Back to Engagement? Posted by Patrick Barry

Just when you thought diplomacy with Iran was on life-support, the last 24 hours have seen potentially game-altering developments regarding international negotiations over its nuclear program.  First, yesterday afternoon Haaretz reported the following:

"Iran has given an assurance that it would stop enriching uranium to 20 percent purity if world powers agreed to a proposed nuclear fuel swap, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Wednesday."

Haaretz added that Iran has also re-stated its offer to export 2,646 pounds of its supply of low enriched uranium. 

Next, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs PJ Crowley told reporters yesterday that, “We hope to have the same kind of meeting coming up in the coming weeks that we had last October.”

At a minimum, these developments indicate a positive alignment of intentions that could resuscitate the engagement track many thought had been abandoned. With the caveat that "[i]t's difficult to know how seriously to take Iran's offer to halt its program of enriching medical-grade uranium in exchange for a nuclear fuel swap," The Atlantic's Max Fisher makes a strong case for why the time is right for a return to more active diplomacy between Iran and the West.

"If Iran is sincere and the deal goes through, it would not be a definitive solution to Iranian nuclear proliferation, as the country would continue to enrich fuel-grade uranium. It would, however, be a very big step towards reducing Iran's capacity for implementing a sudden "breakout" to weapons-grade uranium. Just as importantly, it would be an important trust-building opportunity that, if successful, could pave the way for winding down Iran's nuclear program and finally engaging the nation that Jimmy Carter once called an ally and 'oasis of stability.'"

I hope Fisher is right, though I suspect there's both more and less reason for optimism than his piece indicates. First, the good stuff. One of the less-scrutinized difficulties posed by the Turkey-Brazil deal proposed earlier this summer was that whatever merit it had as a confidence building measure, it was a very difficult political sell. In addition to the almost certain outcry a deal would have provoked on the right, Congress would have moved forward with its sanctions package (perhaps an even harsher version), and the President would have had little ability to stop it. Any confidence developed through the Turkey-Brazil agreement would have been dead in the water the moment Congress forced the President to sign "crippling sanctions" into law.

Today, the political climate in the U.S. is more favorable to negotiations. Though the right has not let up in the slightest, pushing hard for a more militaristic posture toward Iran, the Obama administration can now credibly say to a domestic audience that its strategy of balancing pressure and inducements has compelled Iran to negotiate. Following the passage of a new Security Council resolution, the engagement track is more politically defensible than it was before.

But there are also reasons for skepticism. As Haaretz and a Reuters story from earlier this week show, Iran's top negotiators have made positive gestures, which bode well for future talks.  The problem is that those gestures have been undercut by the statements of leadership elements back in Tehran. In an interview with PressTV Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad insisted there would be conditions on any negotiations over Iran's nuclear activities, even though Iran's envoy to the IAEA said just the opposite on the very same day, committing Iran to talks "without any conditions." This difference may prove to be less of an obstacle than it would appear, but it is still unclear whether future negotiations toward a deal enjoy the full support of the Iranian regime.  As we saw last October, political divisions in Iran are a potent, disruptive variable.

That said, what is true for Middle East peace is true for Iran negotiations: 'It's summertime, and we can perform miracles if we set our sights to them.'

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