Re: What if the Next Iranian Regime is Just as Bad as This One? Posted by Shadi Hamid

In my last post, I argued that a democratic Iran, led presumably by the Green movement, would not only have a better foreign policy than the current regime but better relations with the U.S. as well. Daniel Larison and Spencer Ackerman both took issue with some of my claims. Larison writes:

One of the main points I was making was that the military establishment and IRGC will likely remain in place no matter what form the civilian government takes.

It is hard to imagine a powerful IRGC – being the apparently maximalist actor it is – ever allowing the Greens to take power, unseating its pro-Ahmedinijad allies in the process. A democratic Iran, if it comes to be, will be an Iran where the IRGC is neutralized or forced to become something it currently isn’t. Larison then raises a strong objection:

Besides, if we review the last ten years, can we really say that it has been the democracies of the world that have been 'less reckless' in the use of military force?

He points to the examples of the U.S., Georgia, and Israel. There is a bit of cherry picking here, and I suspect these are exceptions to the rule. The U.S., under Bush, was something of a historical anomaly and it was, in part, his recklessness that encouraged both Georgia and Israel to overreach militarily. That said, democracies, particularly young ones, can and do take needlessly aggressive action in their foreign policy, but it’s certainly possible that if they were autocracies, their actions would have been even more reckless and aggressive.

There are other causal mechanisms which would seem to suggest there is something about democracies, in particular, that affects and alters the formulation of foreign policy. Here are two hypotheses I offered in a post from last year:

1) If you delegate parts of the foreign policy apparatus to professional bureaucracies (as is usually the case in democracies), the result is a greater degree of professionalism and consistency, across different administrations.

2) Since democratically-elected government are accountable to the electorate, they have a greater incentive to demonstrate a willingness to increase ties, especially economic ties, with neighboring countries.

All of this raises some interesting questions which are difficult to address without doing large-N empirical studies. If anyone knows of any that support or undermine my and Larison's suppositions, please send them over.

Comments

[edge karte]

Hi,
By ratcheting up economic and political pressure on the Iranian regime while supporting the Iranian people, President Obama can synthesize his vision of a muscular American foreign policy outlined in Oslo with his landmark outreach to the Iranian people and the Muslim world at large....

[sesli sohbet]

Thnk You Editors..

[rolex watches]

Kansas State University is quietly becoming DOD's preferred venue for saying nice things strapless ball gown wedding dressesabout the State Department and USAID and warning about military dominance of US foreign policy, and that's a problem for Mitt Romney. Admiral Mullen,Gucci leather Shoulder Bag yesterday:

“US foreign policy is still too dominated by the military, too dependent upon the generalsLouis Vuitton Pochette Black and admirals who lead our major overseas commands and not enough on the State Department.”

Mullen's speech followed a 2007 Kansas State address by Secretary Gates, which called for a "dramatic increase in spending on the civilian instrumentsrolex replica watches of national security." Though not exactly news (Gates and Mullen have made such comments on several occasions), the timing could not be worse for the Mittster. phylogeny of montblanc This is because nestled among the bizarre foreign policy ideas catalogued in Romney's new book, No Apology, is his recommendation that diplomatic relations be turned over to an "ambassador from CENTCOM or any of the other regional military commands.” So, just as the Pentagon is reiterating its concern about the dangerous militarization tiffany glory centuriesof U.S. foreign policy, Mitt Romney is releasing a book arguing that U.S. foreign policy should be militarized even more? Yikes.

[watches sale]

Never frown ,when you are sad ,because you never know who is falling in love with your smile

[kokoty]

The people said that wearing mbt shoes was tired, but I felt very comfortable, especially after the dance I would wear mbt . I love Latin dance, exercise three to four hours each time, then the feet tired to death, I also like famous brand jordan shoes too , it know for its excellent quality and unque design ,air jordan is a good choice.

[shelving]

We all know these years china pallet racking in china develop very fast, now the design capacity of racking is very strong in china.
You can see every kind of china racking in china, includingdrive in racking,
cantilever racking, shelving,Longspan shelving, dexion racking,. We also have very experienced engineer to do the design and instlaation job.

as a whole contractor for refrigeration equipment, design, manufacturing, installation of cold store.

[ray ban 2010 sunglasses]

Yellow lens of Ray ban wayfarer can 100% filter UV, allowing infrared and 83% visible light through the lens.

Its greatest feature is that you can filter the sun's most dazzling blue.

Sunlight through the atmosphere, the most performance is the blue light, which is why you see the sky is blue. Yellow lens filters blue light, the natural scenery can be seen more clearly. So driving with a yellow lens Ray ban 2010 sunglasses, you can more clearly see from the vehicle.

