Sad truth: Aggression, not repression, hurting Chinese soft power Posted by Jacob Stokes

Last Friday’s Washington Post featured an op-ed by Joseph Nye titled, “China’s repression undoes its charm offensive.” Nye’s argument isn’t as simplistic as the headline, but it’s still based on a faulty premise. The piece begins with Nye explaining how he was asked to give a speech in China on his construct of “soft power.” He says the speech “was before the series of revolutions roiling the Middle East, in whose aftermath China is clamping down on the Internet and jailing human rights lawyers, once again torpedoing its soft-power campaign.”

I think Nye gets cause and effect wrong here. First of all, in the context of Asia and China, the definition of “soft power” has been broadened to basically mean power gained through any non-military means. As Joshua Kurlantzick explained back in 2006, “When Joseph Nye coined the term soft power, he originally used a more limited definition, excluding investment and aid and formal diplomacy—more traditional, harder forms of influence. In the context of Asia today, both China and its neighbors enunciate a broader idea of soft power, the idea that soft power implies all elements outside of the security realm, including investment and aid.” China doesn’t have much soft power in the way Nye originally defined the term; its soft power is largely of the Kurlantzick type.

Nye doesn’t acknowledge this broadening of the definition, the practical effect of which changes the nature and source of China’s soft power, and by extension, what can undermine it. Freedom advocates -- including yours truly -- would like it if China’s soft power suffered from the CCP’s violations of human rights and freedom of speech (the brutality of which has been documented here and here). But the reality is that China’s earlier charm offensive was largely based on sweetheart economic deals with nations who welcomed Chinese influence and investment precisely because it didn’t come with humanitarian and good governance strings attached. Chinese cultural education and frequent participation in regional organizations may have helped drum up some goodwill, but they weren’t the main drivers of affinity towards the Middle Kingdom. Countries become friends with China because it pays to be friends with China.

Large investments with no strings attached cultivated the sort of soft power that Kurlantzick lays out. Those investments fit into China’s “peaceful rise” strategy, which aims to project a China focused on stability, economic growth and trade – not military power. In contrast to goodwill won through economic investment, the pull of China’s culture, language or values was minimal. Therefore, it doesn’t follow that the Chinese domestic crackdown has caused the decline in its soft power. Domestic rights were not the source of that power to begin with.

This is not to say that attitudes towards China among its neighbors haven’t soured. But those losses stem from China’s external actions during the past year rather than internal political crackdowns. Belligerence over territorial claims in the South China Sea, angry statements towards U.S. joint military exercises with South Korea and the unveiling of the prototype J-20 “stealth” fighter plane during Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s visit, among other incidents, have spooked China’s neighbors. Those provocations have led countries in the region to question China’s peaceful intentions and hedge by reinvigorating ties to the U.S.

China’s actions sent the signal that it has abandoned, or at least strayed from, the doctrine of “peaceful rise.” Most regional players were, and are, happy to accept Chinese soft (economic) power if they believe China isn’t interested in using its growing military power to coerce them. Once trust is undermined though, the goodwill engendered by investment quickly dries up. The headline of Nye’s piece should have read “China’s belligerence undoes its charm offensive.” Faced with a China willing to throw its weight around, countries in the region don’t feel very charmed.

Regrettably, China’s domestic sins have done little to sully its image – at least among those with whom China exercised “soft power” in the first place: developing and regional countries. Few of those countries saw any problems with China’s human rights record to being with, or at least those weren’t the defining issues in the relationship. The reason China’s standing is plummeting is that it’s no longer seen as a benign actor in the region. Given those things, Nye’s arguments – both that Chinese soft power is based on cultural efforts and that Chinese domestic actions have undermined that power – misunderstand the dynamics in play.

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This is not to say that attitudes towards China among its neighbors haven’t soured. But those losses stem from China’s external actions during the past year rather than internal political crackdowns. Belligerence over territorial claims in the South China Sea, angry statements towards U.S. joint military exercises with South Korea and the unveiling of the prototype J-20 “stealth” fighter plane during Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s visit, among other incidents, have spooked China’s neighbors. Those provocations have led countries in the region to question China’s peaceful intentions and hedge by reinvigorating ties to the U.S.

China’s actions sent the signal that it has abandoned, or at least stra

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I kinda expected a better analysis than this. Excluding analysis of China's business connections -- probably its largest form of influence -- seems a rather huge hole in this piece.

And as for the Shanghai Expo being a success, pretty much every one I know came away from it amazed by the lines more than the Expo. Seems the huge numbers of people were mostly Chinese citizens who were given tickets to make the place fill up.

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