Don't Table the Timeline Posted by Patrick Barry

Certain conservatives are sure to latch on to the President’s re-commitment to a conditions-based timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan.  But as I asked last December, why should this be such a point of contention?  It might actually yield some positive dividends on one of the thorniest problems facing the mission: our leverage deficit.

This vehement opposition to timelines has never totally made sense to me.  Of course it's important to demonstrate commitment, but its equally important to gain leverage, something that timelines can give you.  One surefire way to make countries like China, Iran and Pakistan start taking affairs in their backyard more seriously is to make them aware that there is an end-date to their riding on America's coat tails.  Right now, Pakistan has less incentive to behave productively in Afghanistan, mostly because it's mostly consequence free. We're the ones holding the bag!  But if they're forced to reckon with a future where it's not as easy to hide in America's shadow, it would be reasonable to assume more responsible behavior. 

As the year moves forward, and fighting intensifies, calls to abandon the commitment to a timetable will likely grow louder.  As Ambassador Eikenberry's cables highlight, there's reason to doubt whether General McChrystal's famous "bell curve," on which the administration's timetable is based, was ever realistic to begin with. But this should not shake the administration's resolve.  With Afghanistan’s fate so dependent on the right kind of involvement by its neighbors, signaling an end to the era of coat-tail riding is a positive step, and the U.S. should  The alternative is staying forever. 

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