The Emerging Consensus on Afghanistan Posted by The Editors

Maj. Gen. (ret.) Paul Eaton and DA's own Heather Hurlburt have written an op-ed in Politico laying out eight points of agreement that constitute a growing consensus on the way forward in Afghanistan. Basically, if the think tank community had done an interagency review, here's what it would have looked like:

As the Obama administration prepares to release its third strategy review of the war in Afghanistan, discussion of U.S. policy focuses on three conflicts. First, the actual military campaign against Afghan and Pakistani insurgents. Second, the political jockeying among Afghan President Hamid Karzai, his countrymen and international groups attempting to get a handle on massive corruption and poor governance. And third, the Washington shadowboxing between factions supporting “double down” or “out now.” 

Meanwhile, a growing progressive-realist-centrist axis of agreement has emerged. This fall, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Center for American Progress, the Afghanistan Study Group and theCenter for a New American Security all issued reports on Afghanistan that share a stunning amount of agreement. As a group, they offer a way forward that could be effective, affordable and sustainable.

Read the whole thing here.

Comments

[Don Bacon]

1. Negotiation is key.

Ambassador Holbrooke, Jan 28, 2010, wikileaks cable
"[Holbrooke] noted that the reintegration program is not a political negotiation designed to give Taliban elements a share of power. The United States cannot be a party to any such arrangement, in his view, because the Taliban is allied with the Al Qaeda and the social programs of the Taliban are unpalatable."(end cable)

2. Regional engagement is crucial.

Current intelligence estimates include the continuing bad news of Pakistan's support of the Taliban. A US-financed "partner" is supporting a US enemy.

What isn't covered well in the news reports is that Pakistan's position is promoted by the growing influence of India, Pakistan's arch-enemy, in Afghanistan.

General Mchrystal's Assessment, Aug 30, 2009:
"Indian political and economic influence is increasing in Afghanistan, including significant efforts and financial investment. In addition, the current Afghan government is perceived by Islamabad to be pro-Indian. While Indian activities largely bemnefit the Afghan people, increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India."

This was an area that Holbrooke, for all his strengths, apparently neglected.
from a wikileaks cable, Jan 2010:
"Holbrooke assured [India FM] Rao that he is in favor of Indian assistance programs in Afghanistan and is not influenced by what he hears in Islamabad."

3. Political progress and military drawdown are linked — and lack of the former should precipitate a faster, not slower, drawdown.

It's the Taliban that is making political progress, expanding their control through assassination and effective governance.

4. Pay attention to economics -- both Afghan and American.

Nation-building hasn't worked and won't work. The US embassy in Kabul is approaching 1400 people -- can you imagine the bureaucracy?

5. De-centralize political power to improve governance and fight corruption.

There is no political power to de-centarlize.

6. Training and funding police and military is central to a U.S. exit.

What is central is the ongoing problem of fielding a competent fighting and police force in an illiterate, warlord-governed country. The result is a "hashish army" with high desertion rates.

7. Define an acceptable end state.

The bogus "safe haven" argument means an endless expensive US occupation in a country where the Pakistan-supported Taliban will continue to be a factor.

8. U.S. metrics should focus on political and civilian progress, not just military.

Only one metric has been advanced, and that is an undefinable "victory".

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