A Sensible Way Forward for the US in Afghanistan Posted by Michael Cohen

Today in the Los Angeles Times, fellow DA blogger Michael Hanna and I have a new piece on Afghanistan the lays out the need for the Obama Administration to adopt a viable political strategy for Afghanistan - and one that operates in concert with our ongoing military strategy:

As President Obama's July deadline to begin drawing down troops from Afghanistan approaches, the debate in Washington is focused almost exclusively on how rapidly the U.S. military presence should be reduced. But the emphasis on troop levels ignores the more important question of what the administration's political strategy should be for ending the war.

There is no question that the U.S. must leave Afghanistan eventually. But withdrawal must be done in a way that prevents chaos and ensures that America's interests in the region are protected. Current U.S. military tactics, however, are often operating at cross-purposes to the establishment of an effective political strategy for ending the war — a political strategy that to date has been poorly constructed.

Supporters of the current approach argue that the military campaign is putting increased pressure on the Taliban, and that with just a little more force, we can push insurgents to the negotiating table. But this is a dubious assumption, and the U.S. does not have the luxury to see if it's correct.

Although the Taliban presence has lessened in certain areas of the country, its members still enjoy protection in havens across the border in Pakistan. It remains a resilient fighting force able to launch sophisticated military operations, and the predatory behavior of the Afghan government continues to push a steady stream of recruits into the arms of the insurgency. Meanwhile, the Afghan army and police are nowhere near ready to independently take over security responsibilities.

Each of these strategic impediments means that the military's recent gains on the battlefield are simply not sustainable. Army Gen. David H. Petraeus has noted that the situation in Afghanistan cannot be resolved by military might alone. Yet the U.S. military remains committed to a policy that relies far too heavily on the stick rather than on the carrot.

Even though the administration has reportedly initiated secret, serious high-level contacts with representatives of the Taliban and has touted nuanced shifts in diplomatic language (such as Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's February speech that seemed to discard preconditions for negotiations with the Taliban), far less consideration has been given to how the United States can encourage a shift in the Taliban's perceptions and behavior. For too long the U.S. has acted as if force is the only effective means for communicating with the Taliban.

Fighting must continue, but talking and engagement are even more urgent. Although recent exploratory talks with credible Taliban leaders represent an encouraging breakthrough, these openings could be for naught if the military campaign is not waged in concert with this political initiative.

Read the whole thing here

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The predatory behavior of the Afghan government continues to push a steady stream of recruits into the arms of the insurgency.

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I believe the President Obama realizes the profound truth, that the position of the United States as a Mediator Nation is a position of great responsibility. Many the problems of today are a result of the Bush-two administrations switch from Afghanistan to Iraq.

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The main obstacles to achieving any peace in Afghanistan seems to be hawkish government officials and the military, who wants a complete victory over the Taliban. Unfortunately with the selection of Leon Panetta to led the Defense Department, the military has someone, who will rubber stamp their ongoing efforts in Afghanistan.

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Recent contacts made through official and unofficial channels suggest that there is genuine interest among some portion of the insurgency in a negotiated settlement. However, like any political movement, the Taliban will have to sell de-escalation and potential compromise to its own fighters and constituencies. Right now, the United States is offering little to convince Taliban followers that a political approach could achieve a realization of any of their core goals. Moreover, continued harsh military offensives hold the possibility of future ruin, as they risk devastating the ranks of potential interlocutors and radicalizing a younger generation of rising Taliban leaders.

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