Obama Nuclear Arms Reduction Blamed for Proliferation Threat Posted by David Shorr

The world faces mounting threats of nuclear proliferation in Iran, North Korea, and potentially Saudi Arabia. Do you want to know why? Well according to Peter Brookes of the Heritage Foundation, one major cause is the US administration's own nuclear arms control policy. (Hat tip to Nonproliferation Review editor Stephen Schwartz.) Peter connects the dots for us in his lead paragraph:

President Obama's "lead by example" nuclear-nonproliferation policy of strategic-weapons cuts and treaties (such as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia) isn't having the desired effect. In fact, the "fallout" is quite the opposite: All the news points toward a more nuclear world.

Brookes' New York Post column goes on to catalogue a number of worrisome developments and prospects. What's missing from the piece, though, is an explanation of how reductions in US and Russian arsenals of thousands of n-weapons worsens matters in the Mideast or Northeast Asia. All Brookes offers is this breezy observation:

So, while Team Obama spends its time focusing on downsizing our strategic forces and future, others are upsizing theirs. Coincidence? Probably not.

What's the nonproliferation strategy here? If the United States kept all of our nuclear weapons, then Iran, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia wouldn't pursue military nuclear programs? Does nuclear nonproliferation hinge on America's ability to incinerate adversaries 50 times over rather than, say, merely 10? Or is Brookes saying that the administration needs to spend less time on arms control and more on nonproliferation. Last time I checked, the Obama administration has been doggedly cajoling other governments to impose heightened unilateral sanctions against Iran -- after lining up votes for multilateral sanctions, that is (on the latter, ditto North Korea).

Brookes' seems to take the radical and naive view that the size of America's nuclear arsenal will in itself prevent new countries from obtaining nuclear weapons. It's a hyper-realist idea, I guess, that with enough military power we can cow others into submission. It doesn't help explain why North Korea made it's most dramatic nuclear arms progress during the previous administration, but I digress.

Where Brookes computes the raw balance of military forces, the policy and political mainstream view it as a matter of the international community's standards of acceptable behavior. Fortunately, nuclear nonproliferation isn't merely a question of doing what America says; the taboo against nuclear weapons was established in the 1970 Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation (NPT) and is a pillar of the international order.

But the United States can't have it both ways. Along with the requirement for non-nuclear weapon nations to remain that way, the NPT called on the world's nuclear "haves" to disarm. In the decades since the NPT was adopted, the US, Russia, and other nuclear powers have made modest progress in reducing their arsenals. They could get away with it because the treaty's nonoproliferation provisions are more specific than those on disarmament, but ultimately there is a classic problem of hypocrisy faced by the do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do posture Peter seems to recommend. Bottom line: meaningful nuclear arms reductions are the price the United States must pay to maintain our international credibility, moral authority, and support. 

Looking back at last December's Senate debate on ratification of the US-Russian New START treaty, I'm glad to say that Peter's approach represents the far-Right rather than the sober conservative view within the GOP. Tennessee's Senator Bob Corker endorsed the treaty's importance for nonproliferation, and Senator George Voinovich of Ohio specifically highlighted the need for Russia's help in multilateral pressure on Iran.

Photo: John Uhles

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