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May 17, 2010

Afghanistan Mission Creep Watch - The "Listen to Your CINC" Version
Posted by Michael Cohen

Over at Newsweek, Jonathan Alter has an interesting article about the Afghanistan review process last Fall. This passage is particularly noteworthy (and it jibes with a similar report by Rajiv Chandrasekaren earlier this year):

When he spoke to McChrystal by teleconference, Obama couldn't have been clearer in his instructions. "Do not occupy what you cannot transfer," the president ordered. In a later call he said it again: "Do not occupy what you cannot transfer." He didn't want the United States moving into a section of the country unless it was to prepare for transferring security responsibilities to the Afghans. The troops should dig wells and pass out seeds and all the other development ideas they had talked about for months, but if he learned that U.S. soldiers had been camped in a town without any timetable for transfer of authority he wasn't going to be happy.

Well the obvious question is "how can the president be happy?" After all since he ordered a troop increase for Afghanistan last December with the admonition that the US shouldn't occupy what it can's transfer, the US launched an offensive in Marjah and is preparing for another one in Kandahar later this summer that contradicts these orders. In neither place is the US anywhere close to being able to transfer authority to the Afghan Army.  Take Marjah and today's New York Times story about the situation there:

Farmers from the district of Marja, which since February has been the focus of the largest American-led military operation in Afghanistan, are fleeing the area, saying that the Taliban are terrorizing the population and that American troops cannot protect the civilians.

The departure of the farmers is one of the most telling indications that Taliban fighters have found a way to resume their insurgency, three months after thousands of troops invaded this Taliban stronghold in the opening foray of a campaign to take control of southern Afghanistan. Militants have been infiltrating back into the area and the prospect of months of more fighting is undermining public morale, residents and officials said.

. . . The pervasive Taliban presence forbids them from having any contact with or taking assistance from the government or coalition forces.

I'm at a loss in understanding how the Marine offensive in February doesn't run precisely counter to Obama's orders to McChrystal. We waged an offensive in an area that we can't even clear; where hold or build is basically a non-existent hope and where we are nowhere near being able to turn over to the distrusted and corrupt Afghan Army and police. And here's the worst part; we're about to repeat the same  exercise in Kandahar. 

The President's orders to McChrystal basically gave him instruction to quit the pointless exercise of trying to pacify southern Afghanistan - and instead put his troops in places where they might do some actual good. But rather than following the President's orders -- and not biting off more than we can chew -- McChrystal is embedding the military in places where we have little prayer of maintaining a long-term NATO or government presence and miring the country more deeply (and unnecessarily) in a counter-insurgency effort.

If Barack Obama is happy about this . . . he has to be the only one.

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This hill is truly like a chancre, Sordo thought, and we are the very pus of it. But we killed many when they made that stupidness. How could they think that they would take us thus? They have such modern armament that they lose all their sense with overconfidence. He had killed the young officer who had led the assault with a grenade that had gone bouncing and rolling down the slope as they came up it, running, bent half over. In the yellow flash and gray roar of smoke he had seen the officer dive forward to where he lay now like a heavy, broken bundle of old clothing marking the farthest point that the assault had reached. Sordo looked at this body and then, down the hill, at the others.
They are brave but stupid people, he thought. But they have sense enough now not to attack us again until the planes come. Unless, of course, they have a mortar coming. It would be easy with a mortar. The mortar was the normal thing and he knew that they would die as soon as a mortar came up, but when he thought of the planes coming up he felt as naked on that hilltop as though all of his clothing and even his skin had been removed. There is no nakeder thing than I feel, he thought. A flayed rabbit is as well covered as a bear in comparison. But why should they bring planes? They could get us out of here with a trench mortar easily. They are proud of their planes, though, and they will probably bring them. Just as they were so proud of their automatic weapons that they made that stupidness. But undoubtedly they must have sent for a mortar too.
One of the men fired. Then jerked the bolt and fired again, quickly.
Save thy cartridges," Sordo said.

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