Further Confirmation That Our Strategy in Afghanistan is Not Working Posted by Michael Cohen

One of the key elements about US policy in Afghanistan that nearly all sides seem to agree upon is that without success in standing up the Afghan government and without success in getting Pakistan to turn on the Afghan Taliban safe havens in their country - the mission will likely fail.

With that as a starting point, it makes reading the latest White House report on Afghanistan/Pakistan acutely depressing reading. To be sure there is very little here that can be considered good news - for every possible step forward, there are one or two steps back. And what's more there is very little indication that the fledgling progress we have made is sustainable - either in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

But on the issue of safe havens and the performance of the Karzai government it is particularly distressing - and speaks to the failures of the current strategy.

First on safe havens. Much of the media focus of the report is on the challenges facing Pakistan in going after Pakistan Taliban militants. But from the perspective of US policy in Afghanistan, this is a sideshow - the real issue is the sanctuaries and here the report has nothing good to say:

The denial of extremist safe havens in Pakistan cannot be achieved through military means alone, but must continue to be advanced by effective development strategies.

Actually let me revise that statement - the report has basically nothing to say on this issue (as the above sentence suggests). There is a great deal about how the US is laying the foundation for a strategic partnership with Pakistan "based on mutual respect and trust" but no sense of when or even whether the Pakistani government will shift their strategic calculus against the Afghan Taliban. And as press reporting suggests there has been little progress on this front. Until there is, military success in Afghanistan will be hard to achieve and even harder to sustain. That the report basically punts on that question is telling.

How about the Karzai government? Here the report is more explicit, regrettably so. From July to December 2010, the report says that progress on building the capacity of the Afghan government is "static" - which basically means very little improvement at all. Indeed, the report notes that on the sub-national level (which is more critical to the US war-fighting effort than the national level) progress is particularly non-existent. Recruiting for district or provincial offices remains poor, the Afghan government has shown little inclination to take on corruption - and while security improvements are cited, the report does note that the security situation in the north has actually worsened.  (Of course, if one wants to draw a verdict on Hamid Karzai they can also consider his appalling behavior that led indirectly to the horrific killings of UN workers in Mazar-i-Sharif last week.)

The best the report can point to is "modest" improvements in training of the ANSF, but the force is still deeply dependent on ISAF forces to conduct operations and attrition rates, while better are still high.

In short, there is very little positive to report - but in the areas most crucial to the current strategy, progress is basically non-existent or fledgling. Now I have a feeling that an email will be headed my way soon after I publish this post that talks about security improvements as a first step forward and strengtening Afghan capacity as the next step. But to be honest, I'm not seeing any reason to believe that this second is possible (it's always been the most intractable element of our strategy and one where US influence is the most limited).

This question this report should raise is how much longer do we try to do the impossible (get Pakistan to adjust its strategic calculus vis-a-vis the Taliban and the Karzai government to be something they aren't) before we shift our strategy to what actually is possible?

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The situation in Pakistan has gone from bad to worse as a direct consequence of the U.S. war raging on the Afghan border. U.S. policy has now carried the Afghan war over the border into Pakistan with its incursions, drone bombings and assassinations -- the classic response to a failure to deal with insurgency in one country. Remember the invasion of Cambodia to save Vietnam?

-- The deeply entrenched Islamic and tribal character of Pashtun rule in the Northwest Frontier Province in Pakistan will not be transformed by invasion or war. The task requires probably several generations to start to change the deeply embedded social and psychological character of the area. War induces visceral and atavistic response.

-- Pakistan is indeed now beginning to crack under the relentless pressure directly exerted by the U.S. Anti-American impulses in Pakistan are at high pitch, strengthening Islamic radicalism and forcing reluctant acquiescence to it even by non-Islamists.

Only the withdrawal of American and NATO boots on the ground will begin to allow the process of near-frantic emotions to subside within Pakistan, and for the region to start to cool down. Pakistan is experienced in governance and is well able to deal with its own Islamists and tribalists under normal circumstances; until recently, Pakistani Islamists had one of the lowest rates of electoral success in the Muslim world.

But U.S. policies have now driven local nationalism, xenophobia and Islamism to combined fever pitch. As Washington demands that Pakistan redeem failed American policies in Afghanistan, Islamabad can no longer manage its domestic crisis.

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