Grim Reality in Afghanistan Posted by Michael Cohen

As regular readers of DA are no doubt aware I'm pretty fiercely opposed to US military escalation in Kandahar. But if things are going to proceed - and they almost certainly will - the US should at least be clear about what we can hope to achieve and make the best of a bad situation. Over at the New York Daily News, I offer a few thoughts:

The seeding of good governance, the building up of the Afghan army and the extension of state legitimacy against a fearsome insurgent group will all take persistence, time and will. These are all elements to which the Taliban and not NATO has the advantage.

Quite simply, the ambitious goal of stabilizing southern Afghanistan is increasingly unrealistic - and with the lack of an effective host country partner to solidify gains, of dubious strategic value. Though it's likely - and regrettably - too late to call off a military strike in Kandahar, it will make things worse if any short-term ability to stabilize the city is confused with long-term success.

Instead, the effectiveness of U.S. forces in putting military pressure on the insurgents should be used as a springboard for pivoting quickly to political negotiations with the Taliban - a move that the Obama administration has resisted.

Negotiations cannot wait for the civilian population to turn against the Taliban, for the Afghan government to reform itself or for the U.S. to guarantee security in the region. Instead, Obama must use whatever near-term military advantage comes out of the Kandahar operations to accelerate direct talks with the Taliban and seek a political resolution to the conflict.

Read the whole thing here

Comments

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I agree that goal stabilizing southern Afghanistan is increasingly unrealistic.

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Negotiations cannot wait for the civilian population to turn against the Taliban, for the Afghan government to reform itself or for the U.S. to guarantee security in the region.

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