exert some considerable influence despite having been found wanting in the reality-based environment.   One can also make the argument that Center for American Progress' Peter Juul does, which is to say that the Bush Administration was not truly neoconservative, and that therefore the doctrine is not dead as it has never been tried.  (This last argumentcan also of course be made about Marxism...) 

Most dangerous when cornered.  Our neocon competitors in the intellectual sphere don't think they're defeated.  I don't hear them talking about moving to New Zealand or taking up organic farming as an alternative livelihood.  Indeed, they seem highly-motivated.  And in general it is dangerous to underestimate the staying power of determined, organized, savvy individuals -- or of simple, cheerful explanatory ideas in the US political psyche.  Remember, the neocon moment offered us a way to feel good about ourselves after national lows in the 1970s and on 9-11.  And if you don't think we're heading for a new low in the national psyche, I want some of what you're drinking.

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