What Rahm Emanuel Doesn't Know About Kyrgyzstan Posted by Patrick Barry

Last week I floated the suggestion that the recent history of basing politics in Kyrgyzstan meant that the toppling of the Kyrgyz government would in all probability have only a marginal impact on the status of the U.S. airbase in Manas.  While I still believe the likeliest scenario is that the U.S. will just revise its basing agreement with the new Kyrgyz government, it's worth mentioning that for those experts who actually know something about Central Asia, a purely transactional approach would be incredibly shortsighted. 

For instance, after an excellent background on Kyrgyzstan's current crisis (complete w\ a Rahm anecdote staight out of a Dana Milbank column), Central Asia specialist Eugene Huskey comes up with some depressing conclusions about current U.S. policy:

Allowing basing rights to marginalize all other dimensions of American foreign policy in former Soviet Central Asia has seriously undermined the moral authority and political influence of the United States in the region. The triumph of wartime tactics over a broad and consistent strategy of engagement with governments and societies in Central Asia has disillusioned a generation of local reformers and left the United States ill-positioned to compete with the region's rising hegemons, Russia and China.

Whether through design or neglect, the Obama administration has continued the cynical and short-sighted policies of the Bush years in Central Asia. The next time I meet Rahm Emanuel, I'll ask him to remind his boss that in the long run, Faustian bargains carry a heavy price.

And Alex Cooley, whom I cited in my previous post, makes a similar point:

The larger lesson for the Defense Department should be clear: placating authoritarian regimes with private contracts and pay-offs does not guarantee long-term stability of relations; in volatile political climates like Kyrgyzstan, it may, in fact, sow the seeds for discontent and political challenges to the regime. 

One way of looking at this situation is that the U.S. has failed to develop the kind of sustainable, comprehensive policy toward Central Asian countries like Kyrgyzstan, necessary for success in the war in Afghanistan.  I'm not sure.  The opposite seems just as plausible - that it's the war in Afghanistan, which has resulted in the the triumph of short-term bargaining over long-term strategy for Central Asian states. 

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