Ray ban sunglasses sale

ray ban 2010 sunglasses sale

ray ban sunglasses sale

ray ban wayfarer message from http://www.eyewear-rayban.com

[nike-star]

NBA all star shoes
Nike all star shoes
Nike shoes

[stianless steel rings]

We don't take the luxury route, just playing crazy exaggeration and assertive personality. In addition we break the traditional and innovative stainless steel bracelet, stainless steel rings and so on. Our stainless steel jewelry has great stage effects. The color, texture and design are very fashion. The breakthrough in molding achieves the strong sense of art stainless steel jewelry. It experiences a foreign land and customs, tracking the trend of the international fashion accessories. Our company welcomes the large stainless steel jewelry wholesalers to e-mail consultation.
E-mail: sus360@hotmail.com
website: http://www.sus360.com

[propecia and hair loss]

Well greetings fellas thanks for the opportunity of post a message , also i would like to know more about Iranian Regime is very interesting , how can i get more information about it I want to sign up for more details.

[huo638671]

Generally speaking, if the clothing is very simple, there is no decoration, you can wear a brooch or pin. Brooch can be pinned to the collar on a jacket or suit, and the shoulders. However, if wearing a links london, it can only be worn on the inside of jacket, visible only from the neck, but not worn on the outside.Every twenty years the majority oflinks of london jewellerywill be out of date, only a single grain of precious stones, pearls and exceptions.

[sesli sohbet]

Very informative and trustworthy blog. Please keep updating with great posts like this one. I have booked marked your site and am about to email it to a few friends of mine that I know would enjoy reading..

[SesLiSoHbET]

Hi,
By ratcheting up economic and political pressure on the Iranian regime while supporting the Iranian people, President Obama can synthesize his vision of a muscular American foreign policy outlined in Oslo with his landmark outreach to the Iranian people and the Muslim world at large....

[TıkLa-SohbeT]

seslisohbet siteleri arasında ekol bir adres sestonum hemen sohbette başlamak icin sestonum 'tıklayınız..! seslisohbet ve seslichat adreslerinin gözdesi hemen tıklayarak seslisohbet yapmaya başlaya bilirsiniz..!

sestonum
seslichat
seslisohbet

[QodesQoM]

Türkiyenin ilk Hiphop Sitesi Hiphop, Gekko G Fan Sitesi Gekko G, Mask animasyon

[collections dvd]

This article explains how to construct a relatively complex THE FUGITIVE
application, a photo album, with THE FUGITIVE DVD
. We also illustrate the various features that THE FUGITIVE DVD COLLECTION
.

[seslisohbetci]

Dostluk ve kardesliğin tek adresi türkiyenin en elit seslisohbet portalına sesli sohbet
eglence müzik ask open sesli sohbet

[Gucci outlet]

I read a lot of posts today and yours is the best one i have read ever.I appreciate your attitute
toward life.It makes great sense,people should share useful informations together which will make
great progress of us.Send a wise man on an errand, and say nothing to him.ok,what i want to share with
u is a good gucci outlet which is on big sale on all gucci bags,handbags,accssories,if you like,click it.

[FFXIV GIL]

Are you fighting in Final Fantasy XIV for FFXIV Gil or Final Fantasy XIV Gil?
Can you suffer yourself being called newbie in FFXIV Gil game?
Are you seeking unofficial Buy FFXIV Gil cheats or Final Fantasy XIV guides in order to make Final Fantasy XIV Gil faster?
Can you get millions of Cheap FFXIV Gil in one day?
Even if you know how to farm Buy Final Fantasy XIV Gil you have to prepare enough Final Fantasy XIV Power Leveling first to buy height class Final Fantasy XIV Items, to upgrade your Final Fantasy XIV characters.
Buy aika gold
Then why not Buy FFXIV Gil from us?
In Final Fantasy XIV it's the fastest way FF14 Gil,for you to get rich. We are online 24 hours a day ready and 7 days one week to power up your FFXIV Gil accounts with FFXIV Gil. Here is the best place for the Final Fantasy XIV Online players to buy your Final Fantasy XIV Gil.
We are the professional website in FFXIV GIL sale.FFXIV GIL here,We are professional FFXIV Power Leveling online. We update price every single day to make sure we are the lowest in the market.(we don't compare price with scam sites which uses unbelievable low price to deceive.)
Our slogan:Cheapest price, Fastest delivery, Best service!

