Post - Toronto Summit Reflections Posted by David Shorr

Fresh from a whirlwind of G-8/20 summitry, I thought I'd share some assorted observations and impressions.

Non-binding not same as non-acting. Media skepticism about whether diplomatic conferences accomplish anything goes with the multilateral territory, and Toronto was no exception. There was a steady refrain of "the leaders are just putting out a lot of vague, toothless, and meaningless words rather than doing or committing to anything." This is a too-easy knock in general, but it confronts three particular problems in this case.

First, leveling a charge of complacency against the same G-20 that acted decisively to avert a great depression is a tough one. Second, unlike a traditional multilateral bodies, the Gs have no formal decision-making rules, legal charter or authority. So while the G groupings should be judged by their contributions to a more prosperous and peaceful global order -- like any intergovernmental forum -- expecting them to forge detailed binding agreements is barking up the wrong tree. Any fair critique of multilateral process should factor in the nature of the problem it confronts.

Which brings me to the third difficulty with the slams against the Toronto summit: the global macroeconomic imbalances at the center of its agenda. You can say a lot of things about the inequities of the globalized economy and the shortsightedness that left the United States with such a concentration of global consumption, and the debt that financed it. For the present purposes, though, the question is the policy and diplomatic "degree of difficulty" of bringing the major economies into better balance. And I don't see how one can argue that -- in the short time since the major economies even took on board the agenda of "strong, sustainable, and balanced economic growth" -- the leaders in Toronto should have been able to agree on a set of solutions. This is the point I made in Sewell Chan's post-game analysis in Tuesday's New York Times, in chorus with my close Canadian collaborator Alan Alexandroff (who blogs at Rising BRICSAM). In other words, the balanced growth agenda outlined in the Toronto communique should be filled under walk-before-run rather than all-talk-no-action.

It's a mixed-up world. The tensions over global imbalances pit nations oriented toward domestic consumption against export led economies -- not developed versus underdeveloped or neoliberal versus statist. That's why the US and Germany were at odds in Toronto (particularly once China made a related pre-summit gesture on its currency valuation). This may well emerge as a (non-)pattern of international politics; the fault lines might increasingly run every which way, varying according to the items on the multilateral agenda. On the one hand, this could make international cooperation dauntingly complex. On the other hand, the fluidity may be just the tonic for the sclerosis that often plagues multilateral diplomacy.

Pfennig wise and Euro foolish. The tensions in Toronto over public expenditures claimed a surprising victim: a G8 initiative combatting the spread of WMD. The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction provides for the cost of dismantling arms and tightening security at related facilities, having been launched in 2002 with a ten-year commitment and pledges of $20 billion. With two years remaining on its original mandate and President Obama's push to secure all the world's vulnerable nuclear material, supporters are already pointing the way for extension and expansion of the effort (my own Stanley Foundation recently published a brief by a top official responsible for the program, Amb. Bonnie Jenkins). Unfortunately, the Toronto summit was not the most hospitable venue for new budgetary pledges. This reaction released by the Fissile Materials Working Group voices the frustration of outside experts over the impasse.

South Korea rising / stepping up. The next G-20 summit venue will be Seoul in November. Coincidentally, that will also be the site of a 2012 summit following up on the recent Nuclear Security Summit (the G-47?) in Washington. This begs the question of whether the Republic of Korea is donning the mantle of global leadership as a conscious element of its foreign policy. Fortunately Korea's G-20 hosting committee held a briefing in Toronto, so I could ask its spokesperson. Here's the core of her response:

We believe it is time for Korea to not only share in terms of economic success but also in terms of responsibility and add its voice to the world in terms of trying to cooperate in major international policy decisions. The nuclear issue is one that is very close to Korea [so to speak] as well as G20 summit. Past economic experiences have taught us that it is vital to make sure your voice is included in terms of making global policy decisions. We take that responsibility very seriously and see this as stepping up to the responsibility Korea needs to take.

She also emphasized the great story Korea has to tell about its transition from developing nation to an industrialized one.

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