Democracy Arsenal

« Change We Shouldn't Believe in, but Should Try to Exploit Anyway | Main | Where Have All the Strategic Thinkers Gone? »

March 10, 2010

Some Iraqi Odds and Ends
Posted by Michael Wahid Hanna

Sunday was a good day for Iraq but it is unwise to draw overly broad conclusions based on this one day. And I am holding off on commenting about the government formation process until we get official results from the Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq (IHEC). But I did want to comment on two very important points because they have often shaped and warped the nature of commentary and analysis on last Sunday’s elections.

First, the question of Sunni participation has become garbled with the passage of time, perhaps due to Iraq’s unorthodox political calendar in 2005, when the country held three nationwide votes in succession: a January 2005 parliamentary election for a transitional national assembly, which was tasked with drafting a constitution; an October 2005 referendum to ratify Iraq’s constitution; and a December 2005 parliamentary election, which resulted in the seating of the current parliament and the selection of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Sunni Arab participation in the first of these elections was abysmally low. This was the result of an announced boycott of the political process by various Sunni Arab political and insurgent groups and the very real threat of retaliation against those who dared to vote in Sunni Arab areas. The effects of this boycott were magnified due to the fact that the country was organized into one electoral district as opposed to province by province voting. This was done for administrative reasons due to the inability to organize a more complicated election at that time, but the choice had very grave consequences for the political process and only served to amplify the lack of Sunni Arab participation.

This was not the case in the December 2005 elections when Sunni Arabs turned out to vote in numbers that corresponded or exceeded the levels of turnout in other provinces. Of course, Sunni Arabs also turned out in other mixed areas of the country, but the demonstration of Sunni Arab participation in those elections is most clear when looking at the results from the four Sunni-majority provinces (the demographics of the contested province of Tameem (or Kirkuk) are something of an unknown, although the Kurds almost certainly constitute a majority at this time): Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, and Salahaddeen.

Here are the official numbers from that election as released by IHEC:

Iraqi_election_numbers

The bottom line is that Sunni Arabs participated in the December 2005 elections. Keep that in mind next time you hear that Sunni Arabs boycotted the previous parliamentary elections because it is not accurate.

Second, I wanted to address the issue of voter turnout and participation. Most stories have led with the percentage of voters who turned out on Sunday, citing the approximately 62% released by IHEC. But this number is not particularly useful for comparative purposes and is, in fact, somewhat misleading. This is a result of the increase in voter registration rolls since 2005. This has been a politically-sensitive issue, particularly in Kirkuk, but without getting into too many details, the method for registering voters has changed since that time and is now based on passive registration. As such, the more relevant figure for comparison’s sake is the total number of voters. As you can see above, that number for in-country voting was under 12 million in December 2005. But according to an IHEC representative, total voter turnout on Sunday exceeded (Arabic) 12 million after figuring in 272,000 out-of-country votes. So the level of in-country participation appears to have held steady as opposed to suffering a serious decline, which has been the general implication of much of the press coverage.

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d83451c04d69e201310f8816a8970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Some Iraqi Odds and Ends:

Comments

You made my day.very informative post.This is what I was looking for.I shared these figures with my friends.They appreciated it a lot.

But as I tried to point out earlier, there is no long-term strategic planning processa line western wedding dresses in this Administration. I can't help but think that part of the reason for this is that Obama's foreign policy apparatus is manned by people who don't necessarily see what the QDR is suggesting as a bad thing. (And for what it's worth,Gucci leather Duchessa Medium Boston Bag my understanding is that there are at least some folks at the highest levels of the NSC who recognize that this is a serious problem in need of immediate rectification).

And I have to say while Spencer is correct that Adminal Mullen has laid out "the early phase of the first vision for the responsible use of military force from a Joint Chiefs Chairman since Colin Powell" - that vision is, inLouis Vuitton PM Patch Agenda Cover my humble opinion, completely wrong. Look at what Mullen had to say:

We must not look upon the use of military forces only as a last resort, but as potentially the best, first option when combined with other instruments of national and international power.

We must not try to use force only in an overwhelming capacity, but in the proper capacity, and in a precise and principled manner. And we must not rolex air kingshrink from the tug of war -- no pun intended -- that inevitably plays out between policymaking and strategy execution. Such interplay is healthy for the republic and essential for ultimate success.

I'm sorry, but to me this is pretty close to the mindset that got America involved in Iraq in the first place; the last thing America needs after the disaster of Iraq is a further loosening of the constraints on thebuys montblanc pens use of military force. If Mullen's view are reflective of the president's than I'm lot more depressed about the direction Obama is going to be taking American foreign policy.