Cheap aika gold
In the 2 years we are in this field , AIKA Goldbuilt many business with tens of thousands of customers. They are very satisfied with our service.So if you want to get a log of Cheap FFXIV Gil ,no doubt ,come to our website to buy. Our customer service is ready for you on line now!(GM MMO)

[burberry handbags]

You want to own more elegant it? You want to own in the limelight it? If you want to become more own temperament, you can buy burberry handbags. British national treasure on behalf of the brand and the brand elegant taste of England is one of burberry bags. If you want to get their shine, shine you want to own the stage, then hurried to buy burberry handbags.

[Liushuanglin198606]

ugg boots clearance On my Egypt Air flight yesterday to Cairo, I witnessed one of the more intriguing in-flight exchanges that I can remember. A bearded, well-dressed man sitting a few seats behind me began shouting at the flight attendant.ugg boots clearance He was complaining that the in-flight movie was inappropriate. What are these “offensive images?” he asked. These included a 15-minute stretch of the movie where at least one woman at any given time was wearing a bikini. In a couple of scenes at a club, members of opposite sexes were dancing in close proximity while, it appeared, consuming alcoholic beverages. “Are we really all Westernized now?” the man behind me asked,ugg boots clearance as if posing a question to those of us in the back of the plane.

The man’s arguments were rather interesting. He pointed out that if you took a poll of the passengers,ugg boots outlet most would agree the film was morally offensive. He asked the attendant, “if we ask the passengers what they think and they agree with me, then what will you do?” The attendant responded, “we don’t take public opinion (ra’i al ‘am) on the airplane.” The man was right: most passengers, and most Egyptians – the vast majority of whom don’t drink, go to clubs, or wear bikinis – would object to the film’s content. But at what point do they have the right to restrict minority expressions of unfaithfulness?ugg boots clearance

It was an odd, amusing exchange that justified the otherwise unpleasant experience of flying on EgyptAir.ugg boots clearance But it was a reminder of the fundamental lack of consensus in the Arab world over the boundaries and limits of the state. There are two groups – Islamists and secular elites – with worldviews which couldn’t be more different. They live parallel lives in parallel worlds, with parallel institutions. They rarely intersect.ugg boots clearance One group believes it has both history and the Egyptian people on its side. The other side, considerably smaller in number, likely has neither. It does, however, have the power.

This stalemate has paralyzed the Arab world for decades now.ugg boots outlet

Sunday’s elections will be just another version of this.ugg boots clearance The main players are the Muslim Brotherhood – populist, religious, and righteous – and the regime coalition which, with its president soon to pass, finds itself in an uncertain place. Both sides are strong in different ways – and weak in others. Neither seems to have anything resembling a coherent strategy for dealing with the impending transition that is soon to come.

ugg boots clearance

[white iphone 4]

This was the first place that told me the answer,it?s all a bit new to us. The example above is something that I worry about as well, how to show your own genuine enthusiasm and share the fact that your product is useful in that case.

[iphone cases]

I’ve figured out a lot reading this document. Clearly very good information here. Blogposts just like this help make this blog worth coming back to for more info.

[Vension Black]

In the third part of the test I’m shooting an object from a pretty close distance (15 cm). Here you can really see a big difference between the different cameras and if you compare the 3G with the white iPhone 4 side by side you can see that they are miles apart.

[replica watches]

We always choose manufacturers who pay much attention to the product's research and development.
Why Buy Replica Watches from us
Showmywatch.com, promise you to obtain Replica Watch with highest qualtiy watchfrom us, for:

[Sohbet Arkadaslik]

what if nice post like...

[devlet hastaneleri randevu]

as Layla quickly accepts a pinfall via Mickie, just about as quickly as You can walk to the next arena, Layla. But you’ll still look fabulous.

[sun]

as Layla quickly accepts a pinfall via Mickie, just about as quickly as You can walk to the next arena, Layla. But you’ll still look fabulous.
masters in IT project management

[sun]

I got my hair cut today. It was not just an ordinary hair cut, I decided to give my hair to locks of love.I am going through problems myself and wanted to help out other people. Many people should do this, it only takes ten inches of your hair. It goes out to people who do not have hair for different reasons. I am really glad I did what I did cause I feel so much better knowing that I can help someone out, cause I might need someone to help me out you can never know. masters of health administration

[kimwipes 34120]

We cannot think things in a negative way. Hope for the best achievement this time

[冷夜]

ing exchange that justified the otherwise unpleasant experience of flying on Eg

[leasing agent job description]

I think its time to think positively and act accordingly.

[Alice15]

Nice article. Looking forward for the next one.
background checks

[daycare grants]

It can become true as all previous experience are never perfect.

[online degrees reviewed by students]

Hoping for a good future of the country.