If China Supports Iran Sanctions Posted by David Shorr

If China lends its support to a new set of Iran sanctions in the UN Security Council (or its tacit acceptance via an abstention), then I'd like to see retractions from all those who have confidently ruled this possibility out. After the mea culpas, we'd come quickly to the question of why China relented. The flurry of diplomacy currently under way gives an opportunity to preview different possible explanations for such a decision by Beijing, with the help of Greg Scoblete and Kevin Sullivan of RealClearWorld's Compass Blog, who aggregate and add to the analysis of Chinese motives.

In other words, if we start with China's countervailing interests -- keep oil flowing from Iran, maintain good relations with a key supplier, not sharing US concern over Iranian nukes, maybe even relishing political / strategic problems for the US -- what would explain Chinese support for sanctions? Our Compass Blog colleagues delve interesting questions about China's strategic interest in energy security in connection with the Obama administration's diplomatic message of the week. Washington is trying to shift Chinese leaders' focus from the oil they import from Iran to their broader dependence on the overall stability of petroleum supply on the global market (and, by extension, Middle East regional stability). The contracts China preserves in Iran will be cold comfort if Iranian nuclear progress leads to heightened conflict in the region, which then leads to supply constraints and huge price hikes.

The United States' partners in this diplomatic message are the Arab oil exporting countries, reportedly backed by promises to make up for any lost supply. [Hmmm, wonder what this says about mercantilism versus a single global market? I digress, sorry.] For Greg Scoblete, this means all credit for Chinese support goes to the Saudis, and none to the Obama administration's policy of engagement. I can understand the argument that the Saudis get credit for pushing the sanctions across the finish line, but this analysis applies a pretty steep discount to all the earlier diplomatic work.

What Kevin Sullivan finds interesting is to watch China become ensnared in the same geopolitical trap of oil addiction as the United States:

Hint, hint: the more you invest in the Middle East, the more you have to invest in keeping the region safe and secure. Or, in short, the Biggie Smalls Doctrine. See U.S. foreign policy (1980 - present). Does Beijing wish to embed itself in the region as the United States has? Does China want its consumption costs tied to that instability?

Sullivan calls this an "anti-hegemonic" appeal from the US to China, i.e. that China shouldn't want the job of hegemon for that region. The short answer -- well, long-term answer -- is to reduce the addiction to oil, and that goes for both of us. But the real short-term message to China is the same one as it is for a lot of issues: no more free-riding.

Beyond the hazards of this region's political thicket, I think the generic lesson is a positive one. The United States' strategy should be for all major powers to be status quo powers -- influential nations that share the responsibility for essential stability and a basically functioning world, as opposed to a more chaotic one. For all the screwed-up things about the Middle East, some of them with America's name on them, it could easily be more screwed up. Foreign policy shouldn't be entirely about stability; it should also be about progress and justice. But stability shouldn't be presumed or discounted either (see Iraq, invasion of).

Many criticisms of US policy are valid. Many others evade any responsibility for consequences and make blithe assumptions about how one international situation or another could either be changed or left alone. So if China supports sanctions against Iran, I'll interpret it as a sign that China recognizes the larger dangers of mounting regional tensions and not just the bilateral relationship with a trading partner.

Comments

[epppie]

laughable. As you know, the campaign of threats against Iran is what is destabilizing. China will give in because it will never stand alone on any issue. With Russia having been bludgeoned into going along by Nato threats, China too will go along. But they both know that they are giving in to a more unstable future, only because the alternative - standing up to US/Nato associated threats - would be even more unstable.

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China, as one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, is a linchpin for any new package of sanctions on Iran, which denies Western assertions it is seeking nuclear weapons and insists its program is for peaceful purposes.

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r4i karten gives the most succinct synopsis ever.

eppie believes little or no instability would result from Iran having virtual or actual nuclear weapons capability.

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China sees itself as the hegemon of Asia, and as the only Asian country allowed a seat on the UNSC it bears a heavy regional responsibility, particularly since Iran is a large oil exporter not only to China but also to Japan and India. It's East against West, and never bet against the East.

So if China supports sanctions against Iran it will only be for political purposes and China will have found a way to work around them in a way that benefits China, as they have done in the past. Obviously China will not endorse any US-backed ruling that harms their national interest, nor their regional standing. Why would a current winner throw in with a current loser for no valid reason?

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Why should China support the sanction? I don't see Iran threatening China in any way? Instead, Iran is one of the largest oil suppliers to China. The US has been trying to impose some US-made artificial "Iran threat" onto China. I hope China is not stupid enough to fall for it. Please do not forget that the US has also been promoting the idea of "China threat" to other countries too.

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