We Don't See Eye to Eye with the ISI Posted by Eric Martin

Matt Yglesias makes an interesting observation regarding the perverse incentives that our involvement in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region over the past near-decade has given the Pakistani military/ISI: 

Whenever I read reports about US government officials being frustrated by Pakistan’s cooperation in fighting militant groups, I always wonder what it is policymakers are expecting will happen. Our current policy, after all, is to give the Pakistani military a lot of aid that’s predicated on the existence of an Islamist militant threat. If the threat went away, the aid would probably dry up and even if it didn’t dry up it would be redirected away from military matters—we wouldn’t be interested in explicitly funding an arms race with India.

But the incentives are even further skewed.  As is well known, important factions of Pakistan's strategic class view the militant groups that we find problematic as useful proxies vis-a-vis India in places like Kashmir, as well as in terms of creating strategic depth in Afghanistan (which, again, is seen as necessary to counter the superior territorial/population size of rival India).

Thus, not only are we creating a dynamic by which the Pakistani military/strategic class will only continue to receive massive infusions of aid for as long as militant groups remain prevalent and active in the region, but according to their (admittedly short-sighted) calculus, those militant groups are of strategic, long term value in terms of countering India. 

Given the Karzai government's warm relations with India, were the Pakistani military/ISI to truly clamp down on the Afghan Taliban and other militant groups given sanctuary within its borders, the net result would be a reduction in valuable US aid, as well as a strategic gain for India in Afghanistan (a nation that, prior to the US invasion, Pakistan enjoyed great influence through the Taliban government).

Thus, there is little reason to expect Pakistan to cooperate with us in terms of eradicating those militant groups regardless of our entreaties and their assurance.  In fact, as Max Fisher notes, the situation is getting worse: with Pakistan growing increasingly unsupportive of our mission - possibly willing to sacrifice US military aid in order to hasten our exit from the region.

After 9 years of Pakistani double-speak and inaction evincing this intransigence, the Obama administration should drop the charade, confront the reality of the situation, and adjust its strategy accordingly.  Pakistan is not going to support our mission when the end result will weaken Pakistan relative to India.  However, escalating a conflict with Pakistan in order to punish that state, or compel its cooperation, would be disastrous given the state of our already over-stretched and over-extended military. 

It is time to accelerate outreach to the Taliban, and search, in earnest, for a negotiated framework that would allow for prompt de-escalation.

Comments

[Michael Drew]

The old 'initiate negotiations of the terms of defeat from a position of panic' gambit, eh? Always a reliable recourse. I like it.

[Eric Martin]

Michael,

What is your alternative plan? After 9+ years, what should we do next? Continue "winning" as we have been, so as to obviate the need for negotiations altogether? With victory just around the corner?

Provide an alternative "gambit."

[james]

It's nice to once and for all find a web site where the blogger knows what they are talking about.

[dada]

I hope you will keep updating your content constantly as you have one dedicated reader here.

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Thus, not only are we creating a dynamic by which the Pakistani military/strategic class will only continue to receive massive infusions of aid for as long as militant groups remain prevalent and active in the region, but according to their (admittedly short-sighted) calculus, those militant groups are of strategic, long term value in terms of countering India.

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