And look Spencer may well be correct that "broad strategic constructs are taking form" but I just don't see it. I see a lot of discordant pieces and words that are being contradicted by actions. What I do see is an escalation in Afghanistan that only perpetuates the stranglehold that terrorism has over our foreign policy debates and a direct contradiction of the great speech that John Brennan gave last year in which he called for "the fight against terrorists and violent extremists" to be "returned to its right and proper place: no longer defining—indeed,tiffany gold accessoriesdistorting—our entire national security and foreign policy, but rather serving as a vital part of those larger policies." What I see is nibbling around the edges on defense spending; increased resources for civilian agencies and a rhetorical focus on development but none of the sort of big picture, systemic thinking that the country needs.

When in the morning links of london of life, we were always troubled in deciding which color of clothes we should buy, which types of toy we wanted to get on birthday and whether we should play with the bad
boys or girls; When in the noon of life ,we are in decision of whether it is meaningful to have a further education or to links of london charms search a suitable job, then get a stable salaries, and when to marry or how to find a good wife or husband who can live through the rest of life with us; When in the dusk of life , we are in difficulties to know how to live a happy and sterile life .
During that time, all of us want to advise from our families or friends, but the last decision belongs to ourselves .Therefore, we are strongly recommended to make these choices .
A boy and a girl fell in love with each other in middle school , they promised to spend their entire life together .Having graduated ,they were facing the reality of making a comfortable life .Latter ,the boy links of london sale found a job as a teacher ,while the girl went to be a secretary in a company .Three year past ,they got married and had a lovely child .However ,the mother of this kid didn’t satisfied with her present life ,because all of her female friends had become rich and they lived a luxurious life, which was admired and even envied by her .One day ,she companied one of them to go shopping ,they went into the linksofenglandstore ,the extravagant lady bought many jewelries at the same links of london bracelet time ,which surprised her and she dreamed to get these jewelries some day ,so she told her husband her desire ,but he didn’t buy for her ,because he had no money .Day by day ,this mother had the idea to search a better life ,so she chose to devoiced with her husband .Another years links of london sweetie had past ,she would marry a rich who could buy her anything that she wanted ,before their wedding ,she invited her vice-husband ,and told him the news ,he said nothing but some blessing words to her ,at the end of their party ,he took out a present and told her to have a look after their links of london necklaces wedding . She did it as he said, when she opened the wrapping paper ,in which there are her desired jewelries ,looking this ,she tore down..

Are you concern about what luxury lifestyle. Along with the improvement of life quality, someone not satisfy the current life conditions lived , and live a luxury life, buy all kinds of luxury products. I attach more importance healthy diet, also liked the artistic things, often go to see differs art gallery, gether more art news to enrich my life .

Are you concern about what luxury lifestyle. Along with the improvement of life quality, someone not satisfy the current life conditions lived , and live a luxury life, buy all kinds of luxury products. I attach more importance healthy diet, also liked the artistic things, often go to see differs art gallery, gether more art news to enrich my life .

Today's society, unemployment is growing pressure from the lofty position that many people become ordinary people, let alone here you? If you need to have a seat in the IT industry, 642-481 position, please certification of our brands:642-655
We also like you to provide a variety of authentication information:642-357

I just got a new pair of Nike Air Force One shoes, and I could not be happier. My custom Nike Air Force Ones are the coolest thing that I have seen in years. These ones are a special St. Patrick's day addition, done in bright green and white. Very retro. I am tempted to save my Nike Air Force One shoes for playing basketball, but the thing is, I just can not keep them off of my feet. Everyone who sees me gives me a look of envy when they check out my Nike Air Force One shoes, because they know that I've got the cash flow to buy the nice threads.

I just got a new pair of Nike Air Force One shoes, and I could not be happier. My custom Nike Air Force Ones are the coolest thing that I have seen in years. These ones are a special St. Patrick's day addition, done in bright green and white. Very retro. I am tempted to save my Nike Air Force One shoes for playing basketball, but the thing is, I just can not keep them off of my feet. Everyone who sees me gives me a look of envy when they check out my Nike Air Force One shoes, because they know that I've got the cash flow to buy the nice threads.

Yellow lens of Ray ban wayfarer can 100% filter UV, allowing infrared and 83% visible light through the lens.

Its greatest feature is that you can filter the sun's most dazzling blue.

Sunlight through the atmosphere, the most performance is the blue light, which is why you see the sky is blue. Yellow lens filters blue light, the natural scenery can be seen more clearly. So driving with a yellow lens Ray ban 2010 sunglasses, you can more clearly see from the vehicle.

Ray ban sunglasses sale


ray ban 2010 sunglasses sale


ray ban sunglasses sale


ray ban wayfarer message from http://www.eyewear-rayban.com

The comments to this entry are closed.

Emeritus Contributors
Subscribe
Sign-up to receive a weekly digest of the latest posts from Democracy Arsenal.
Email: 
Powered by TypePad

Disclaimer

The opinions voiced on Democracy Arsenal are those of the individual authors and do not represent the views of any other organization or institution with which any author may be affiliated.
Read Terms of Use