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September 23, 2010

How the Military Boxed Obama in on Afghanistan
Posted by Michael Cohen

So I haven't had a chance to read Bob Woodward's latest leak-filled tome, but from my understanding this graf seems to sum up one of the book's key themes:

The detailed meeting-by-meeting account, titled "Obama's Wars," describes how the top military and civilian officials in the Pentagon essentially barred serious consideration of any course of action that involved deploying fewer than the 30,000 additional troops that Obama eventually approved. Despite the critiques from Lute, Jones and Eikenberry, the only options that were seriously considered in the White House involved 30,000 to 40,000 more troops.

This is a bit of confirmation of what some of us were writing last Fall: that the Pentagon was actively working NOT to give the President a host of military options for what to do in Afghanistan, but to narrow his options to that he had little choice but to support escalation and a COIN strategy. Knowing this now it provides some more context for the leak of McChrystal's strategic review last Fall and more important his comments in London disparaging Vice President Biden's support for a CT approach for Afghanistan: both were consistent with a concerted and orchestrated effort by the military to force the President's hand on Afghanistan policy. This was something by the way that was happening throughout the spring and summer of 2009 so that by the time the White House convened its strategic review, COIN-focused escalation was pretty much the only option on the table.

This takeaway from the Daily Beast is one of my favorite tidbits:

In addition to being master bureaucratic infighters, the generals are genius P.R. men. Woodward recounts scene after scene of Petraeus talking to the press when he’s specifically been ordered to stand down. Once, just before a Situation Room meeting with Obama, he made a surprise CNN appearance from the White House briefing room.

Yet, what is perhaps most interesting about the reaction to the Woodward book is that the White House sees it as a good thing for Obama because it shows the president being "decisive" and "pushing to get the right strategy."

Really? I suppose if you put aside the fact that Obama was pushed around by his generals, had his strategic options constricted, was forced into a 30,000 troop escalation that his skeptical civilian advisors believe won't work and he actually chose the decidedly wrong strategy for Afghanistan . . . well then, sure he comes across looking pretty good. Heckuva job, Barry!

And the book is yet another opportunity for the White House to clarify that they really, really mean it when they say July 2011 is an actual deadline for withdrawal no matter that Petraeus and his Pentagon cohorts seem to think otherwise. Woodward's reporting, not to mention Petraeus's recent PR offensive against leaving Afghanistan too soon, has left little doubt that we will see a reprise of the shenanigans that when on last Fall if the Administration seriously tries to implement a drawdown strategy for Afghanistan.

If the experience of Afghanistan shows us anything it is that we have a serious civilian-military relations problem in this country - what has turned into a crisis is that the civilians seem to think that when the generals are peeing on their leg . . . it's raining.

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Thanks for cutting to the chase here. Now I would like to see some examination of the role of the CIA and its cooperation with the military establishment. Maybe this is in the Woodward book, but I rather doubt it.

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Come on, Michael, this concocted image of Obama as a victim of his advisors should be the prerogatives of less serious observers. It's not only applied on military matters but on economic matters and others, It's childishly simplistic and just plain wrong. This guy is the president, the 'leader of the free world,' who actively sought the job, not some accidental walk-on with no power.

All Obama, the Commander-in-Chief, had to say was: "I want a complete range of options from the minimum, getting out, to the maximum, going full bore. Any questions?"

Now perhaps Obama IS weak. I believe that he is. But that's not the fault of the generals, is it.

Harry Truman knew what to do, and it wasn't to allow "a serious civilian-military relations problem in this country." Truman: "It's the fellows who go to West Point and are trained to think they're gods in uniform that I plan to take apart." And he did (MacArthur).

Let's call it what it is -- a weak president problem.

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